Varvara Gracheva vs Viktorija Golubic
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Varvara Gracheva
Varvara …: 53,3% Viktorija …: 46,7%
¿Por qué Varvara Gracheva?
UTR 12,08 vs 12,02 (+0,04) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Varvara … Viktorija … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,91 52,4%
Gamdom 1,96 1,93 51,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,88 2,14 53,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Varvara …: +3,3% Viktorija …: -3,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Varvara Gracheva
Ranking #77
UTR Rating 12,08 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 18/32 = 56,3%
Viktorija Golubic
Ranking #83
UTR Rating 12,02 Pro
UTR Ranking #99
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 21/37 = 56,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 7,0000
rank_ratio 1,0946
log_rank_ratio 0,0904
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 46,0000
best_rank_diff -4,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -0,5068
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -0,5420
surface_matches_ratio 0,8649
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 56,2500
surface_wr_p2 56,7568
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,5556
surface_wr_p2_stable 56,0976
p1_surface_matches 32,0000
p2_surface_matches 37,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1250
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,7983
first_serve_won_diff -1,9718
second_serve_won_diff 6,5216
bp_saved_diff -5,7830
bp_converted_diff -2,8744
aces_per_match_diff 1,9139
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -9,5000
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 7,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5867
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8242
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4444
serve_consistency_p1 11,2326
serve_consistency_p2 6,5500
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,0458
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0555
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0746
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0400
utr_p1 0,4788
utr_p2 0,4741
utr_advantage 0,3320
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23243
API ID 15372325
Gamdom ID 601037
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23243,
    "api_id": 15372325,
    "gamdom_id": 601037,
    "player1": "Varvara Gracheva",
    "player2": "Viktorija Golubic",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9100000000000001,
      "p2": 1.9100000000000001
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.96,
      "p2": 1.93
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.89,
      "p2": 1.89
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5326,
    "prob_p2": 0.4674,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5326,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 77,
      "utr_singles": 12.08,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 83,
      "utr_singles": 12.02,
      "utr_ranking": 99,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.75675675675676,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.08,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.02,
      "ranking": 99,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.4741176470588235,
    "utr_diff": 0.040000000000000924,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0945945945945945,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 46,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -5.783023648648644,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -20.000000000000004,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 56.25,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.75675675675676,
    "utr_advantage": 0.3319502074688873,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -4,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.09038406146826894,
    "rank_advantage": 7,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4444444444444444,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -0.5067567567567579,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.874408783783778,
    "p1_surface_matches": 32,
    "p2_surface_matches": 37,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.798293918918922,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5866666666666667,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8241758241758241,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.9138513513513513,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.971790540540539,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.125,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.232570750987543,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.550047145775925,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.045802733852163414,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.55555555555556,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.09756097560976,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 6.52162162162162,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8648648648648649,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -9.500000000000007,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.055499999999999994,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07456756756756755,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -0.5420054200542026,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}