Yue Yuan vs Iga Swiatek
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 12:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Yue …: 14,2% Iga …: 85,8%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 12,04 vs 12,90 (-0,88) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Yue … Iga … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 19,00 1,02 5,3%
Gamdom 24,00 1,01 4,2%
IA Fair Odds 7,06 1,17 14,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Yue …: +9,1% Iga …: -9,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Yue Yuan
Ranking #130
UTR Rating 12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #95
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 8/25 = 32,0%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking #2
UTR Rating 12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #3
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -128,0000
rank_ratio 0,0154
log_rank_ratio -4,1744
rank_tier_advantage -4,0000
points_diff -7776,0000
best_rank_diff -35,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -46,8462
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -38,7777
surface_matches_ratio 0,4808
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 32,0000
surface_wr_p2 78,8462
surface_wr_p1_stable 34,4828
surface_wr_p2_stable 76,7857
p1_surface_matches 25,0000
p2_surface_matches 52,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3600
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,4665
first_serve_won_diff -6,7442
second_serve_won_diff -8,4017
bp_saved_diff 0,1279
bp_converted_diff -6,9481
aces_per_match_diff -0,7869
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 62,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 33,9000
current_streak_diff 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 6,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7872
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0586
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,1667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 14,5936
serve_consistency_p2 12,6679
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 195,5540
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0520
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1605
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,8800
utr_p1 0,4753
utr_p2 0,5788
utr_advantage -7,0513
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23247
API ID 15373433
Gamdom ID 601591
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23247,
    "api_id": 15373433,
    "gamdom_id": 601591,
    "player1": "Yue Yuan",
    "player2": "Iga Swiatek",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T08:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 19.0,
      "p2": 1.02
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 24.0,
      "p2": 1.01
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 19.78,
      "p2": 1.01
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1417,
    "prob_p2": 0.8583,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8583,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 130,
      "utr_singles": 12.04,
      "utr_ranking": 95,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 32.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 2,
      "utr_singles": 12.9,
      "utr_ranking": 3,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
      "wr_surface_wins": 41,
      "wr_surface_total": 52,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.04,
      "ranking": 95,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.9,
      "ranking": 3,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4752941176470587,
    "utr_p2": 0.5788235294117647,
    "utr_diff": -0.8800000000000008,
    "rank_ratio": 0.015384615384615385,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": -7776,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.12792307692308214,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 6,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 62.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 32.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
    "utr_advantage": -7.051282051282056,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -35,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -4.174387269895637,
    "rank_advantage": -128,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.16666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -46.84615384615384,
    "bp_converted_diff": -6.948076923076918,
    "p1_surface_matches": 25,
    "p2_surface_matches": 52,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.466469230769228,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7872340425531915,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.7869230769230771,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 5,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -6.744230769230768,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.36,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 14.59363258403268,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.667908675741614,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 195.5539882589571,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 34.48275862068966,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -8.4016923076923,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.4807692307692308,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 33.89999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.05199999999999999,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.16046153846153843,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -38.777709359605915,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}