Yue Yuan vs Iga Swiatek
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 12:15
19 Ene 2026, 12:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Yue …: 14,2%
Iga …: 85,8%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 12,04 vs 12,90
(-0,88)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Yue … | Iga … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 19,00 | 1,02 | 5,3% |
| Gamdom | 24,00 | 1,01 | 4,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 7,06 | 1,17 | 14,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Yue …: +9,1%
Iga …: -9,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Yue Yuan
Ranking
#130
UTR Rating
12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking
#95
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
8/25 = 32,0%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking
#2
UTR Rating
12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -128,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0154 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -4,1744 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -4,0000 | |
| points_diff | -7776,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -35,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -46,8462 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -38,7777 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,4808 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 32,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 78,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 34,4828 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 76,7857 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 25,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 52,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,3600 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9167 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -7,4665 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -6,7442 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -8,4017 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,1279 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -6,9481 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,7869 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 62,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 33,9000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7872 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0586 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,1667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 14,5936 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 12,6679 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 195,5540 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0520 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1605 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,8800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4753 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5788 | |
| utr_advantage | -7,0513 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23247
API ID
15373433
Gamdom ID
601591
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23247,
"api_id": 15373433,
"gamdom_id": 601591,
"player1": "Yue Yuan",
"player2": "Iga Swiatek",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T08:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 19.0,
"p2": 1.02
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 24.0,
"p2": 1.01
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 19.78,
"p2": 1.01
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1417,
"prob_p2": 0.8583,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8583,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 130,
"utr_singles": 12.04,
"utr_ranking": 95,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 32.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 25,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 2,
"utr_singles": 12.9,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
"wr_surface_wins": 41,
"wr_surface_total": 52,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.04,
"ranking": 95,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.9,
"ranking": 3,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5788235294117647,
"utr_diff": -0.8800000000000008,
"rank_ratio": 0.015384615384615385,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
"points_diff": -7776,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0.12792307692308214,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 6,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 62.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 32.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
"utr_advantage": -7.051282051282056,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -35,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -4.174387269895637,
"rank_advantage": -128,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.16666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -46.84615384615384,
"bp_converted_diff": -6.948076923076918,
"p1_surface_matches": 25,
"p2_surface_matches": 52,
"serve_quality_diff": -7.466469230769228,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7872340425531915,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.7869230769230771,
"combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 5,
"rank_tier_advantage": -4,
"first_serve_won_diff": -6.744230769230768,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.36,
"serve_consistency_p1": 14.59363258403268,
"serve_consistency_p2": 12.667908675741614,
"surface_rank_synergy": 195.5539882589571,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 34.48275862068966,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
"second_serve_won_diff": -8.4016923076923,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.4807692307692308,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 33.89999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.05199999999999999,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.16046153846153843,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -38.777709359605915,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}