Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Ajla Tomljanovic
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ajla Tomljanovic
Yuliia …: 19,2% Ajla …: 80,8%
¿Por qué Ajla Tomljanovic?
UTR 12,00 vs 12,26 (-0,37) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Yuliia … Ajla … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,00 1,80 50,0%
Gamdom 2,16 1,76 46,3%
IA Fair Odds 5,20 1,24 19,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Yuliia …: -28,1% Ajla …: +28,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Yuliia Starodubtseva
Ranking #110
UTR Rating 12,00 Pro
UTR Ranking #106
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 10/27 = 37,0%
Ajla Tomljanovic
Ranking #78
UTR Rating 12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #54
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 14/27 = 51,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -34,0000
rank_ratio 0,6909
log_rank_ratio -0,3697
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -150,0000
best_rank_diff -31,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -14,8148
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -11,6129
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 37,0370
surface_wr_p2 51,8519
surface_wr_p1_stable 38,7097
surface_wr_p2_stable 51,6129
p1_surface_matches 27,0000
p2_surface_matches 27,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2593
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9000
p2_confidence 0,9000
combined_confidence 0,9000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,0556
first_serve_won_diff -5,2000
second_serve_won_diff -3,0000
bp_saved_diff -1,7000
bp_converted_diff -0,1000
aces_per_match_diff -1,7778
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 38,0000
momentum_diff 54,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 30,7500
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,4333
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5288
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,9972
serve_consistency_p2 9,2820
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 5,4777
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0956
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0155
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,3700
utr_p1 0,4541
utr_p2 0,4976
utr_advantage -3,0718
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23249
API ID 15373438
Gamdom ID 601588
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23249,
    "api_id": 15373438,
    "gamdom_id": 601588,
    "player1": "Yuliia Starodubtseva",
    "player2": "Ajla Tomljanovic",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T06:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.16,
      "p2": 1.76
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.09,
      "p2": 1.73
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1923,
    "prob_p2": 0.8077,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8077,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 110,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 106,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 37.03703703703704,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 78,
      "utr_singles": 12.26,
      "utr_ranking": 54,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.85185185185185,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 106,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.26,
      "ranking": 54,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.45411764705882346,
    "utr_p2": 0.49764705882352944,
    "utr_diff": -0.370000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6909090909090909,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 38.0,
    "points_diff": -150,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.6999999999999957,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 54.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9,
    "surface_wr_p1": 37.03703703703704,
    "surface_wr_p2": 51.85185185185185,
    "utr_advantage": -3.0718140307181487,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -31,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.3697470255060851,
    "rank_advantage": -34,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -14.81481481481481,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.10000000000000142,
    "p1_surface_matches": 27,
    "p2_surface_matches": 27,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.055555555555557,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.43333333333333335,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5288461538461539,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.7777777777777777,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.200000000000003,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.25925925925925924,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.997191520910045,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.282039318929348,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 5.477733711201259,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 38.70967741935484,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.61290322580645,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 30.75,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.09562962962962956,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.01548148148148154,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -11.612903225806448,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}