Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Ajla Tomljanovic
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 10:10
19 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ajla Tomljanovic
Yuliia …: 19,2%
Ajla …: 80,8%
¿Por qué Ajla Tomljanovic?
UTR 12,00 vs 12,26
(-0,37)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Yuliia … | Ajla … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,00 | 1,80 | 50,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,16 | 1,76 | 46,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 5,20 | 1,24 | 19,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Yuliia …: -28,1%
Ajla …: +28,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Yuliia Starodubtseva
Ranking
#110
UTR Rating
12,00 Pro
UTR Ranking
#106
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
10/27 = 37,0%
Ajla Tomljanovic
Ranking
#78
UTR Rating
12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#54
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
14/27 = 51,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -34,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6909 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,3697 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -150,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -31,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -14,8148 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -11,6129 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 37,0370 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 51,8519 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 38,7097 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 51,6129 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,2593 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -7,0556 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,2000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -3,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,7000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,1000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,7778 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 54,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 30,7500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,4333 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5288 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,9972 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,2820 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 5,4777 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0956 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0155 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,3700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4541 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4976 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,0718 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23249
API ID
15373438
Gamdom ID
601588
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23249,
"api_id": 15373438,
"gamdom_id": 601588,
"player1": "Yuliia Starodubtseva",
"player2": "Ajla Tomljanovic",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T06:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.0,
"p2": 1.8
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.16,
"p2": 1.76
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.09,
"p2": 1.73
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1923,
"prob_p2": 0.8077,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8077,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 110,
"utr_singles": 12.0,
"utr_ranking": 106,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 37.03703703703704,
"wr_surface_wins": 10,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 78,
"utr_singles": 12.26,
"utr_ranking": 54,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 51.85185185185185,
"wr_surface_wins": 14,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.0,
"ranking": 106,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 54,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.49764705882352944,
"utr_diff": -0.370000000000001,
"rank_ratio": 0.6909090909090909,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 38.0,
"points_diff": -150,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.6999999999999957,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 54.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9,
"p2_confidence": 0.9,
"surface_wr_p1": 37.03703703703704,
"surface_wr_p2": 51.85185185185185,
"utr_advantage": -3.0718140307181487,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -31,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.3697470255060851,
"rank_advantage": -34,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -14.81481481481481,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.10000000000000142,
"p1_surface_matches": 27,
"p2_surface_matches": 27,
"serve_quality_diff": -7.055555555555557,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.43333333333333335,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5288461538461539,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.7777777777777777,
"combined_confidence": 0.9,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.200000000000003,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.25925925925925924,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.997191520910045,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.282039318929348,
"surface_rank_synergy": 5.477733711201259,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 38.70967741935484,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.61290322580645,
"second_serve_won_diff": -3.0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 30.75,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.09562962962962956,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.01548148148148154,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -11.612903225806448,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}