Zarina Diyas vs Paula Badosa
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 10:45
19 Ene 2026, 10:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Paula Badosa
Zarina …: 12,5%
Paula …: 87,5%
¿Por qué Paula Badosa?
UTR 11,49 vs 12,62
(-1,11)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Zarina … | Paula … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 15,00 | 1,03 | 6,7% |
| Gamdom | 17,00 | 1,03 | 5,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 7,99 | 1,14 | 12,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Zarina …: +6,1%
Paula …: -6,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Zarina Diyas
Ranking
#290
UTR Rating
11,49 Pro
UTR Ranking
#265
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
1/4 = 25,0%
Paula Badosa
Ranking
#26
UTR Rating
12,62 Pro
UTR Ranking
#12
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
13/22 = 59,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -259,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0912 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,3944 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -3,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1443,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -29,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -34,0909 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -16,6762 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,1818 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 25,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 59,0909 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 27,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 57,6923 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 4,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 22,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,5000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3533 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,5433 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -16,5568 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -10,2227 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -13,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -12,5727 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,1864 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,7727 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 76,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 43,5700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 49,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7886 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,4089 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,4141 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 81,6270 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0090 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1681 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,1100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4106 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5412 | |
| utr_advantage | -9,2154 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23250
API ID
15372306
Gamdom ID
601064
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23250,
"api_id": 15372306,
"gamdom_id": 601064,
"player1": "Zarina Diyas",
"player2": "Paula Badosa",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T06:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 15.0,
"p2": 1.03
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 17.0,
"p2": 1.03
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 13.93,
"p2": 1.02
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1251,
"prob_p2": 0.8749,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8749,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"ranking": 290,
"utr_singles": 11.49,
"utr_ranking": 265,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 25.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 1,
"wr_surface_total": 4,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 26,
"utr_singles": 12.62,
"utr_ranking": 12,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 59.09090909090909,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 22,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 265,
"division": "Pro",
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},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 12,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": -1.1099999999999994,
"rank_ratio": 0.0912280701754386,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 22.0,
"points_diff": -1443,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -12.57272727272727,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 75.99999999999999,
"p1_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
"surface_wr_p1": 25.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 59.09090909090909,
"utr_advantage": -9.215442092154417,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -29,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.3943926422471686,
"rank_advantage": -259,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -3,
"surface_wr_diff": -34.09090909090909,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.1863636363636303,
"p1_surface_matches": 4,
"p2_surface_matches": 22,
"serve_quality_diff": -16.556818181818187,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7886178861788617,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.7727272727272725,
"combined_confidence": 0.5433333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 6,
"rank_tier_advantage": -3,
"first_serve_won_diff": -10.222727272727276,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.5,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.408874725742926,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.4141312371761,
"surface_rank_synergy": 81.62702189478985,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 27.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.692307692307686,
"second_serve_won_diff": -13.0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.18181818181818182,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 43.56999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 49,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.009000000000000008,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.16809090909090907,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.67615384615384,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
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"feature_importance": {}
}