Zarina Diyas vs Paula Badosa
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 10:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Paula Badosa
Zarina …: 12,5% Paula …: 87,5%
¿Por qué Paula Badosa?
UTR 11,49 vs 12,62 (-1,11) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Zarina … Paula … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 15,00 1,03 6,7%
Gamdom 17,00 1,03 5,9%
IA Fair Odds 7,99 1,14 12,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Zarina …: +6,1% Paula …: -6,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Zarina Diyas
Ranking #290
UTR Rating 11,49 Pro
UTR Ranking #265
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 1/4 = 25,0%
Paula Badosa
Ranking #26
UTR Rating 12,62 Pro
UTR Ranking #12
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 13/22 = 59,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -259,0000
rank_ratio 0,0912
log_rank_ratio -2,3944
rank_tier_advantage -3,0000
points_diff -1443,0000
best_rank_diff -29,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -34,0909
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -16,6762
surface_matches_ratio 0,1818
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 25,0000
surface_wr_p2 59,0909
surface_wr_p1_stable 27,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,6923
p1_surface_matches 4,0000
p2_surface_matches 22,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,5000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3533
p2_confidence 0,7333
combined_confidence 0,5433
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -16,5568
first_serve_won_diff -10,2227
second_serve_won_diff -13,0000
bp_saved_diff -12,5727
bp_converted_diff 3,1864
aces_per_match_diff -3,7727
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 22,0000
momentum_diff 76,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 43,5700
current_streak_diff 6,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 49,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 5,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7886
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6000
serve_consistency_p1 4,4089
serve_consistency_p2 9,4141
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 81,6270
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0090
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1681
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,1100
utr_p1 0,4106
utr_p2 0,5412
utr_advantage -9,2154
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23250
API ID 15372306
Gamdom ID 601064
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23250,
    "api_id": 15372306,
    "gamdom_id": 601064,
    "player1": "Zarina Diyas",
    "player2": "Paula Badosa",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T06:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 15.0,
      "p2": 1.03
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 17.0,
      "p2": 1.03
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 13.93,
      "p2": 1.02
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1251,
    "prob_p2": 0.8749,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8749,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 290,
      "utr_singles": 11.49,
      "utr_ranking": 265,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 25.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 4,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 26,
      "utr_singles": 12.62,
      "utr_ranking": 12,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 59.09090909090909,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 22,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.49,
      "ranking": 265,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.62,
      "ranking": 12,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4105882352941177,
    "utr_p2": 0.5411764705882353,
    "utr_diff": -1.1099999999999994,
    "rank_ratio": 0.0912280701754386,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 22.0,
    "points_diff": -1443,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -12.57272727272727,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 75.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
    "surface_wr_p1": 25.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 59.09090909090909,
    "utr_advantage": -9.215442092154417,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -29,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.3943926422471686,
    "rank_advantage": -259,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": -34.09090909090909,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.1863636363636303,
    "p1_surface_matches": 4,
    "p2_surface_matches": 22,
    "serve_quality_diff": -16.556818181818187,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7886178861788617,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.7727272727272725,
    "combined_confidence": 0.5433333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 6,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -10.222727272727276,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.5,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.408874725742926,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.4141312371761,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 81.62702189478985,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 27.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.692307692307686,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -13.0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.18181818181818182,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 43.56999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 49,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.009000000000000008,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.16809090909090907,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.67615384615384,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}