Sebastián Báez vs Jakub Mensik
Auckland | Hard | Final
17 Ene 2026, 05:00
17 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jakub Mensik
Sebastián …: 15,6%
Jakub …: 84,4%
¿Por qué Jakub Mensik?
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sebastián … | Jakub … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,75 | 1,44 | 36,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 6,40 | 1,19 | 15,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Sebastián …: -18,7%
Jakub …: +18,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastián Báez
Ranking
#36
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
3/14 = 21,4%
Jakub Mensik
Ranking
#17
UTR Rating
15,40 Pro
UTR Ranking
#37
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
20/32 = 62,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -21,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,4615 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,7732 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -875,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -41,0714 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -24,7778 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,4375 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 21,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 27,7778 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 61,1111 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,5714 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7433 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -30,2266 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -7,9054 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -3,7107 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -13,4036 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 11,8643 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -12,5804 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5441 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1710 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6190 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,7415 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,4086 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 31,7560 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,2647 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1040 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8729 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8729 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23264
API ID
15327196
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Final
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23264,
"api_id": 15327196,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Sebasti\u00e1n B\u00e1ez",
"player2": "Jakub Mensik",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Final",
"date": "2026-01-17T01:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.75,
"p2": 1.44
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.73,
"p2": 1.45
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1563,
"prob_p2": 0.8437,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8437,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 36,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 21.428571428571427,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 17,
"utr_singles": 15.4,
"utr_ranking": 37,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.5,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.4,
"ranking": 37,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8729411764705882,
"utr_p2": 0.8729411764705882,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.46153846153846156,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -875,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -13.403571428571418,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 6,
"match_load_p2": 6,
"momentum_diff": 10.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 21.428571428571427,
"surface_wr_p2": 62.5,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -2,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.7731898882334817,
"rank_advantage": -21,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6190476190476191,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -41.07142857142857,
"bp_converted_diff": 11.86428571428571,
"p1_surface_matches": 14,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": -30.226607142857134,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5441176470588235,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1709844559585492,
"aces_per_match_diff": -12.580357142857142,
"combined_confidence": 0.7433333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -7.905357142857127,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.5714285714285714,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.741490475689599,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.408610430714726,
"surface_rank_synergy": 31.756013266732282,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 27.77777777777778,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.111111111111114,
"second_serve_won_diff": -3.710714285714282,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.4375,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.2647142857142857,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10399999999999998,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -24.777777777777782,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}