Sebastián Báez vs Jakub Mensik
Auckland | Hard | Final
17 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jakub Mensik
Sebastián …: 15,6% Jakub …: 84,4%
¿Por qué Jakub Mensik?
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sebastián … Jakub … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,75 1,44 36,4%
IA Fair Odds 6,40 1,19 15,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Sebastián …: -18,7% Jakub …: +18,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastián Báez
Ranking #36
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 3/14 = 21,4%
Jakub Mensik
Ranking #17
UTR Rating 15,40 Pro
UTR Ranking #37
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 20/32 = 62,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -21,0000
rank_ratio 0,4615
log_rank_ratio -0,7732
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -875,0000
best_rank_diff -2,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -41,0714
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -24,7778
surface_matches_ratio 0,4375
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 21,4286
surface_wr_p2 62,5000
surface_wr_p1_stable 27,7778
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,1111
p1_surface_matches 14,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,5714
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4867
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7433
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -30,2266
first_serve_won_diff -7,9054
second_serve_won_diff -3,7107
bp_saved_diff -13,4036
bp_converted_diff 11,8643
aces_per_match_diff -12,5804
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 6,0000
match_load_p2 6,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5441
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1710
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6190
serve_consistency_p1 4,7415
serve_consistency_p2 7,4086
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 31,7560
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2647
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1040
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8729
utr_p2 0,8729
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23264
API ID 15327196
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23264,
    "api_id": 15327196,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Sebasti\u00e1n B\u00e1ez",
    "player2": "Jakub Mensik",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Final",
    "date": "2026-01-17T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.44
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.73,
      "p2": 1.45
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1563,
    "prob_p2": 0.8437,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8437,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 36,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 21.428571428571427,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 14,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 17,
      "utr_singles": 15.4,
      "utr_ranking": 37,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.4,
      "ranking": 37,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8729411764705882,
    "utr_p2": 0.8729411764705882,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 0.46153846153846156,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -875,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -13.403571428571418,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 6,
    "match_load_p2": 6,
    "momentum_diff": 10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 21.428571428571427,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.5,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -2,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.7731898882334817,
    "rank_advantage": -21,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6190476190476191,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -41.07142857142857,
    "bp_converted_diff": 11.86428571428571,
    "p1_surface_matches": 14,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": -30.226607142857134,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5441176470588235,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1709844559585492,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -12.580357142857142,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7433333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.905357142857127,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.5714285714285714,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.741490475689599,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.408610430714726,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 31.756013266732282,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 27.77777777777778,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.111111111111114,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.710714285714282,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.4375,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.2647142857142857,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10399999999999998,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -24.777777777777782,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}