Ugo Humbert vs Tomas Machac
Adelaide | Hard | Final
17 Ene 2026, 08:30
17 Ene 2026, 08:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ugo Humbert
Ugo …: 59,2%
Tomas …: 40,8%
¿Por qué Ugo Humbert?
UTR 15,43 vs 15,26
(+0,05)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Ugo … | Tomas … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,62 | 2,30 | 61,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,69 | 2,45 | 59,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Ugo …: +0,5%
Tomas …: -0,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ugo Humbert
Ranking
#33
UTR Rating
15,43 Pro
UTR Ranking
#38
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
18/29 = 62,1%
Tomas Machac
Ranking
#24
UTR Rating
15,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#56
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
17/29 = 58,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,9722 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,0282 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -5,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 7,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 3,4483 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 2,9293 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,0690 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 58,6207 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,6061 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 57,5758 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2414 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 3,7521 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,1897 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,2345 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,0931 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -7,6345 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,4138 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7136 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0582 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4444 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6429 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,9023 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,1156 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -0,0971 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1217 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0852 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8765 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8706 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,3241 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23288
API ID
15327353
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Final
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23288,
"api_id": 15327353,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Ugo Humbert",
"player2": "Tomas Machac",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Final",
"date": "2026-01-17T04:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.62,
"p2": 2.3
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.18
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5919,
"prob_p2": 0.4081,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5919,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 33,
"utr_singles": 15.43,
"utr_ranking": 38,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.06896551724138,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 24,
"utr_singles": 15.26,
"utr_ranking": 56,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.43,
"ranking": 38,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.26,
"ranking": 56,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.876470588235294,
"utr_p2": 0.8705882352941177,
"utr_diff": 0.049999999999998934,
"rank_ratio": 0.9722222222222222,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -5,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.0931034482758548,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.06896551724138,
"surface_wr_p2": 58.620689655172406,
"utr_advantage": 0.32414910858994445,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 7,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.028170876966696335,
"rank_advantage": -1,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 3.448275862068975,
"bp_converted_diff": -7.634482758620699,
"p1_surface_matches": 29,
"p2_surface_matches": 29,
"serve_quality_diff": 3.752068965517239,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7135678391959799,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0582010582010581,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.4137931034482758,
"combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.1896551724137936,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2413793103448276,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.902270004959873,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.1155915850591045,
"surface_rank_synergy": -0.09714095505757384,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.60606060606061,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.57575757575758,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.234482758620679,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.12168965517241381,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08520689655172409,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.92929292929293,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}