Ugo Humbert vs Tomas Machac
Adelaide | Hard | Final
17 Ene 2026, 08:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ugo Humbert
Ugo …: 59,2% Tomas …: 40,8%
¿Por qué Ugo Humbert?
UTR 15,43 vs 15,26 (+0,05) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Ugo … Tomas … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,30 61,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,69 2,45 59,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Ugo …: +0,5% Tomas …: -0,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ugo Humbert
Ranking #33
UTR Rating 15,43 Pro
UTR Ranking #38
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 18/29 = 62,1%
Tomas Machac
Ranking #24
UTR Rating 15,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #56
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 17/29 = 58,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -1,0000
rank_ratio 0,9722
log_rank_ratio -0,0282
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -5,0000
best_rank_diff 7,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 3,4483
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 2,9293
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,0690
surface_wr_p2 58,6207
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,6061
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,5758
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2414
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,9667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 3,7521
first_serve_won_diff 3,1897
second_serve_won_diff -2,2345
bp_saved_diff 1,0931
bp_converted_diff -7,6345
aces_per_match_diff 1,4138
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7136
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0582
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4444
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6429
serve_consistency_p1 4,9023
serve_consistency_p2 6,1156
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,0971
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1217
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0852
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0500
utr_p1 0,8765
utr_p2 0,8706
utr_advantage 0,3241
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23288
API ID 15327353
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23288,
    "api_id": 15327353,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Ugo Humbert",
    "player2": "Tomas Machac",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Final",
    "date": "2026-01-17T04:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.62,
      "p2": 2.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.18
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5919,
    "prob_p2": 0.4081,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5919,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 33,
      "utr_singles": 15.43,
      "utr_ranking": 38,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.06896551724138,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 24,
      "utr_singles": 15.26,
      "utr_ranking": 56,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 15.43,
      "ranking": 38,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.26,
      "ranking": 56,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.8705882352941177,
    "utr_diff": 0.049999999999998934,
    "rank_ratio": 0.9722222222222222,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -5,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.0931034482758548,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.06896551724138,
    "surface_wr_p2": 58.620689655172406,
    "utr_advantage": 0.32414910858994445,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 7,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.028170876966696335,
    "rank_advantage": -1,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 3.448275862068975,
    "bp_converted_diff": -7.634482758620699,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": 3.752068965517239,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7135678391959799,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0582010582010581,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.4137931034482758,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.1896551724137936,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2413793103448276,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.902270004959873,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.1155915850591045,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.09714095505757384,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.60606060606061,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.57575757575758,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.234482758620679,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.12168965517241381,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08520689655172409,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.92929292929293,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}