Natalia Pietras-Surmacz vs Julia Terziyska
UTR Belgrade W01 | Clay |
19 Ene 2026, 12:00
19 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Julia Terziyska
Natalia …: 23,4%
Julia …: 76,6%
¿Por qué Julia Terziyska?
UTR 8,00 vs 10,00
(-2,00)
— Ventaja clara
Natalia …
W20-L33
38% WR
vs UTR 8,9
L4
Julia …
W61-L9
87% WR
vs UTR 9,5
L1
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Natalia … | Julia … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamdom | 9,00 | 11,1% | |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,28 | 1,30 | 23,4% |
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Natalia Pietras-Surmacz
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
8,00 General
UTR Ranking
#4999
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
17% (6p)
WR Clay
0/0 = 0,0%
Julia Terziyska
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
10,00 General
UTR Ranking
#920
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (5p)
WR Clay
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Natalia Pietras-Surmacz
Record 2025
20W - 33L (38%)
Racha
4L
UTR Oponentes
8,9
Últimos 5:
L
L
L
L
W
Julia Terziyska
Record 2025
61W - 9L (87%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
9,5
Últimos 5:
L
W
W
W
W
Análisis Momentum
Julia Terziyska ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 9,5 vs 8,9).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -1,5000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 6,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 14,4038 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,6082 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -2,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,2353 | |
| utr_advantage | -22,2222 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23431
API ID
15380419
Gamdom ID
605401
Torneo
UTR Belgrade W01
Superficie
Clay
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23431,
"api_id": 15380419,
"gamdom_id": 605401,
"player1": "Natalia Pietras-Surmacz",
"player2": "Julia Terziyska",
"tournament": "UTR Belgrade W01",
"surface": "clay",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-19T08:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 9.0,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 11.76,
"p2": 1.09
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2335,
"prob_p2": 0.7665,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7665,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 8.0,
"utr_ranking": 4999,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 20,
"utr_v4_losses": 33,
"utr_v4_wr": 37.735849056603776,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 4,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 8.87,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 9.33,
"opponent_name": "Melissa Boyden"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 10.0,
"opponent_name": "Julia Terziyska"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 8.0,
"opponent_name": "Milica Stosovic"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 9.0,
"opponent_name": "Aleksandra Djokic"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 9.25,
"opponent_name": "Mariia Bergen"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:56.677116+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 16.666666666666664,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 6
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 10.0,
"utr_ranking": 920,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 61,
"utr_v4_losses": 9,
"utr_v4_wr": 87.14285714285714,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 9.48,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 10.75,
"opponent_name": "Mara Gae"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 10.0,
"opponent_name": "Andreea Amalia Rosca"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 9.0,
"opponent_name": "Andreea Diana Soare"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 9.0,
"opponent_name": "Gwendolyn Fedel"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 8.79,
"opponent_name": "Stefana Lazar"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:01.553731+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 5
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 8.0,
"ranking": 4999,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
},
"p2": {
"score": 10.0,
"ranking": 920,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.0,
"utr_p2": 0.23529411764705882,
"utr_diff": -2.0,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.0,
"momentum_p2": 32.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
"match_load_p1": 6,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -2.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -22.22222222222222,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 6,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0,
"combined_confidence": 0.3,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 14.403815250057475,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.60817089949326,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -1.5,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}