Natalia Pietras-Surmacz vs Julia Terziyska
UTR Belgrade W01 | Clay |
19 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Julia Terziyska
Natalia …: 23,4% Julia …: 76,6%
¿Por qué Julia Terziyska?
UTR 8,00 vs 10,00 (-2,00) — Ventaja clara
Natalia …
W20-L33
38% WR
vs UTR 8,9
L4
Julia …
W61-L9
87% WR
vs UTR 9,5
L1
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Natalia … Julia … Prob Impl. P1
Gamdom 9,00 11,1%
IA Fair Odds 4,28 1,30 23,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Natalia Pietras-Surmacz
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 8,00 General
UTR Ranking #4999
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 17% (6p)
WR Clay 0/0 = 0,0%
Julia Terziyska
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 10,00 General
UTR Ranking #920
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (5p)
WR Clay 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Natalia Pietras-Surmacz
Record 2025 20W - 33L (38%)
Racha 4L
UTR Oponentes 8,9
Últimos 5:
L L L L W
Julia Terziyska
Record 2025 61W - 9L (87%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 9,5
Últimos 5:
L W W W W
Análisis Momentum
Julia Terziyska ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 9,5 vs 8,9).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 32,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -1,5000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 8,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 30,0000
match_load_p1 6,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 6,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 14,4038
serve_consistency_p2 9,6082
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -2,0000
utr_p1 0,0000
utr_p2 0,2353
utr_advantage -22,2222
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23431
API ID 15380419
Gamdom ID 605401
Torneo UTR Belgrade W01
Superficie Clay
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23431,
    "api_id": 15380419,
    "gamdom_id": 605401,
    "player1": "Natalia Pietras-Surmacz",
    "player2": "Julia Terziyska",
    "tournament": "UTR Belgrade W01",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-19T08:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 9.0,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 11.76,
      "p2": 1.09
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2335,
    "prob_p2": 0.7665,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7665,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 8.0,
      "utr_ranking": 4999,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 20,
      "utr_v4_losses": 33,
      "utr_v4_wr": 37.735849056603776,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 4,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 8.87,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.33,
          "opponent_name": "Melissa Boyden"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Julia Terziyska"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 8.0,
          "opponent_name": "Milica Stosovic"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Aleksandra Djokic"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.25,
          "opponent_name": "Mariia Bergen"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:56.677116+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 16.666666666666664,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 10.0,
      "utr_ranking": 920,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 61,
      "utr_v4_losses": 9,
      "utr_v4_wr": 87.14285714285714,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 9.48,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.75,
          "opponent_name": "Mara Gae"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Andreea Amalia Rosca"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Andreea Diana Soare"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Gwendolyn Fedel"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 8.79,
          "opponent_name": "Stefana Lazar"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:01.553731+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 8.0,
      "ranking": 4999,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 10.0,
      "ranking": 920,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.0,
    "utr_p2": 0.23529411764705882,
    "utr_diff": -2.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 32.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 6,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -22.22222222222222,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 6,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 14.403815250057475,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.60817089949326,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -1.5,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}