Mackenzie McDonald vs Alex de Minaur
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 06:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex de Minaur
Mackenzie …: 9,4% Alex …: 90,6%
¿Por qué Alex de Minaur?
UTR 14,76 vs 15,89 (-1,16) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mackenzie … Alex … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 9,00 1,07 11,1%
Gamdom 13,00 1,05 7,7%
IA Fair Odds 10,60 1,10 9,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Mackenzie …: -1,2% Alex …: +1,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mackenzie McDonald
Ranking #113
UTR Rating 14,76 Pro
UTR Ranking #110
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/41 = 53,7%
Alex de Minaur
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 39/55 = 70,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -107,0000
rank_ratio 0,0531
log_rank_ratio -2,9356
rank_tier_advantage -4,0000
points_diff -3534,0000
best_rank_diff -31,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -17,2506
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -16,1582
surface_matches_ratio 0,7455
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,6585
surface_wr_p2 70,9091
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 69,4915
p1_surface_matches 41,0000
p2_surface_matches 55,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0732
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,3969
first_serve_won_diff -3,8509
second_serve_won_diff -6,9700
bp_saved_diff -5,5495
bp_converted_diff 1,9251
aces_per_match_diff 0,8098
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -30,2040
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 9,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6410
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8100
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4286
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5882
serve_consistency_p1 7,5980
serve_consistency_p2 8,4865
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 50,6412
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1436
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1021
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,1600
utr_p1 0,8012
utr_p2 0,9376
utr_advantage -7,5374
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23552
API ID 15384174
Gamdom ID 607900
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23552,
    "api_id": 15384174,
    "gamdom_id": 607900,
    "player1": "Mackenzie McDonald",
    "player2": "Alex de Minaur",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T02:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 9.0,
      "p2": 1.07
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 13.0,
      "p2": 1.05
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 10.48,
      "p2": 1.05
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.0943,
    "prob_p2": 0.9057,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9057,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 113,
      "utr_singles": 14.76,
      "utr_ranking": 110,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 15.89,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
      "wr_surface_wins": 39,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 14.76,
      "ranking": 110,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.89,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8011764705882354,
    "utr_p2": 0.9376470588235295,
    "utr_diff": -1.1600000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 0.05309734513274336,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": -3534,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -5.549490022172947,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.65853658536586,
    "surface_wr_p2": 70.9090909090909,
    "utr_advantage": -7.537361923326837,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -31,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.9356283494842854,
    "rank_advantage": -107,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.42857142857142855,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5882352941176471,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -17.250554323725048,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.9251441241685114,
    "p1_surface_matches": 41,
    "p2_surface_matches": 55,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.3969356984478907,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6410256410256411,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.81,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.8097560975609754,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.8509090909090986,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.07317073170731707,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.598036208467912,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.486454127607862,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 50.641216317045966,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.49152542372882,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.969977827051004,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7454545454545455,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -30.204000000000008,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 9,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14358536585365855,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10209090909090912,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.15819209039548,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}