Mackenzie McDonald vs Alex de Minaur
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 06:45
19 Ene 2026, 06:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex de Minaur
Mackenzie …: 9,4%
Alex …: 90,6%
¿Por qué Alex de Minaur?
UTR 14,76 vs 15,89
(-1,16)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Mackenzie … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 9,00 | 1,07 | 11,1% |
| Gamdom | 13,00 | 1,05 | 7,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 10,60 | 1,10 | 9,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Mackenzie …: -1,2%
Alex …: +1,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mackenzie McDonald
Ranking
#113
UTR Rating
14,76 Pro
UTR Ranking
#110
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/41 = 53,7%
Alex de Minaur
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
39/55 = 70,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -107,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0531 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,9356 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -4,0000 | |
| points_diff | -3534,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -31,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -17,2506 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -16,1582 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7455 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 53,6585 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 70,9091 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 69,4915 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0732 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,3969 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,8509 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -6,9700 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -5,5495 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 1,9251 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,8098 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -30,2040 | |
| current_streak_diff | -3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 9,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6410 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8100 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4286 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5882 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,5980 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,4865 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 50,6412 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1436 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1021 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,1600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8012 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9376 | |
| utr_advantage | -7,5374 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23552
API ID
15384174
Gamdom ID
607900
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23552,
"api_id": 15384174,
"gamdom_id": 607900,
"player1": "Mackenzie McDonald",
"player2": "Alex de Minaur",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T02:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 9.0,
"p2": 1.07
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 13.0,
"p2": 1.05
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 10.48,
"p2": 1.05
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.0943,
"prob_p2": 0.9057,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.9057,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 113,
"utr_singles": 14.76,
"utr_ranking": 110,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 15.89,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
"wr_surface_wins": 39,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
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}
},
"utr": {
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},
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"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
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}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": -1.1600000000000001,
"rank_ratio": 0.05309734513274336,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 52.0,
"momentum_p2": 72.0,
"points_diff": -3534,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -5.549490022172947,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -20.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 53.65853658536586,
"surface_wr_p2": 70.9090909090909,
"utr_advantage": -7.537361923326837,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -31,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.9356283494842854,
"rank_advantage": -107,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.42857142857142855,
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"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -17.250554323725048,
"bp_converted_diff": 1.9251441241685114,
"p1_surface_matches": 41,
"p2_surface_matches": 55,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.3969356984478907,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6410256410256411,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.81,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.8097560975609754,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -3,
"rank_tier_advantage": -4,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.8509090909090986,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.07317073170731707,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.598036208467912,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.486454127607862,
"surface_rank_synergy": 50.641216317045966,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.49152542372882,
"second_serve_won_diff": -6.969977827051004,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7454545454545455,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -30.204000000000008,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 9,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14358536585365855,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10209090909090912,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.15819209039548,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}