Carlos Alcaraz vs Yannick Hanfmann
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 07:10
21 Ene 2026, 07:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos …: 90,8%
Yannick …: 9,2%
¿Por qué Carlos Alcaraz?
UTR 16,32 vs 15,26
(+1,06)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Carlos … | Yannick … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,02 | 19,00 | 98,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,01 | 24,00 | 99,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,10 | 10,85 | 90,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Carlos …: -4,1%
Yannick …: +4,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
37/43 = 86,0%
Yannick Hanfmann
Ranking
#102
UTR Rating
15,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#55
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
9/17 = 52,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 100,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 101,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 4,6151 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 4,0000 | |
| points_diff | 11439,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 44,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 33,1053 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 23,9683 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,5294 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 4,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 86,0465 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 52,9412 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,9787 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 52,3810 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 17,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7209 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,5667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 6,9939 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 9,5157 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 8,0187 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,6254 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 1,8360 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,0848 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 29,3650 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,4203 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7458 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,8088 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,7658 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 152,7851 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2605 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1294 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 132,4213 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 1,0600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8541 | |
| utr_advantage | 6,7131 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23649
API ID
15345285
Gamdom ID
589698
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23649,
"api_id": 15345285,
"gamdom_id": 589698,
"player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
"player2": "Yannick Hanfmann",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-21T03:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.02,
"p2": 19.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.01,
"p2": 24.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.01,
"p2": 19.61
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.9078,
"prob_p2": 0.0922,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.9078,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 16.32,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
"wr_surface_wins": 37,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 102,
"utr_singles": 15.26,
"utr_ranking": 55,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 52.94117647058824,
"wr_surface_wins": 9,
"wr_surface_total": 17,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 55,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8541176470588235,
"utr_diff": 1.0600000000000005,
"rank_ratio": 101.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": 11439,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.6254445964432307,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 20.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 86.04651162790698,
"surface_wr_p2": 52.94117647058824,
"utr_advantage": 6.71310956301457,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 44,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 4.61512051684126,
"rank_advantage": 100,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 33.10533515731874,
"bp_converted_diff": 1.8359781121751055,
"p1_surface_matches": 43,
"p2_surface_matches": 17,
"serve_quality_diff": 6.993857729138185,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.4203389830508475,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7457627118644068,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.08481532147742765,
"combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 4,
"first_serve_won_diff": 9.515731874145018,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7209302325581395,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.8088195906481848,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.765784763323679,
"surface_rank_synergy": 152.785111501448,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.97872340425532,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.38095238095239,
"second_serve_won_diff": 8.018741450068404,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.5294117647058822,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 29.364999999999995,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 132.42134062927497,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2604651162790699,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.12941176470588234,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 23.968253968253965,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 4
},
"feature_importance": {}
}