Carlos Alcaraz vs Yannick Hanfmann
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 07:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos …: 90,8% Yannick …: 9,2%
¿Por qué Carlos Alcaraz?
UTR 16,32 vs 15,26 (+1,06) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Carlos … Yannick … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,02 19,00 98,0%
Gamdom 1,01 24,00 99,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,10 10,85 90,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Carlos …: -4,1% Yannick …: +4,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 37/43 = 86,0%
Yannick Hanfmann
Ranking #102
UTR Rating 15,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #55
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 9/17 = 52,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 100,0000
rank_ratio 101,0000
log_rank_ratio 4,6151
rank_tier_advantage 4,0000
points_diff 11439,0000
best_rank_diff 44,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 33,1053
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 23,9683
surface_matches_ratio 2,5294
surface_tournaments_won_diff 4,0000
surface_wr_p1 86,0465
surface_wr_p2 52,9412
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,9787
surface_wr_p2_stable 52,3810
p1_surface_matches 43,0000
p2_surface_matches 17,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7209
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,5667
combined_confidence 0,7833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 6,9939
first_serve_won_diff 9,5157
second_serve_won_diff 8,0187
bp_saved_diff -0,6254
bp_converted_diff 1,8360
aces_per_match_diff -0,0848
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 29,3650
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,4203
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7458
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 3,8088
serve_consistency_p2 6,7658
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 152,7851
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2605
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1294
elite_surface_amplifier 132,4213
UTR
utr_diff 1,0600
utr_p1 0,9788
utr_p2 0,8541
utr_advantage 6,7131
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23649
API ID 15345285
Gamdom ID 589698
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23649,
    "api_id": 15345285,
    "gamdom_id": 589698,
    "player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
    "player2": "Yannick Hanfmann",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-21T03:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.02,
      "p2": 19.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.01,
      "p2": 24.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.01,
      "p2": 19.61
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.9078,
    "prob_p2": 0.0922,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.9078,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 16.32,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
      "wr_surface_wins": 37,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 102,
      "utr_singles": 15.26,
      "utr_ranking": 55,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 52.94117647058824,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 16.32,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.26,
      "ranking": 55,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9788235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.8541176470588235,
    "utr_diff": 1.0600000000000005,
    "rank_ratio": 101.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 11439,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.6254445964432307,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 86.04651162790698,
    "surface_wr_p2": 52.94117647058824,
    "utr_advantage": 6.71310956301457,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 44,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 4.61512051684126,
    "rank_advantage": 100,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 33.10533515731874,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.8359781121751055,
    "p1_surface_matches": 43,
    "p2_surface_matches": 17,
    "serve_quality_diff": 6.993857729138185,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.4203389830508475,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7457627118644068,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.08481532147742765,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 9.515731874145018,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7209302325581395,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.8088195906481848,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.765784763323679,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 152.785111501448,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.97872340425532,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.38095238095239,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 8.018741450068404,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.5294117647058822,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 29.364999999999995,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 132.42134062927497,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2604651162790699,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.12941176470588234,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 23.968253968253965,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 4
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}