Emilio Nava vs Cameron Norrie
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 10:45
21 Ene 2026, 10:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Cameron Norrie
Emilio …: 46,4%
Cameron …: 53,6%
¿Por qué Cameron Norrie?
UTR 14,99 vs 15,38
(-0,39)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Emilio … | Cameron … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,40 | 33,3% |
| Gamdom | 2,95 | 1,45 | 33,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,15 | 1,87 | 46,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Emilio …: +14,6%
Cameron …: -14,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Emilio Nava
Ranking
#89
UTR Rating
14,99 Pro
UTR Ranking
#92
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
8/15 = 53,3%
Cameron Norrie
Ranking
#27
UTR Rating
15,38 Pro
UTR Ranking
#36
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
19/37 = 51,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -60,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,3182 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,1451 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -861,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -80,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 1,9820 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 1,0591 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,4054 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 51,3514 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 52,6316 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 51,2195 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 15,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0667 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 6,3070 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,7135 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -6,7243 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,8297 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,0865 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 3,9838 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 6,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 4,8680 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6585 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0068 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7143 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4348 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,0941 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,2388 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -2,2696 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0933 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0465 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,3900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8224 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8682 | |
| utr_advantage | -2,5683 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23650
API ID
15345289
Gamdom ID
589706
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23650,
"api_id": 15345289,
"gamdom_id": 589706,
"player1": "Emilio Nava",
"player2": "Cameron Norrie",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-21T06:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.95,
"p2": 1.45
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.86,
"p2": 1.41
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4642,
"prob_p2": 0.5358,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5358,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 89,
"utr_singles": 14.99,
"utr_ranking": 92,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 15,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 27,
"utr_singles": 15.38,
"utr_ranking": 36,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 51.35135135135135,
"wr_surface_wins": 19,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 92,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 36,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8682352941176471,
"utr_diff": -0.39000000000000057,
"rank_ratio": 0.3181818181818182,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 68.0,
"momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
"points_diff": -861,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.8297297297297206,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 5.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.5,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 53.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2": 51.35135135135135,
"utr_advantage": -2.5683240039512714,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -80,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.1451323043030026,
"rank_advantage": -60,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.43478260869565216,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 1.9819819819819884,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.0864864864864856,
"p1_surface_matches": 15,
"p2_surface_matches": 37,
"serve_quality_diff": 6.307027027027019,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6585365853658537,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0068493150684932,
"aces_per_match_diff": 3.9837837837837835,
"combined_confidence": 0.75,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.7135135135135187,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.06666666666666667,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.094140711991587,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.23878658839059,
"surface_rank_synergy": -2.2696315941140663,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 52.63157894736842,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.21951219512195,
"second_serve_won_diff": -6.724324324324321,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.40540540540540543,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 4.867999999999995,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09333333333333338,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.04648648648648657,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.0590500641848504,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}