Aryna Sabalenka vs Zhuoxuan Bai
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 95,8% Zhuoxuan …: 4,3%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 11,00 (+1,97) — Ligera ventaja
Aryna …
Sin datos
Zhuoxuan …
W3-L4
43% WR
vs UTR 11,1
L1
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aryna … Zhuoxuan … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,01 26,00 99,0%
Gamdom 1,01 26,00 99,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,04 23,53 95,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Aryna …: -0,5% Zhuoxuan …: +0,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 36/42 = 85,7%
Zhuoxuan Bai
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 11,00 Pro
UTR Ranking #497
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 75% (8p)
WR Hard 2/3 = 66,7%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Aryna Sabalenka
Sin datos UTR v4
Zhuoxuan Bai
Record 2025 3W - 4L (43%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 11,1
Últimos 5:
L W W L L
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 499,0000
rank_ratio 500,0000
log_rank_ratio 6,2146
rank_tier_advantage 5,0000
points_diff 10990,0000
best_rank_diff 499,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 19,0476
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 12,5954
surface_matches_ratio 14,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 3,0000
surface_wr_p1 85,7143
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,6087
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8095
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 3,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7143
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,3400
combined_confidence 0,6700
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 11,1681
first_serve_won_diff 4,9476
second_serve_won_diff 9,4571
bp_saved_diff 11,2119
bp_converted_diff -16,9690
aces_per_match_diff 2,9286
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1536
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 3,0612
serve_consistency_p2 8,4601
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 118,3735
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1419
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,6657
elite_surface_amplifier 95,2381
UTR
utr_diff 1,9700
utr_p1 0,5847
utr_p2 0,3529
utr_advantage 16,4372
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23656
API ID 15345519
Gamdom ID 589771
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23656,
    "api_id": 15345519,
    "gamdom_id": 589771,
    "player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
    "player2": "Zhuoxuan Bai",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-21T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.01,
      "p2": 26.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.01,
      "p2": 26.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.01,
      "p2": 23.23
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.9575,
    "prob_p2": 0.0425,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.9575,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 12.97,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 11.0,
      "utr_ranking": 497,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 3,
      "utr_v4_losses": 4,
      "utr_v4_wr": 42.857142857142854,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.09,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.8,
          "opponent_name": "Dominika Salkova"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.75,
          "opponent_name": "Hanyu Guo"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.3,
          "opponent_name": "Ann Li"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Jiaqi Wang"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.98,
          "opponent_name": "Priska Madelyn Nugroho"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:59:09.074347+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 75.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 8
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.97,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.0,
      "ranking": 497,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5847058823529413,
    "utr_p2": 0.35294117647058826,
    "utr_diff": 1.9700000000000006,
    "rank_ratio": 500.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 10990,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 11.211904761904762,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
    "utr_advantage": 16.437213183145605,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 499,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 6.214608098422191,
    "rank_advantage": 499,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 19.04761904761905,
    "bp_converted_diff": -16.96904761904763,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 3,
    "serve_quality_diff": 11.168095238095248,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.9285714285714284,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6699999999999999,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 5,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.947619047619064,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.0611654997324242,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.460106156627575,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 118.37348758899414,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.809523809523796,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 9.457142857142863,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 14.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 95.23809523809526,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.1418571428571429,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.6656666666666665,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.595445134575574,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}