Aryna Sabalenka vs Zhuoxuan Bai
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 04:30
21 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 95,8%
Zhuoxuan …: 4,3%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 11,00
(+1,97)
— Ligera ventaja
Aryna …
Sin datos
Zhuoxuan …
W3-L4
43% WR
vs UTR 11,1
L1
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aryna … | Zhuoxuan … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,01 | 26,00 | 99,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,01 | 26,00 | 99,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,04 | 23,53 | 95,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aryna …: -0,5%
Zhuoxuan …: +0,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
36/42 = 85,7%
Zhuoxuan Bai
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
11,00 Pro
UTR Ranking
#497
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
75% (8p)
WR Hard
2/3 = 66,7%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Aryna Sabalenka
Sin datos UTR v4
Zhuoxuan Bai
Record 2025
3W - 4L (43%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
11,1
Últimos 5:
L
W
W
L
L
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 499,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 500,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 6,2146 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 5,0000 | |
| points_diff | 10990,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 499,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 19,0476 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 12,5954 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 14,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 85,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,6087 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,8095 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 3,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7143 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3400 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6700 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 11,1681 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,9476 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 9,4571 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 11,2119 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -16,9690 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,9286 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1536 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,0612 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,4601 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 118,3735 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1419 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,6657 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 95,2381 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 1,9700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5847 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,3529 | |
| utr_advantage | 16,4372 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23656
API ID
15345519
Gamdom ID
589771
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23656,
"api_id": 15345519,
"gamdom_id": 589771,
"player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
"player2": "Zhuoxuan Bai",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-21T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.01,
"p2": 26.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.01,
"p2": 26.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.01,
"p2": 23.23
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.9575,
"prob_p2": 0.0425,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.9575,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 12.97,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
"wr_surface_wins": 36,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 11.0,
"utr_ranking": 497,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 3,
"utr_v4_losses": 4,
"utr_v4_wr": 42.857142857142854,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.09,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 11.8,
"opponent_name": "Dominika Salkova"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.75,
"opponent_name": "Hanyu Guo"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.3,
"opponent_name": "Ann Li"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Jiaqi Wang"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 10.98,
"opponent_name": "Priska Madelyn Nugroho"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:59:09.074347+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
"wr_surface_wins": 2,
"wr_surface_total": 3,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 75.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 8
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.97,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.0,
"ranking": 497,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.35294117647058826,
"utr_diff": 1.9700000000000006,
"rank_ratio": 500.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 10990,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 11.211904761904762,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 2.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
"surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
"surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
"utr_advantage": 16.437213183145605,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 499,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 6.214608098422191,
"rank_advantage": 499,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 19.04761904761905,
"bp_converted_diff": -16.96904761904763,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 3,
"serve_quality_diff": 11.168095238095248,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.9285714285714284,
"combined_confidence": 0.6699999999999999,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 5,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.947619047619064,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.0611654997324242,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.460106156627575,
"surface_rank_synergy": 118.37348758899414,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.809523809523796,
"second_serve_won_diff": 9.457142857142863,
"surface_matches_ratio": 14.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 95.23809523809526,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.1418571428571429,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.6656666666666665,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.595445134575574,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3
},
"feature_importance": {}
}