Daniil Medvedev vs Quentin Halys
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 05:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 86,2% Quentin …: 13,8%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
UTR 15,81 vs 14,75 (+1,06) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daniil … Quentin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,20 4,50 83,3%
Gamdom 1,12 7,40 89,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,16 7,25 86,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Daniil …: +7,3% Quentin …: -7,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #8
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 30/46 = 65,2%
Quentin Halys
Ranking #83
UTR Rating 14,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #120
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 13/33 = 39,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 71,0000
rank_ratio 6,9167
log_rank_ratio 1,9339
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 2185,0000
best_rank_diff 45,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 25,8235
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 23,4595
surface_matches_ratio 1,3939
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,2174
surface_wr_p2 39,3939
surface_wr_p1_stable 64,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 40,5405
p1_surface_matches 46,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3043
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,1397
first_serve_won_diff 2,9260
second_serve_won_diff 3,3798
bp_saved_diff 1,2715
bp_converted_diff 0,7472
aces_per_match_diff -3,3083
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 8,9300
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 6,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8483
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9620
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5238
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6875
serve_consistency_p1 7,7845
serve_consistency_p2 6,9994
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 49,9409
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0812
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0351
elite_surface_amplifier 51,6469
UTR
utr_diff 1,0600
utr_p1 0,9188
utr_p2 0,7941
utr_advantage 6,9372
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23767
API ID 15345253
Gamdom ID 589733
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23767,
    "api_id": 15345253,
    "gamdom_id": 589733,
    "player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
    "player2": "Quentin Halys",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-21T01:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.12,
      "p2": 7.4
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.11,
      "p2": 6.61
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8621,
    "prob_p2": 0.1379,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8621,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 15.81,
      "utr_ranking": 8,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
      "wr_surface_wins": 30,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 83,
      "utr_singles": 14.75,
      "utr_ranking": 120,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 39.39393939393939,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 8,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
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      "ranking": 120,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.7941176470588235,
    "utr_diff": 1.0600000000000005,
    "rank_ratio": 6.916666666666667,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": 2185,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.2715415019762872,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 6,
    "momentum_diff": 29.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
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    "utr_advantage": 6.937172774869113,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 45,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.9339339580085977,
    "rank_advantage": 71,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 25.823451910408437,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.7471673254281868,
    "p1_surface_matches": 46,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.139670619235844,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9619565217391305,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.308300395256918,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.9259552042160806,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.784514355772046,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.999415344667177,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 49.940850562540874,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.54054054054054,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.379841897233206,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.393939393939394,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 8.929999999999978,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 51.646903820816874,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08117391304347832,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.035060606060606125,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 23.45945945945946,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}