Ann Li vs Magda Linette
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 11:40
21 Ene 2026, 11:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ann Li
Ann …: 67,4%
Magda …: 32,6%
¿Por qué Ann Li?
UTR 12,31 vs 12,11
(+0,20)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Ann … | Magda … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,80 | 2,00 | 55,6% |
| Gamdom | 1,74 | 2,19 | 57,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,48 | 3,07 | 67,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Ann …: +14,8%
Magda …: -14,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ann Li
Ranking
#38
UTR Rating
12,31 Pro
UTR Ranking
#40
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
19/33 = 57,6%
Magda Linette
Ranking
#50
UTR Rating
12,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#75
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
15/31 = 48,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 12,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,3158 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,2744 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 159,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -14,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 9,1887 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,1853 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0645 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 57,5758 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 48,3871 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 56,7568 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 48,5714 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1515 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 2,9307 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,2097 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 5,0355 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,7355 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,8581 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,4076 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -12,2950 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8624 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8451 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,6915 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,7841 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 2,5217 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0638 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0041 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5071 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4835 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,6380 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23768
API ID
15345526
Gamdom ID
589783
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23768,
"api_id": 15345526,
"gamdom_id": 589783,
"player1": "Ann Li",
"player2": "Magda Linette",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-21T07:40:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
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"p2": 2.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.74,
"p2": 2.19
},
"tnnslive": {
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"p2": 2.11
}
},
"prediction": {
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"prob_p2": 0.326,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.674,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"utr_singles": 12.31,
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"utr_division": "Pro",
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"wr_surface": 57.57575757575758,
"wr_surface_wins": 19,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
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"utr_ranking": 75,
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"points_diff": 159,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.735483870967741,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 3,
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"momentum_diff": -7.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
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"log_rank_ratio": 0.27443684570176036,
"rank_advantage": 12,
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"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
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"bp_converted_diff": 0.8580645161290334,
"p1_surface_matches": 33,
"p2_surface_matches": 31,
"serve_quality_diff": 2.930733137829918,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8623853211009175,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8450704225352113,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.4076246334310847,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.2096774193548328,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.15151515151515152,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.691522445660237,
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"surface_rank_synergy": 2.5217070866046405,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 56.75675675675676,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 48.57142857142857,
"second_serve_won_diff": 5.035483870967745,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.064516129032258,
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"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
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"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
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"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.185328185328189,
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"feature_importance": {}
}