Magdalena Frech vs Jasmine Paolini
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 13:25
21 Ene 2026, 13:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jasmine Paolini
Magdalena …: 32,7%
Jasmine …: 67,3%
¿Por qué Jasmine Paolini?
UTR 12,16 vs 12,59
(-0,43)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Magdalena … | Jasmine … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,75 | 1,28 | 26,7% |
| Gamdom | 4,10 | 1,27 | 24,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,06 | 1,49 | 32,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Magdalena …: +7,3%
Jasmine …: -7,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Magdalena Frech
Ranking
#57
UTR Rating
12,16 Pro
UTR Ranking
#62
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
8/23 = 34,8%
Jasmine Paolini
Ranking
#8
UTR Rating
12,59 Pro
UTR Ranking
#17
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
27/41 = 65,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -49,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1404 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,9636 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -3,0000 | |
| points_diff | -3174,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -18,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -31,0710 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -24,2099 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5610 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 34,7826 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 65,8537 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 37,0370 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 64,4444 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,3043 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -0,7883 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,7171 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,6732 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -8,6122 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -4,6780 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,6861 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 8,6000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7049 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7569 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,1798 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 13,7601 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 61,0114 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1032 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1095 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4894 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5400 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,4747 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23771
API ID
15345517
Gamdom ID
589778
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23771,
"api_id": 15345517,
"gamdom_id": 589778,
"player1": "Magdalena Frech",
"player2": "Jasmine Paolini",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-21T09:25:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.75,
"p2": 1.28
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 4.1,
"p2": 1.27
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.85,
"p2": 1.26
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.327,
"prob_p2": 0.673,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.673,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 57,
"utr_singles": 12.16,
"utr_ranking": 62,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 34.78260869565217,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 8,
"utr_singles": 12.59,
"utr_ranking": 17,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.85365853658537,
"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 62,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 17,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.54,
"utr_diff": -0.4299999999999997,
"rank_ratio": 0.14035087719298245,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 70.0,
"points_diff": -3174,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -8.612195121951224,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 7.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 34.78260869565217,
"surface_wr_p2": 65.85365853658537,
"utr_advantage": -3.4747474747474723,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -18,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.9636097261547143,
"rank_advantage": -49,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": -31.0710498409332,
"bp_converted_diff": -4.678048780487806,
"p1_surface_matches": 23,
"p2_surface_matches": 41,
"serve_quality_diff": -0.7882714740190835,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7049180327868853,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7569444444444444,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.6861081654294803,
"combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -3,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.717073170731709,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.30434782608695654,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.179762416848518,
"serve_consistency_p2": 13.76010834162685,
"surface_rank_synergy": 61.01141566949432,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 37.03703703703704,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.44444444444444,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.673170731707316,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5609756097560976,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 8.600000000000009,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.10317391304347823,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10953658536585364,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -24.209876543209873,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}