Magdalena Frech vs Jasmine Paolini
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 13:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jasmine Paolini
Magdalena …: 32,7% Jasmine …: 67,3%
¿Por qué Jasmine Paolini?
UTR 12,16 vs 12,59 (-0,43) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Magdalena … Jasmine … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,75 1,28 26,7%
Gamdom 4,10 1,27 24,4%
IA Fair Odds 3,06 1,49 32,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Magdalena …: +7,3% Jasmine …: -7,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Magdalena Frech
Ranking #57
UTR Rating 12,16 Pro
UTR Ranking #62
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 8/23 = 34,8%
Jasmine Paolini
Ranking #8
UTR Rating 12,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #17
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 27/41 = 65,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -49,0000
rank_ratio 0,1404
log_rank_ratio -1,9636
rank_tier_advantage -3,0000
points_diff -3174,0000
best_rank_diff -18,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -31,0710
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -24,2099
surface_matches_ratio 0,5610
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 34,7826
surface_wr_p2 65,8537
surface_wr_p1_stable 37,0370
surface_wr_p2_stable 64,4444
p1_surface_matches 23,0000
p2_surface_matches 41,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3043
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,7883
first_serve_won_diff -2,7171
second_serve_won_diff -2,6732
bp_saved_diff -8,6122
bp_converted_diff -4,6780
aces_per_match_diff 0,6861
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 78,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 8,6000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7049
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7569
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7000
serve_consistency_p1 7,1798
serve_consistency_p2 13,7601
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 61,0114
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1032
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1095
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4300
utr_p1 0,4894
utr_p2 0,5400
utr_advantage -3,4747
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23771
API ID 15345517
Gamdom ID 589778
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23771,
    "api_id": 15345517,
    "gamdom_id": 589778,
    "player1": "Magdalena Frech",
    "player2": "Jasmine Paolini",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-21T09:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.75,
      "p2": 1.28
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.1,
      "p2": 1.27
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.85,
      "p2": 1.26
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.327,
    "prob_p2": 0.673,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.673,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 57,
      "utr_singles": 12.16,
      "utr_ranking": 62,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 34.78260869565217,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 8,
      "utr_singles": 12.59,
      "utr_ranking": 17,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.85365853658537,
      "wr_surface_wins": 27,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.16,
      "ranking": 62,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.59,
      "ranking": 17,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.54,
    "utr_diff": -0.4299999999999997,
    "rank_ratio": 0.14035087719298245,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": -3174,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -8.612195121951224,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 7.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 34.78260869565217,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.85365853658537,
    "utr_advantage": -3.4747474747474723,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -18,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.9636097261547143,
    "rank_advantage": -49,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -31.0710498409332,
    "bp_converted_diff": -4.678048780487806,
    "p1_surface_matches": 23,
    "p2_surface_matches": 41,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.7882714740190835,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7049180327868853,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7569444444444444,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.6861081654294803,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.717073170731709,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.30434782608695654,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.179762416848518,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 13.76010834162685,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 61.01141566949432,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 37.03703703703704,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.44444444444444,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.673170731707316,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5609756097560976,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 8.600000000000009,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.10317391304347823,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10953658536585364,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -24.209876543209873,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}