Reilly Opelka vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 06:40
21 Ene 2026, 06:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Reilly …: 35,9%
Alejandro …: 64,1%
¿Por qué Alejandro Davidovich Fokina?
UTR 15,11 vs 15,62
(-0,51)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Reilly … | Alejandro … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,20 | 1,36 | 31,3% |
| Gamdom | 3,00 | 1,43 | 33,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,79 | 1,56 | 35,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Reilly …: +6,1%
Alejandro …: -6,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Reilly Opelka
Ranking
#63
UTR Rating
15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
21/35 = 60,0%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Ranking
#14
UTR Rating
15,62 Pro
UTR Ranking
#16
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
29/46 = 63,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -49,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2222 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,5041 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1762,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -3,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -3,0435 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -3,0256 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7609 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 63,0435 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,9744 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 62,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 46,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 29,3609 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 10,0056 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,4255 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 10,3770 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -10,7031 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 11,9652 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -6,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -9,1540 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0341 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9104 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6538 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,4307 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 3,0519 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 4,5776 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1490 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0814 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,5100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8365 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8965 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,3192 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23779
API ID
15345299
Gamdom ID
589694
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
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"match": {
"id": 23779,
"api_id": 15345299,
"gamdom_id": 589694,
"player1": "Reilly Opelka",
"player2": "Alejandro Davidovich Fokina",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-21T02:40:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.2,
"p2": 1.3599999999999999
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.43
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.91,
"p2": 1.4
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3588,
"prob_p2": 0.6412,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6412,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"utr_singles": 15.11,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
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"utr_singles": 15.62,
"utr_ranking": 16,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 63.04347826086957,
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"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
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"ranking": 16,
"division": "Pro",
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},
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"momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
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"points_diff": -1762,
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"bp_saved_diff": 10.37701863354036,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": -5.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
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"utr_advantage": -3.319232020826553,
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"best_rank_diff": -3,
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"rank_advantage": -49,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
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"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
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"surface_wr_diff": -3.04347826086957,
"bp_converted_diff": -10.703105590062112,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 46,
"serve_quality_diff": 29.360869565217392,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0340909090909092,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9104477611940298,
"aces_per_match_diff": 11.965217391304348,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 10.005590062111807,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.430749515625775,
"serve_consistency_p2": 3.051930493125401,
"surface_rank_synergy": 4.5776268597538845,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.97435897435898,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.4254658385093109,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7608695652173914,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -9.153999999999996,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14900000000000002,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08143478260869563,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.025641025641022,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
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"feature_importance": {}
}