Reilly Opelka vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 06:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Reilly …: 35,9% Alejandro …: 64,1%
¿Por qué Alejandro Davidovich Fokina?
UTR 15,11 vs 15,62 (-0,51) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Reilly … Alejandro … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,20 1,36 31,3%
Gamdom 3,00 1,43 33,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,79 1,56 35,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Reilly …: +6,1% Alejandro …: -6,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Reilly Opelka
Ranking #63
UTR Rating 15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 21/35 = 60,0%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Ranking #14
UTR Rating 15,62 Pro
UTR Ranking #16
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 29/46 = 63,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -49,0000
rank_ratio 0,2222
log_rank_ratio -1,5041
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -1762,0000
best_rank_diff -3,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -3,0435
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -3,0256
surface_matches_ratio 0,7609
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,0000
surface_wr_p2 63,0435
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,9744
surface_wr_p2_stable 62,0000
p1_surface_matches 35,0000
p2_surface_matches 46,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 29,3609
first_serve_won_diff 10,0056
second_serve_won_diff 1,4255
bp_saved_diff 10,3770
bp_converted_diff -10,7031
aces_per_match_diff 11,9652
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 62,0000
momentum_p2 68,0000
momentum_diff -6,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -9,1540
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0341
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9104
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6538
serve_consistency_p1 6,4307
serve_consistency_p2 3,0519
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 4,5776
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1490
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0814
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5100
utr_p1 0,8365
utr_p2 0,8965
utr_advantage -3,3192
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23779
API ID 15345299
Gamdom ID 589694
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23779,
    "api_id": 15345299,
    "gamdom_id": 589694,
    "player1": "Reilly Opelka",
    "player2": "Alejandro Davidovich Fokina",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-21T02:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.2,
      "p2": 1.3599999999999999
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.43
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.91,
      "p2": 1.4
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3588,
    "prob_p2": 0.6412,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6412,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 63,
      "utr_singles": 15.11,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 14,
      "utr_singles": 15.62,
      "utr_ranking": 16,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.04347826086957,
      "wr_surface_wins": 29,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.11,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.62,
      "ranking": 16,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8364705882352941,
    "utr_p2": 0.896470588235294,
    "utr_diff": -0.5099999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
    "momentum_p2": 68.0,
    "points_diff": -1762,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 10.37701863354036,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": -5.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 63.04347826086957,
    "utr_advantage": -3.319232020826553,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -3,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.5040773967762742,
    "rank_advantage": -49,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6538461538461539,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -3.04347826086957,
    "bp_converted_diff": -10.703105590062112,
    "p1_surface_matches": 35,
    "p2_surface_matches": 46,
    "serve_quality_diff": 29.360869565217392,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0340909090909092,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9104477611940298,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 11.965217391304348,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 10.005590062111807,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.430749515625775,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 3.051930493125401,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 4.5776268597538845,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.97435897435898,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.4254658385093109,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7608695652173914,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -9.153999999999996,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14900000000000002,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08143478260869563,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.025641025641022,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}