Tommy Paul vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tommy Paul
Tommy …: 72,4% Thiago …: 27,6%
¿Por qué Tommy Paul?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Tommy … Thiago … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,08 8,00 92,6%
Gamdom 1,08 9,80 92,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,38 3,63 72,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Tommy …: -15,7% Thiago …: +15,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tommy Paul
Ranking #20
UTR Rating 15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #15
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 16/23 = 69,6%
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Ranking #103
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 9/14 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 83,0000
rank_ratio 5,1500
log_rank_ratio 1,6390
rank_tier_advantage 3,0000
points_diff 1445,0000
best_rank_diff 82,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 5,2795
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 3,4815
surface_matches_ratio 1,6429
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 69,5652
surface_wr_p2 64,2857
surface_wr_p1_stable 66,6667
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,1111
p1_surface_matches 23,0000
p2_surface_matches 14,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3913
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7667
p2_confidence 0,4867
combined_confidence 0,6267
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,5701
first_serve_won_diff 2,8217
second_serve_won_diff 4,4025
bp_saved_diff -9,2658
bp_converted_diff -0,9404
aces_per_match_diff 0,9193
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 9,6390
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1093
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4167
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7500
serve_consistency_p1 8,9079
serve_consistency_p2 7,1500
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 8,6531
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1127
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2259
elite_surface_amplifier 15,8385
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8976
utr_p2 0,8976
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23780
API ID 15345301
Gamdom ID 589690
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23780,
    "api_id": 15345301,
    "gamdom_id": 589690,
    "player1": "Tommy Paul",
    "player2": "Thiago Agustin Tirante",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-21T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.08,
      "p2": 8.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.08,
      "p2": 9.8
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.08,
      "p2": 7.76
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7243,
    "prob_p2": 0.2757,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7243,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 20,
      "utr_singles": 15.63,
      "utr_ranking": 15,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 103,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 14,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.63,
      "ranking": 15,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8976470588235295,
    "utr_p2": 0.8976470588235295,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 5.15,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 1445,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -9.26583850931678,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 7.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 69.56521739130434,
    "surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 82,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.6389967146756448,
    "rank_advantage": 83,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4166666666666667,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 5.279503105590052,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.9403726708074558,
    "p1_surface_matches": 23,
    "p2_surface_matches": 14,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.570124223602477,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1093247588424437,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.9192546583850927,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6266666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.8217391304347785,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.391304347826087,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.907917478022878,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.150044272925145,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 8.653088245181959,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.111111111111114,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.402484472049686,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.6428571428571428,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 9.63900000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 15.838509316770157,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1126521739130435,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.22585714285714287,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 3.481481481481474,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}