Tommy Paul vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 04:00
21 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tommy Paul
Tommy …: 72,4%
Thiago …: 27,6%
¿Por qué Tommy Paul?
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Tommy … | Thiago … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,08 | 8,00 | 92,6% |
| Gamdom | 1,08 | 9,80 | 92,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,38 | 3,63 | 72,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Tommy …: -15,7%
Thiago …: +15,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tommy Paul
Ranking
#20
UTR Rating
15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking
#15
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
16/23 = 69,6%
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Ranking
#103
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
9/14 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 83,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 5,1500 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,6390 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1445,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 82,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 5,2795 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 3,4815 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,6429 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 69,5652 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 61,1111 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3913 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6267 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 4,5701 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,8217 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 4,4025 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -9,2658 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,9404 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,9193 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 9,6390 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1093 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4167 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7500 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,9079 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,1500 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 8,6531 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1127 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2259 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 15,8385 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8976 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8976 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23780
API ID
15345301
Gamdom ID
589690
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23780,
"api_id": 15345301,
"gamdom_id": 589690,
"player1": "Tommy Paul",
"player2": "Thiago Agustin Tirante",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-21T00:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.08,
"p2": 8.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.08,
"p2": 9.8
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.08,
"p2": 7.76
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7243,
"prob_p2": 0.2757,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7243,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 20,
"utr_singles": 15.63,
"utr_ranking": 15,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 103,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 9,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.63,
"ranking": 15,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8976470588235295,
"utr_p2": 0.8976470588235295,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 5.15,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 68.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
"points_diff": 1445,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -9.26583850931678,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 7.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 69.56521739130434,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 82,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.6389967146756448,
"rank_advantage": 83,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4166666666666667,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 5.279503105590052,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.9403726708074558,
"p1_surface_matches": 23,
"p2_surface_matches": 14,
"serve_quality_diff": 4.570124223602477,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1093247588424437,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.9192546583850927,
"combined_confidence": 0.6266666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 3,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.8217391304347785,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.391304347826087,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.907917478022878,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.150044272925145,
"surface_rank_synergy": 8.653088245181959,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 66.66666666666666,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.111111111111114,
"second_serve_won_diff": 4.402484472049686,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.6428571428571428,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 9.63900000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 15.838509316770157,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1126521739130435,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.22585714285714287,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 3.481481481481474,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}