Jessica Pegula vs McCartney Kessler
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 04:30
22 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jessica Pegula
Jessica …: 61,6%
McCartney …: 38,4%
¿Por qué Jessica Pegula?
UTR 12,75 vs 12,39
(+0,36)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jessica … | McCartney … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,33 | 3,40 | 75,2% |
| Gamdom | 1,25 | 4,40 | 80,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,62 | 2,61 | 61,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jessica …: -10,2%
McCartney …: +10,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jessica Pegula
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
34/49 = 69,4%
McCartney Kessler
Ranking
#37
UTR Rating
12,39 Pro
UTR Ranking
#29
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
27/42 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 31,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 6,1667 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,8192 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 4118,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 27,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 5,1020 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,8811 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,1667 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 69,3878 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 67,9245 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,0435 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 49,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3878 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 3,5442 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,6143 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,7857 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,6286 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 1,6143 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,7007 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 48,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 22,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 15,6950 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,2132 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7901 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3571 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,5171 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,1031 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 9,2814 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1629 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1739 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 10,2041 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5588 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5165 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,8640 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23782
API ID
15345423
Gamdom ID
589811
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
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"match": {
"id": 23782,
"api_id": 15345423,
"gamdom_id": 589811,
"player1": "Jessica Pegula",
"player2": "McCartney Kessler",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-22T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.33,
"p2": 3.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.25,
"p2": 4.4
},
"tnnslive": {
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"p2": 4.08
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6164,
"prob_p2": 0.3836,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6164,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"utr_singles": 12.75,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
"wr_surface_wins": 34,
"wr_surface_total": 49,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 37,
"utr_singles": 12.39,
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"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
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},
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"utr_diff": 0.35999999999999943,
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"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 48.00000000000001,
"points_diff": 4118,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.6285714285714263,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 21.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 69.38775510204081,
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"utr_advantage": 2.863961813842477,
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"best_rank_diff": 27,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.8191584434161694,
"rank_advantage": 31,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.35714285714285715,
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"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 3,
"surface_wr_diff": 5.102040816326522,
"bp_converted_diff": 1.614285714285721,
"p1_surface_matches": 49,
"p2_surface_matches": 42,
"serve_quality_diff": 3.544217687074827,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.213235294117647,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7901234567901234,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.7006802721088434,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.614285714285714,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.3877551020408163,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.51707643920596,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.103080130999613,
"surface_rank_synergy": 9.281420629674317,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 67.9245283018868,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.04347826086957,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.7857142857142847,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.1666666666666667,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 15.695000000000007,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 10.204081632653043,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.16287755102040813,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17385714285714293,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.881050041017225,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
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"feature_importance": {}
}