Karolina Muchova vs Alycia Parks
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 11:45
21 Ene 2026, 11:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Karolina Muchova
Karolina …: 81,2%
Alycia …: 18,8%
¿Por qué Karolina Muchova?
UTR 12,57 vs 11,84
(+0,73)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Karolina … | Alycia … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,11 | 6,50 | 90,1% |
| Gamdom | 1,09 | 8,60 | 91,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,23 | 5,33 | 81,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Karolina …: -4,2%
Alycia …: +4,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Karolina Muchova
Ranking
#19
UTR Rating
12,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#18
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
24/37 = 64,9%
Alycia Parks
Ranking
#99
UTR Rating
11,84 Pro
UTR Ranking
#157
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
21/41 = 51,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 80,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 5,2105 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,6507 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1313,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 32,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 13,6454 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 12,3035 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9024 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,8649 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 51,2195 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 63,4146 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 51,1111 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2973 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -7,2027 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1,7800 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,6531 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 8,3132 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -2,4480 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,9084 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 16,2740 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0982 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,2500 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5455 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,9608 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,1314 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 22,5241 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0686 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0922 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 27,2907 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,7300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5376 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4518 | |
| utr_advantage | 5,9812 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23783
API ID
15345527
Gamdom ID
589765
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23783,
"api_id": 15345527,
"gamdom_id": 589765,
"player1": "Karolina Muchova",
"player2": "Alycia Parks",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-21T07:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.11,
"p2": 6.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.09,
"p2": 8.6
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.09,
"p2": 7.43
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8124,
"prob_p2": 0.1876,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8124,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 19,
"utr_singles": 12.57,
"utr_ranking": 18,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 99,
"utr_singles": 11.84,
"utr_ranking": 157,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 51.21951219512195,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 18,
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"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 157,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": 0.7300000000000004,
"rank_ratio": 5.2105263157894735,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
"points_diff": 1313,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 8.313183915622943,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 9.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.86486486486487,
"surface_wr_p2": 51.21951219512195,
"utr_advantage": 5.981155264235973,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 32,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.6506808709681495,
"rank_advantage": 80,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5454545454545454,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 13.64535266974292,
"bp_converted_diff": -2.4479894528675104,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 41,
"serve_quality_diff": -7.202696110744888,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.098159509202454,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.25,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.9083717864205667,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.7800263678312547,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2972972972972973,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.960835854095158,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.131448592342885,
"surface_rank_synergy": 22.524122629558807,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.41463414634146,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.11111111111111,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.6531311799604538,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9024390243902439,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 16.273999999999987,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 27.29070533948584,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06864864864864861,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.0921951219512196,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.303523035230356,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}