Karolina Muchova vs Alycia Parks
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 11:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Karolina Muchova
Karolina …: 81,2% Alycia …: 18,8%
¿Por qué Karolina Muchova?
UTR 12,57 vs 11,84 (+0,73) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Karolina … Alycia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,11 6,50 90,1%
Gamdom 1,09 8,60 91,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,23 5,33 81,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Karolina …: -4,2% Alycia …: +4,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Karolina Muchova
Ranking #19
UTR Rating 12,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #18
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 24/37 = 64,9%
Alycia Parks
Ranking #99
UTR Rating 11,84 Pro
UTR Ranking #157
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 21/41 = 51,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 80,0000
rank_ratio 5,2105
log_rank_ratio 1,6507
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 1313,0000
best_rank_diff 32,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 13,6454
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 12,3035
surface_matches_ratio 0,9024
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,8649
surface_wr_p2 51,2195
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,4146
surface_wr_p2_stable 51,1111
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 41,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2973
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,2027
first_serve_won_diff -1,7800
second_serve_won_diff -1,6531
bp_saved_diff 8,3132
bp_converted_diff -2,4480
aces_per_match_diff -2,9084
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 16,2740
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0982
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,2500
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5455
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 6,9608
serve_consistency_p2 4,1314
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 22,5241
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0686
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0922
elite_surface_amplifier 27,2907
UTR
utr_diff 0,7300
utr_p1 0,5376
utr_p2 0,4518
utr_advantage 5,9812
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23783
API ID 15345527
Gamdom ID 589765
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23783,
    "api_id": 15345527,
    "gamdom_id": 589765,
    "player1": "Karolina Muchova",
    "player2": "Alycia Parks",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-21T07:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.11,
      "p2": 6.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.09,
      "p2": 8.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.09,
      "p2": 7.43
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8124,
    "prob_p2": 0.1876,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8124,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 19,
      "utr_singles": 12.57,
      "utr_ranking": 18,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 99,
      "utr_singles": 11.84,
      "utr_ranking": 157,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.21951219512195,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.57,
      "ranking": 18,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.84,
      "ranking": 157,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.4517647058823529,
    "utr_diff": 0.7300000000000004,
    "rank_ratio": 5.2105263157894735,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 1313,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 8.313183915622943,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 9.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.86486486486487,
    "surface_wr_p2": 51.21951219512195,
    "utr_advantage": 5.981155264235973,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 32,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.6506808709681495,
    "rank_advantage": 80,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5454545454545454,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 13.64535266974292,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.4479894528675104,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 41,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.202696110744888,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.098159509202454,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.25,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.9083717864205667,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.7800263678312547,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2972972972972973,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.960835854095158,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.131448592342885,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 22.524122629558807,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.41463414634146,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.11111111111111,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.6531311799604538,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9024390243902439,
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    "elite_surface_amplifier": 27.29070533948584,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
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    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06864864864864861,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.0921951219512196,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.303523035230356,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}