Polina Kudermetova vs Clara Tauson
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 06:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Clara Tauson
Polina …: 17,7% Clara …: 82,3%
¿Por qué Clara Tauson?
UTR 11,71 vs 12,39 (-0,68) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Polina … Clara … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,40 33,3%
Gamdom 2,95 1,45 33,9%
IA Fair Odds 5,64 1,22 17,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Polina …: -14,1% Clara …: +14,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Polina Kudermetova
Ranking #150
UTR Rating 11,71 Pro
UTR Ranking #182
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 17/35 = 48,6%
Clara Tauson
Ranking #14
UTR Rating 12,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #34
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 24/37 = 64,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -136,0000
rank_ratio 0,0933
log_rank_ratio -2,3716
rank_tier_advantage -3,0000
points_diff -2040,0000
best_rank_diff -42,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -16,2934
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -14,6967
surface_matches_ratio 0,9459
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,5714
surface_wr_p2 64,8649
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,7179
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,4146
p1_surface_matches 35,0000
p2_surface_matches 37,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0286
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -10,0119
first_serve_won_diff -7,4910
second_serve_won_diff -1,4644
bp_saved_diff -5,2445
bp_converted_diff 5,0334
aces_per_match_diff -2,9135
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 17,3690
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7468
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1304
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5263
serve_consistency_p1 10,6358
serve_consistency_p2 10,8458
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 38,6412
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1217
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0126
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,6800
utr_p1 0,4365
utr_p2 0,5165
utr_advantage -5,6432
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23784
API ID 15345521
Gamdom ID 589753
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23784,
    "api_id": 15345521,
    "gamdom_id": 589753,
    "player1": "Polina Kudermetova",
    "player2": "Clara Tauson",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-21T02:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.95,
      "p2": 1.45
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.82,
      "p2": 1.42
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1772,
    "prob_p2": 0.8228,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8228,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 150,
      "utr_singles": 11.71,
      "utr_ranking": 182,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.57142857142857,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 14,
      "utr_singles": 12.39,
      "utr_ranking": 34,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 11.71,
      "ranking": 182,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.39,
      "ranking": 34,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5164705882352942,
    "utr_diff": -0.6799999999999997,
    "rank_ratio": 0.09333333333333334,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": -2040,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -5.244478764478764,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 30.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.57142857142857,
    "surface_wr_p2": 64.86486486486487,
    "utr_advantage": -5.643153526970952,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -42,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.371577964480997,
    "rank_advantage": -136,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5263157894736842,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -16.2934362934363,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.033436293436289,
    "p1_surface_matches": 35,
    "p2_surface_matches": 37,
    "serve_quality_diff": -10.011868725868723,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7468354430379747,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1304347826086956,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.913513513513513,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.491042471042476,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.02857142857142857,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.635799441534527,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.845764807181393,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 38.641154479188465,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.717948717948715,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.41463414634146,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.4644015444015466,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9459459459459459,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 17.369000000000014,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.12171428571428572,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.012648648648648675,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -14.696685428392747,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}