Polina Kudermetova vs Clara Tauson
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 06:45
21 Ene 2026, 06:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Clara Tauson
Polina …: 17,7%
Clara …: 82,3%
¿Por qué Clara Tauson?
UTR 11,71 vs 12,39
(-0,68)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Polina … | Clara … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,40 | 33,3% |
| Gamdom | 2,95 | 1,45 | 33,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 5,64 | 1,22 | 17,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Polina …: -14,1%
Clara …: +14,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Polina Kudermetova
Ranking
#150
UTR Rating
11,71 Pro
UTR Ranking
#182
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
17/35 = 48,6%
Clara Tauson
Ranking
#14
UTR Rating
12,39 Pro
UTR Ranking
#34
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
24/37 = 64,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -136,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0933 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,3716 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -3,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2040,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -42,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -16,2934 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -14,6967 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9459 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,5714 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,8649 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,7179 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,4146 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0286 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -10,0119 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -7,4910 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,4644 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -5,2445 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,0334 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,9135 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 17,3690 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7468 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1304 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5263 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,6358 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,8458 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 38,6412 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1217 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0126 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,6800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4365 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5165 | |
| utr_advantage | -5,6432 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23784
API ID
15345521
Gamdom ID
589753
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23784,
"api_id": 15345521,
"gamdom_id": 589753,
"player1": "Polina Kudermetova",
"player2": "Clara Tauson",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-21T02:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.95,
"p2": 1.45
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.82,
"p2": 1.42
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1772,
"prob_p2": 0.8228,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8228,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 150,
"utr_singles": 11.71,
"utr_ranking": 182,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.57142857142857,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 14,
"utr_singles": 12.39,
"utr_ranking": 34,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 182,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 34,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5164705882352942,
"utr_diff": -0.6799999999999997,
"rank_ratio": 0.09333333333333334,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 40.0,
"points_diff": -2040,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -5.244478764478764,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 30.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.57142857142857,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.86486486486487,
"utr_advantage": -5.643153526970952,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -42,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.371577964480997,
"rank_advantage": -136,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5263157894736842,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": -16.2934362934363,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.033436293436289,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 37,
"serve_quality_diff": -10.011868725868723,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7468354430379747,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1304347826086956,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.913513513513513,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -3,
"first_serve_won_diff": -7.491042471042476,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.02857142857142857,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.635799441534527,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.845764807181393,
"surface_rank_synergy": 38.641154479188465,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.717948717948715,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.41463414634146,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.4644015444015466,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9459459459459459,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 17.369000000000014,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.12171428571428572,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.012648648648648675,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -14.696685428392747,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}