Arthur Gea vs Stan Wawrinka
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 09:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stan Wawrinka
Arthur …: 36,7% Stan …: 63,3%
¿Por qué Stan Wawrinka?
UTR 14,57 vs 14,64 (-0,07) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Arthur … Stan … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,20 59,9%
Gamdom 1,67 2,32 59,9%
IA Fair Odds 2,73 1,58 36,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Arthur …: -20,2% Stan …: +20,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Arthur Gea
Ranking #198
UTR Rating 14,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #170
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 5/12 = 41,7%
Stan Wawrinka
Ranking #139
UTR Rating 14,64 Pro
UTR Ranking #139
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 10/20 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -59,0000
rank_ratio 0,7020
log_rank_ratio -0,3538
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -137,0000
best_rank_diff -194,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -8,3333
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -3,5208
surface_matches_ratio 0,6000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 41,6667
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 43,7500
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 12,0000
p2_surface_matches 20,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1667
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4600
p2_confidence 0,6667
combined_confidence 0,5633
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,7222
first_serve_won_diff -5,6967
second_serve_won_diff -1,8017
bp_saved_diff 0,8233
bp_converted_diff -8,7483
aces_per_match_diff -2,1667
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 58,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 34,6650
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 2,4615
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6250
serve_consistency_p1 3,4065
serve_consistency_p2 5,4220
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,9483
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0243
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0590
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0700
utr_p1 0,7729
utr_p2 0,7812
utr_advantage -0,4793
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23788
API ID 15345251
Gamdom ID 589748
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23788,
    "api_id": 15345251,
    "gamdom_id": 589748,
    "player1": "Arthur Gea",
    "player2": "Stan Wawrinka",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-22T05:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.32
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.55,
      "p2": 2.41
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3666,
    "prob_p2": 0.6334,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6334,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 198,
      "utr_singles": 14.57,
      "utr_ranking": 170,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 139,
      "utr_singles": 14.64,
      "utr_ranking": 139,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 20,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 170,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.64,
      "ranking": 139,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_diff": -0.07000000000000028,
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    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": -137,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.8233333333333519,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 57.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.46,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 41.66666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": -0.4792879150975713,
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    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.35379309756384353,
    "rank_advantage": -59,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -8.333333333333329,
    "bp_converted_diff": -8.748333333333331,
    "p1_surface_matches": 12,
    "p2_surface_matches": 20,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.722166666666659,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 2.4615384615384617,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.166666666666667,
    "combined_confidence": 0.5633333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.696666666666644,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.16666666666666666,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.406455409997536,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.421988494313668,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.9482758130320277,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.75,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.8016666666666765,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6,
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    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
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    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.024333333333333207,
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    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.5208333333333335,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}