Arthur Gea vs Stan Wawrinka
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 09:00
22 Ene 2026, 09:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stan Wawrinka
Arthur …: 36,7%
Stan …: 63,3%
¿Por qué Stan Wawrinka?
UTR 14,57 vs 14,64
(-0,07)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Arthur … | Stan … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,67 | 2,20 | 59,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,67 | 2,32 | 59,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,73 | 1,58 | 36,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Arthur …: -20,2%
Stan …: +20,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Arthur Gea
Ranking
#198
UTR Rating
14,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#170
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
5/12 = 41,7%
Stan Wawrinka
Ranking
#139
UTR Rating
14,64 Pro
UTR Ranking
#139
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
10/20 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -59,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7020 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,3538 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -137,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -194,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -8,3333 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -3,5208 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 41,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 43,7500 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 12,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 20,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1667 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4600 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,6667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,5633 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -7,7222 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,6967 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,8017 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,8233 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -8,7483 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,1667 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 58,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 34,6650 | |
| current_streak_diff | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 2,4615 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6250 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,4065 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,4220 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 2,9483 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0243 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0590 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7729 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7812 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,4793 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23788
API ID
15345251
Gamdom ID
589748
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23788,
"api_id": 15345251,
"gamdom_id": 589748,
"player1": "Arthur Gea",
"player2": "Stan Wawrinka",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-22T05:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.32
},
"tnnslive": {
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"p2": 2.41
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3666,
"prob_p2": 0.6334,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6334,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"utr_singles": 14.57,
"utr_ranking": 170,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 12,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 139,
"utr_singles": 14.64,
"utr_ranking": 139,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 10,
"wr_surface_total": 20,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
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"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
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},
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},
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"features": {
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"rank_ratio": 0.702020202020202,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 40.0,
"points_diff": -137,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0.8233333333333519,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 57.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.46,
"p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 41.66666666666667,
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"utr_advantage": -0.4792879150975713,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -194,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.35379309756384353,
"rank_advantage": -59,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.625,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -8.333333333333329,
"bp_converted_diff": -8.748333333333331,
"p1_surface_matches": 12,
"p2_surface_matches": 20,
"serve_quality_diff": -7.722166666666659,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 2.4615384615384617,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.166666666666667,
"combined_confidence": 0.5633333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 3,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.696666666666644,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.16666666666666666,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.406455409997536,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.421988494313668,
"surface_rank_synergy": 2.9482758130320277,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.75,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.8016666666666765,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.6,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 34.66499999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.024333333333333207,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.05900000000000005,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.5208333333333335,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
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"feature_importance": {}
}