Denis Shapovalov vs Marin Čilić
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Denis Shapovalov
Denis …: 62,6% Marin …: 37,4%
¿Por qué Denis Shapovalov?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Denis … Marin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,30 61,7%
Gamdom 1,71 2,25 58,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,60 2,68 62,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Denis …: +4,0% Marin …: -4,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Denis Shapovalov
Ranking #23
UTR Rating 15,35 Pro
UTR Ranking #42
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 23/37 = 62,2%
Marin Čilić
Ranking #70
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 9/18 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 47,0000
rank_ratio 3,0435
log_rank_ratio 1,1130
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 860,0000
best_rank_diff -7,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 12,1622
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,7805
surface_matches_ratio 2,0556
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,1622
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,9756
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 18,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2432
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,6000
combined_confidence 0,8000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -1,1691
first_serve_won_diff -4,4324
second_serve_won_diff 2,8297
bp_saved_diff -3,6932
bp_converted_diff 13,4878
aces_per_match_diff 0,0991
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 42,0000
momentum_p2 62,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -24,7550
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8812
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6923
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5263
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4286
serve_consistency_p1 9,6842
serve_consistency_p2 7,6398
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 13,5365
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0746
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0470
elite_surface_amplifier 12,1622
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8647
utr_p2 0,8647
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23790
API ID 15345246
Gamdom ID 589737
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23790,
    "api_id": 15345246,
    "gamdom_id": 589737,
    "player1": "Denis Shapovalov",
    "player2": "Marin \u010cili\u0107",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-22T06:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.62,
      "p2": 2.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.71,
      "p2": 2.25
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.64,
      "p2": 1.49
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6264,
    "prob_p2": 0.3736,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6264,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 23,
      "utr_singles": 15.35,
      "utr_ranking": 42,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 70,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 42,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.8647058823529411,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
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    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
    "points_diff": 860,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.693243243243245,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -20.000000000000007,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.16216216216216,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
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    "best_rank_diff": -7,
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    "log_rank_ratio": 1.1130010261202095,
    "rank_advantage": 47,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5263157894736842,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.42857142857142855,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 12.162162162162161,
    "bp_converted_diff": 13.48783783783783,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 18,
    "serve_quality_diff": -1.169099099099114,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8812260536398467,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6923076923076923,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.09909909909909764,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.432432432432435,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.24324324324324326,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.684157997334518,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.63981923068391,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 13.53649896632687,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.97560975609756,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.8297297297297206,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.0555555555555554,
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    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
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    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07462162162162167,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.04699999999999993,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.78048780487805,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
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  "feature_importance": {}
}