Denis Shapovalov vs Marin Čilić
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 10:10
22 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Denis Shapovalov
Denis …: 62,6%
Marin …: 37,4%
¿Por qué Denis Shapovalov?
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Denis … | Marin … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,62 | 2,30 | 61,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,71 | 2,25 | 58,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,60 | 2,68 | 62,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Denis …: +4,0%
Marin …: -4,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Denis Shapovalov
Ranking
#23
UTR Rating
15,35 Pro
UTR Ranking
#42
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
23/37 = 62,2%
Marin Čilić
Ranking
#70
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
9/18 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 47,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 3,0435 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,1130 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 860,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -7,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 12,1622 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,7805 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,0556 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,1622 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,9756 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 18,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2432 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,6000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -1,1691 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,4324 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,8297 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,6932 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 13,4878 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0991 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 42,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -24,7550 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8812 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6923 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5263 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4286 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,6842 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,6398 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 13,5365 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0746 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0470 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 12,1622 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8647 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8647 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23790
API ID
15345246
Gamdom ID
589737
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23790,
"api_id": 15345246,
"gamdom_id": 589737,
"player1": "Denis Shapovalov",
"player2": "Marin \u010cili\u0107",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-22T06:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.62,
"p2": 2.3
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.71,
"p2": 2.25
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.64,
"p2": 1.49
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6264,
"prob_p2": 0.3736,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6264,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 23,
"utr_singles": 15.35,
"utr_ranking": 42,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
"wr_surface_wins": 23,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 70,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 9,
"wr_surface_total": 18,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.35,
"ranking": 42,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8647058823529411,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 3.0434782608695654,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
"momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
"points_diff": 860,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.693243243243245,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -20.000000000000007,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.6,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.16216216216216,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -7,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.1130010261202095,
"rank_advantage": 47,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5263157894736842,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.42857142857142855,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 12.162162162162161,
"bp_converted_diff": 13.48783783783783,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 18,
"serve_quality_diff": -1.169099099099114,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8812260536398467,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6923076923076923,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.09909909909909764,
"combined_confidence": 0.8,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.432432432432435,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.24324324324324326,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.684157997334518,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.63981923068391,
"surface_rank_synergy": 13.53649896632687,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.97560975609756,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.8297297297297206,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.0555555555555554,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -24.75500000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 12.162162162162161,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07462162162162167,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.04699999999999993,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.78048780487805,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}