Elena-Gabriela Ruse vs Ajla Tomljanovic
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ajla Tomljanovic
Elena-Gabriela …: 43,0% Ajla …: 57,0%
¿Por qué Ajla Tomljanovic?
UTR 12,16 vs 12,26 (-0,10) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elena-Gabriela … Ajla … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,20 59,9%
Gamdom 1,71 2,24 58,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,33 1,75 43,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Elena-Gabriela …: -13,9% Ajla …: +13,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena-Gabriela Ruse
Ranking #79
UTR Rating 12,16 Pro
UTR Ranking #63
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 12/24 = 50,0%
Ajla Tomljanovic
Ranking #78
UTR Rating 12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #54
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 14/27 = 51,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -1,0000
rank_ratio 0,9873
log_rank_ratio -0,0127
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -9,0000
best_rank_diff -19,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -1,8519
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -1,3710
surface_matches_ratio 0,8889
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 51,8519
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 51,6129
p1_surface_matches 24,0000
p2_surface_matches 27,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8000
p2_confidence 0,9000
combined_confidence 0,8500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,2753
first_serve_won_diff 1,8167
second_serve_won_diff -6,0917
bp_saved_diff -3,0375
bp_converted_diff -0,3083
aces_per_match_diff 0,5972
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 62,0000
momentum_diff 6,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 11,7200
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6154
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5288
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 16,4995
serve_consistency_p2 9,6362
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0236
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0010
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0175
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1000
utr_p1 0,4894
utr_p2 0,5012
utr_advantage -0,8190
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23793
API ID 15345436
Gamdom ID 589801
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23793,
    "api_id": 15345436,
    "gamdom_id": 589801,
    "player1": "Elena-Gabriela Ruse",
    "player2": "Ajla Tomljanovic",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-21T06:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.71,
      "p2": 2.24
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.18
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4296,
    "prob_p2": 0.5704,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5704,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 79,
      "utr_singles": 12.16,
      "utr_ranking": 63,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 24,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 78,
      "utr_singles": 12.26,
      "utr_ranking": 54,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.85185185185185,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.16,
      "ranking": 63,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.26,
      "ranking": 54,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4894117647058824,
    "utr_p2": 0.5011764705882352,
    "utr_diff": -0.09999999999999964,
    "rank_ratio": 0.9873417721518988,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
    "points_diff": -9,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.0375000000000014,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 5.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 51.85185185185185,
    "utr_advantage": -0.819000819000816,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -19,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.012739025777429714,
    "rank_advantage": -1,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -1.8518518518518476,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.30833333333334423,
    "p1_surface_matches": 24,
    "p2_surface_matches": 27,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.27527777777777374,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6153846153846154,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5288461538461539,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.5972222222222223,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8500000000000001,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.8166666666666629,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 16.49945317820614,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.636174598475762,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.02359078847672164,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.61290322580645,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.0916666666666615,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 11.719999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0010000000000000009,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.01751851851851849,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.3709677419354813,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}