Elena-Gabriela Ruse vs Ajla Tomljanovic
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 10:10
21 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ajla Tomljanovic
Elena-Gabriela …: 43,0%
Ajla …: 57,0%
¿Por qué Ajla Tomljanovic?
UTR 12,16 vs 12,26
(-0,10)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elena-Gabriela … | Ajla … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,67 | 2,20 | 59,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,71 | 2,24 | 58,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,33 | 1,75 | 43,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elena-Gabriela …: -13,9%
Ajla …: +13,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena-Gabriela Ruse
Ranking
#79
UTR Rating
12,16 Pro
UTR Ranking
#63
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
12/24 = 50,0%
Ajla Tomljanovic
Ranking
#78
UTR Rating
12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#54
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
14/27 = 51,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,9873 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,0127 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -9,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -19,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -1,8519 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -1,3710 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8889 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 51,8519 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 51,6129 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 24,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,2753 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,8167 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -6,0917 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,0375 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,3083 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,5972 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 6,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 11,7200 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6154 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5288 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 16,4995 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,6362 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0236 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0010 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0175 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4894 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5012 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,8190 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23793
API ID
15345436
Gamdom ID
589801
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23793,
"api_id": 15345436,
"gamdom_id": 589801,
"player1": "Elena-Gabriela Ruse",
"player2": "Ajla Tomljanovic",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-21T06:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.71,
"p2": 2.24
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.18
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4296,
"prob_p2": 0.5704,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5704,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 79,
"utr_singles": 12.16,
"utr_ranking": 63,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 24,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 78,
"utr_singles": 12.26,
"utr_ranking": 54,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 51.85185185185185,
"wr_surface_wins": 14,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 63,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.26,
"ranking": 54,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5011764705882352,
"utr_diff": -0.09999999999999964,
"rank_ratio": 0.9873417721518988,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 68.0,
"momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
"points_diff": -9,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.0375000000000014,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 5.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.8,
"p2_confidence": 0.9,
"surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 51.85185185185185,
"utr_advantage": -0.819000819000816,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -19,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.012739025777429714,
"rank_advantage": -1,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -1.8518518518518476,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.30833333333334423,
"p1_surface_matches": 24,
"p2_surface_matches": 27,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.27527777777777374,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6153846153846154,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5288461538461539,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.5972222222222223,
"combined_confidence": 0.8500000000000001,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.8166666666666629,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 16.49945317820614,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.636174598475762,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.02359078847672164,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.61290322580645,
"second_serve_won_diff": -6.0916666666666615,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 11.719999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0010000000000000009,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.01751851851851849,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.3709677419354813,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}