Elise Mertens vs Moyuka Uchijima
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 08:30
22 Ene 2026, 08:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elise Mertens
Elise …: 77,4%
Moyuka …: 22,6%
¿Por qué Elise Mertens?
UTR 12,45 vs 11,46
(+0,99)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elise … | Moyuka … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,20 | 4,50 | 83,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,13 | 7,00 | 88,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,29 | 4,42 | 77,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elise …: -1,6%
Moyuka …: +1,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elise Mertens
Ranking
#21
UTR Rating
12,45 Pro
UTR Ranking
#27
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
16/29 = 55,2%
Moyuka Uchijima
Ranking
#88
UTR Rating
11,46 Pro
UTR Ranking
#280
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
14/34 = 41,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 67,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 4,1905 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,4328 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1134,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 35,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 13,9959 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 12,2329 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8529 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 55,1724 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 41,1765 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 54,5455 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 42,1053 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 34,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1034 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 6,4574 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,9824 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,2412 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,9412 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,7176 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,0193 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 48,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 22,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 19,9160 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7984 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5833 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,4265 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,0280 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 20,0536 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0153 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0212 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 13,9959 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,9900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5235 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4071 | |
| utr_advantage | 8,2811 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23794
API ID
15345465
Gamdom ID
589803
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23794,
"api_id": 15345465,
"gamdom_id": 589803,
"player1": "Elise Mertens",
"player2": "Moyuka Uchijima",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-22T04:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.2,
"p2": 4.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.13,
"p2": 7.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.12,
"p2": 5.86
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7739,
"prob_p2": 0.2261,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7739,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 21,
"utr_singles": 12.45,
"utr_ranking": 27,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 88,
"utr_singles": 11.46,
"utr_ranking": 280,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 41.17647058823529,
"wr_surface_wins": 14,
"wr_surface_total": 34,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.45,
"ranking": 27,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.46,
"ranking": 280,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.40705882352941186,
"utr_diff": 0.9899999999999984,
"rank_ratio": 4.190476190476191,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 48.00000000000001,
"points_diff": 1134,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0.941176470588232,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 21.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
"surface_wr_p2": 41.17647058823529,
"utr_advantage": 8.281053952321193,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 35,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.4328143767547836,
"rank_advantage": 67,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5833333333333334,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 13.995943204868155,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.71764705882353,
"p1_surface_matches": 29,
"p2_surface_matches": 34,
"serve_quality_diff": 6.457363083164303,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7984496124031008,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.019269776876268,
"combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.982352941176465,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.426499805687028,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.027971999893895,
"surface_rank_synergy": 20.053588640178514,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.10526315789473,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.2411764705882291,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8529411764705882,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 19.915999999999997,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 13.995943204868155,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.015275862068965473,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.02123529411764713,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.232854864433811,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}