Elise Mertens vs Moyuka Uchijima
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 08:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elise Mertens
Elise …: 77,4% Moyuka …: 22,6%
¿Por qué Elise Mertens?
UTR 12,45 vs 11,46 (+0,99) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elise … Moyuka … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,20 4,50 83,3%
Gamdom 1,13 7,00 88,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,29 4,42 77,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Elise …: -1,6% Moyuka …: +1,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elise Mertens
Ranking #21
UTR Rating 12,45 Pro
UTR Ranking #27
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 16/29 = 55,2%
Moyuka Uchijima
Ranking #88
UTR Rating 11,46 Pro
UTR Ranking #280
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 14/34 = 41,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 67,0000
rank_ratio 4,1905
log_rank_ratio 1,4328
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1134,0000
best_rank_diff 35,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 13,9959
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 12,2329
surface_matches_ratio 0,8529
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 55,1724
surface_wr_p2 41,1765
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,5455
surface_wr_p2_stable 42,1053
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 34,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1034
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 6,4574
first_serve_won_diff 4,9824
second_serve_won_diff -0,2412
bp_saved_diff 0,9412
bp_converted_diff 4,7176
aces_per_match_diff 2,0193
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 48,0000
momentum_diff 22,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 19,9160
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8182
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7984
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5833
serve_consistency_p1 9,4265
serve_consistency_p2 6,0280
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 20,0536
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0153
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0212
elite_surface_amplifier 13,9959
UTR
utr_diff 0,9900
utr_p1 0,5235
utr_p2 0,4071
utr_advantage 8,2811
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23794
API ID 15345465
Gamdom ID 589803
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23794,
    "api_id": 15345465,
    "gamdom_id": 589803,
    "player1": "Elise Mertens",
    "player2": "Moyuka Uchijima",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-22T04:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.13,
      "p2": 7.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.12,
      "p2": 5.86
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7739,
    "prob_p2": 0.2261,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7739,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 21,
      "utr_singles": 12.45,
      "utr_ranking": 27,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 88,
      "utr_singles": 11.46,
      "utr_ranking": 280,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.17647058823529,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 34,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.45,
      "ranking": 27,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.46,
      "ranking": 280,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5235294117647058,
    "utr_p2": 0.40705882352941186,
    "utr_diff": 0.9899999999999984,
    "rank_ratio": 4.190476190476191,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 48.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 1134,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.941176470588232,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 21.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
    "surface_wr_p2": 41.17647058823529,
    "utr_advantage": 8.281053952321193,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 35,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.4328143767547836,
    "rank_advantage": 67,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5833333333333334,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 13.995943204868155,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.71764705882353,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 34,
    "serve_quality_diff": 6.457363083164303,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7984496124031008,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.019269776876268,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.982352941176465,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.426499805687028,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.027971999893895,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 20.053588640178514,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.10526315789473,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.2411764705882291,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8529411764705882,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 19.915999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 13.995943204868155,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.015275862068965473,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.02123529411764713,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.232854864433811,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}