Maria Sakkari vs Mirra Andreeva
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mirra Andreeva
Maria …: 23,7% Mirra …: 76,3%
¿Por qué Mirra Andreeva?
UTR 12,17 vs 12,64 (-0,47) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Maria … Mirra … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 4,50 1,20 22,2%
Gamdom 5,40 1,19 18,5%
IA Fair Odds 4,22 1,31 23,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Maria …: +2,6% Mirra …: -2,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maria Sakkari
Ranking #53
UTR Rating 12,17 Pro
UTR Ranking #60
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 15/35 = 42,9%
Mirra Andreeva
Ranking #7
UTR Rating 12,64 Pro
UTR Ranking #10
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 24/32 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -46,0000
rank_ratio 0,1321
log_rank_ratio -2,0244
rank_tier_advantage -3,0000
points_diff -3598,0000
best_rank_diff 2,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -32,1429
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -28,6325
surface_matches_ratio 1,0938
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 42,8571
surface_wr_p2 75,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 43,5897
surface_wr_p2_stable 72,2222
p1_surface_matches 35,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,2781
first_serve_won_diff -5,1229
second_serve_won_diff -5,2343
bp_saved_diff -5,6114
bp_converted_diff -6,0143
aces_per_match_diff -0,5732
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -27,7500
current_streak_diff -4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 8,0000
match_load_diff -5,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6810
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7446
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4444
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7143
serve_consistency_p1 10,5113
serve_consistency_p2 4,9943
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 65,0694
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0254
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2040
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4700
utr_p1 0,4906
utr_p2 0,5459
utr_advantage -3,7888
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23795
API ID 15345426
Gamdom ID 589788
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23795,
    "api_id": 15345426,
    "gamdom_id": 589788,
    "player1": "Maria Sakkari",
    "player2": "Mirra Andreeva",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-21T08:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 4.5,
      "p2": 1.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 5.4,
      "p2": 1.19
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 4.95,
      "p2": 1.17
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2368,
    "prob_p2": 0.7632,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7632,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 53,
      "utr_singles": 12.17,
      "utr_ranking": 60,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 7,
      "utr_singles": 12.64,
      "utr_ranking": 10,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.17,
      "ranking": 60,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.64,
      "ranking": 10,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5458823529411765,
    "utr_diff": -0.47000000000000064,
    "rank_ratio": 0.1320754716981132,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -3598,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -5.6114285714285685,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 8,
    "momentum_diff": -49.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
    "surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
    "utr_advantage": -3.7887948407900085,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 2,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.0243817644968085,
    "rank_advantage": -46,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -5,
    "surface_wr_diff": -32.142857142857146,
    "bp_converted_diff": -6.0142857142857125,
    "p1_surface_matches": 35,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.278142857142868,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6810344827586207,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7445652173913043,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.5732142857142857,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.12285714285715,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.51133086869962,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.994279762467194,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 65.069413858826,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.58974358974359,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 72.22222222222221,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.234285714285718,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.09375,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -27.75,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.02542857142857141,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.20399999999999996,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -28.632478632478623,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}