Maria Sakkari vs Mirra Andreeva
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
21 Ene 2026, 12:10
21 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mirra Andreeva
Maria …: 23,7%
Mirra …: 76,3%
¿Por qué Mirra Andreeva?
UTR 12,17 vs 12,64
(-0,47)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Maria … | Mirra … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 4,50 | 1,20 | 22,2% |
| Gamdom | 5,40 | 1,19 | 18,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,22 | 1,31 | 23,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Maria …: +2,6%
Mirra …: -2,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maria Sakkari
Ranking
#53
UTR Rating
12,17 Pro
UTR Ranking
#60
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
15/35 = 42,9%
Mirra Andreeva
Ranking
#7
UTR Rating
12,64 Pro
UTR Ranking
#10
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
24/32 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -46,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1321 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,0244 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -3,0000 | |
| points_diff | -3598,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -32,1429 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -28,6325 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0938 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 75,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 43,5897 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 72,2222 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -5,2781 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,1229 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -5,2343 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -5,6114 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -6,0143 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,5732 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -50,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -27,7500 | |
| current_streak_diff | -4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 8,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -5,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6810 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7446 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4444 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7143 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,5113 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,9943 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 65,0694 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0254 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2040 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4906 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5459 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,7888 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23795
API ID
15345426
Gamdom ID
589788
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23795,
"api_id": 15345426,
"gamdom_id": 589788,
"player1": "Maria Sakkari",
"player2": "Mirra Andreeva",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-21T08:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 4.5,
"p2": 1.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 5.4,
"p2": 1.19
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 4.95,
"p2": 1.17
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2368,
"prob_p2": 0.7632,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7632,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 53,
"utr_singles": 12.17,
"utr_ranking": 60,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 7,
"utr_singles": 12.64,
"utr_ranking": 10,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 75.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.17,
"ranking": 60,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.64,
"ranking": 10,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.49058823529411766,
"utr_p2": 0.5458823529411765,
"utr_diff": -0.47000000000000064,
"rank_ratio": 0.1320754716981132,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 50.0,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -3598,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -5.6114285714285685,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 8,
"momentum_diff": -49.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
"surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
"utr_advantage": -3.7887948407900085,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 2,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.0243817644968085,
"rank_advantage": -46,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -5,
"surface_wr_diff": -32.142857142857146,
"bp_converted_diff": -6.0142857142857125,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": -5.278142857142868,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6810344827586207,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7445652173913043,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.5732142857142857,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -4,
"rank_tier_advantage": -3,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.12285714285715,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.51133086869962,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.994279762467194,
"surface_rank_synergy": 65.069413858826,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.58974358974359,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 72.22222222222221,
"second_serve_won_diff": -5.234285714285718,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.09375,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -27.75,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.02542857142857141,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.20399999999999996,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -28.632478632478623,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}