Marie Bouzkova vs Iga Swiatek
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 10:05
22 Ene 2026, 10:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Marie …: 18,8%
Iga …: 81,3%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 12,48 vs 12,90
(-0,42)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Marie … | Iga … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 7,00 | 1,10 | 14,3% |
| Gamdom | 9,20 | 1,09 | 10,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 5,33 | 1,23 | 18,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Marie …: +5,2%
Iga …: -5,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marie Bouzkova
Ranking
#44
UTR Rating
12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking
#22
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
20/32 = 62,5%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking
#2
UTR Rating
12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -42,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0455 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -3,0910 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -7103,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -23,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -16,3462 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -15,6746 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6154 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 78,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 61,1111 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 76,7857 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 52,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2500 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -4,7020 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,9067 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -5,7327 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,3644 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,5731 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,2644 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 12,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 13,6660 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5962 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0586 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7143 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 16,5263 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 11,6437 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 50,5267 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1670 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2465 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5271 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5765 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,3097 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23796
API ID
15345430
Gamdom ID
589761
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23796,
"api_id": 15345430,
"gamdom_id": 589761,
"player1": "Marie Bouzkova",
"player2": "Iga Swiatek",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-22T06:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 7.0,
"p2": 1.1
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 9.2,
"p2": 1.09
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 7.68,
"p2": 1.09
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1875,
"prob_p2": 0.8125,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8125,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 44,
"utr_singles": 12.48,
"utr_ranking": 22,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.5,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 2,
"utr_singles": 12.9,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
"wr_surface_wins": 41,
"wr_surface_total": 52,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 22,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 3,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": -0.41999999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 0.045454545454545456,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": -7103,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.3644230769230816,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 12.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
"surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
"utr_advantage": -3.3096926713947985,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -23,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -3.0910424533583156,
"rank_advantage": -42,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -16.34615384615384,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.5730769230769184,
"p1_surface_matches": 32,
"p2_surface_matches": 52,
"serve_quality_diff": -4.702019230769224,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5961538461538461,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.2644230769230771,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.906730769230762,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
"serve_consistency_p1": 16.526284397236324,
"serve_consistency_p2": 11.643733304048208,
"surface_rank_synergy": 50.52665548758783,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.111111111111114,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
"second_serve_won_diff": -5.732692307692304,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.6153846153846154,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 13.665999999999997,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.16700000000000004,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2464615384615384,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -15.674603174603178,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}