Marie Bouzkova vs Iga Swiatek
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 10:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Marie …: 18,8% Iga …: 81,3%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 12,48 vs 12,90 (-0,42) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Marie … Iga … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 7,00 1,10 14,3%
Gamdom 9,20 1,09 10,9%
IA Fair Odds 5,33 1,23 18,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Marie …: +5,2% Iga …: -5,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marie Bouzkova
Ranking #44
UTR Rating 12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking #22
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 20/32 = 62,5%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking #2
UTR Rating 12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #3
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -42,0000
rank_ratio 0,0455
log_rank_ratio -3,0910
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -7103,0000
best_rank_diff -23,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -16,3462
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -15,6746
surface_matches_ratio 0,6154
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,5000
surface_wr_p2 78,8462
surface_wr_p1_stable 61,1111
surface_wr_p2_stable 76,7857
p1_surface_matches 32,0000
p2_surface_matches 52,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2500
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,7020
first_serve_won_diff -4,9067
second_serve_won_diff -5,7327
bp_saved_diff 1,3644
bp_converted_diff -0,5731
aces_per_match_diff -0,2644
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 62,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff 12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 13,6660
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5962
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0586
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7143
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 16,5263
serve_consistency_p2 11,6437
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 50,5267
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1670
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2465
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4200
utr_p1 0,5271
utr_p2 0,5765
utr_advantage -3,3097
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23796
API ID 15345430
Gamdom ID 589761
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23796,
    "api_id": 15345430,
    "gamdom_id": 589761,
    "player1": "Marie Bouzkova",
    "player2": "Iga Swiatek",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-22T06:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 7.0,
      "p2": 1.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 9.2,
      "p2": 1.09
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 7.68,
      "p2": 1.09
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1875,
    "prob_p2": 0.8125,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8125,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 44,
      "utr_singles": 12.48,
      "utr_ranking": 22,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 2,
      "utr_singles": 12.9,
      "utr_ranking": 3,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
      "wr_surface_wins": 41,
      "wr_surface_total": 52,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.48,
      "ranking": 22,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.9,
      "ranking": 3,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5270588235294118,
    "utr_p2": 0.5764705882352942,
    "utr_diff": -0.41999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 0.045454545454545456,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": -7103,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.3644230769230816,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 12.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
    "utr_advantage": -3.3096926713947985,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -23,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -3.0910424533583156,
    "rank_advantage": -42,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -16.34615384615384,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.5730769230769184,
    "p1_surface_matches": 32,
    "p2_surface_matches": 52,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.702019230769224,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5961538461538461,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.2644230769230771,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.906730769230762,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 16.526284397236324,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.643733304048208,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 50.52665548758783,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.111111111111114,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.732692307692304,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6153846153846154,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 13.665999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.16700000000000004,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2464615384615384,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -15.674603174603178,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}