Francesco Maestrelli vs Novak Djokovic
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 06:30
22 Ene 2026, 06:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Novak Djokovic
Francesco …: 7,9%
Novak …: 92,1%
¿Por qué Novak Djokovic?
UTR 14,34 vs 16,05
(-1,71)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Francesco … | Novak … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 23,00 | 1,01 | 4,3% |
| Gamdom | 26,00 | 1,01 | 3,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 12,61 | 1,09 | 7,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Francesco …: +3,7%
Novak …: -3,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Francesco Maestrelli
Ranking
#141
UTR Rating
14,34 Pro
UTR Ranking
#224
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
17/26 = 65,4%
Novak Djokovic
Ranking
#4
UTR Rating
16,05 Pro
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
21/28 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -137,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0284 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -3,5625 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -4,0000 | |
| points_diff | -4344,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -136,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -9,6154 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -7,6875 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9286 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 65,3846 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 75,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 63,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 71,8750 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3077 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -8,5224 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -7,0538 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -6,3769 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,8615 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -7,1231 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,5412 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1065 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7143 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,8052 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,0821 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 34,2545 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2908 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1130 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,7100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7459 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9471 | |
| utr_advantage | -11,2537 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23807
API ID
15345242
Gamdom ID
589746
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23807,
"api_id": 15345242,
"gamdom_id": 589746,
"player1": "Francesco Maestrelli",
"player2": "Novak Djokovic",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-22T02:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 23.0,
"p2": 1.01
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 26.0,
"p2": 1.01
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 21.08,
"p2": 1.01
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.0793,
"prob_p2": 0.9207,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.9207,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 141,
"utr_singles": 14.34,
"utr_ranking": 224,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.38461538461539,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 4,
"utr_singles": 16.05,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 75.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 224,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 3,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9470588235294118,
"utr_diff": -1.7100000000000009,
"rank_ratio": 0.028368794326241134,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -4344,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.8615384615384514,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -2.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 65.38461538461539,
"surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
"utr_advantage": -11.253701875616985,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -136,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -3.5624655292582776,
"rank_advantage": -137,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 3,
"surface_wr_diff": -9.615384615384613,
"bp_converted_diff": -7.123076923076923,
"p1_surface_matches": 26,
"p2_surface_matches": 28,
"serve_quality_diff": -8.522417582417589,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.106508875739645,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.5412087912087902,
"combined_confidence": 0.9,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -4,
"first_serve_won_diff": -7.053846153846152,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.3076923076923077,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.805152491194365,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.082087166385891,
"surface_rank_synergy": 34.254476242868044,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.875,
"second_serve_won_diff": -6.376923076923077,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9285714285714286,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.29084615384615387,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.11299999999999999,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.687500000000004,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}