Francesco Maestrelli vs Novak Djokovic
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 06:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Novak Djokovic
Francesco …: 7,9% Novak …: 92,1%
¿Por qué Novak Djokovic?
UTR 14,34 vs 16,05 (-1,71) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Francesco … Novak … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 23,00 1,01 4,3%
Gamdom 26,00 1,01 3,8%
IA Fair Odds 12,61 1,09 7,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Francesco …: +3,7% Novak …: -3,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Francesco Maestrelli
Ranking #141
UTR Rating 14,34 Pro
UTR Ranking #224
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 17/26 = 65,4%
Novak Djokovic
Ranking #4
UTR Rating 16,05 Pro
UTR Ranking #3
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 21/28 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -137,0000
rank_ratio 0,0284
log_rank_ratio -3,5625
rank_tier_advantage -4,0000
points_diff -4344,0000
best_rank_diff -136,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -9,6154
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -7,6875
surface_matches_ratio 0,9286
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,3846
surface_wr_p2 75,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 71,8750
p1_surface_matches 26,0000
p2_surface_matches 28,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3077
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8667
p2_confidence 0,9333
combined_confidence 0,9000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -8,5224
first_serve_won_diff -7,0538
second_serve_won_diff -6,3769
bp_saved_diff -2,8615
bp_converted_diff -7,1231
aces_per_match_diff -1,5412
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1065
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7143
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 10,8052
serve_consistency_p2 9,0821
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 34,2545
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2908
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1130
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,7100
utr_p1 0,7459
utr_p2 0,9471
utr_advantage -11,2537
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23807
API ID 15345242
Gamdom ID 589746
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23807,
    "api_id": 15345242,
    "gamdom_id": 589746,
    "player1": "Francesco Maestrelli",
    "player2": "Novak Djokovic",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-22T02:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 23.0,
      "p2": 1.01
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 26.0,
      "p2": 1.01
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 21.08,
      "p2": 1.01
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.0793,
    "prob_p2": 0.9207,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9207,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 141,
      "utr_singles": 14.34,
      "utr_ranking": 224,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.38461538461539,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 4,
      "utr_singles": 16.05,
      "utr_ranking": 3,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.34,
      "ranking": 224,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 16.05,
      "ranking": 3,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7458823529411764,
    "utr_p2": 0.9470588235294118,
    "utr_diff": -1.7100000000000009,
    "rank_ratio": 0.028368794326241134,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -4344,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.8615384615384514,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.38461538461539,
    "surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
    "utr_advantage": -11.253701875616985,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -136,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -3.5624655292582776,
    "rank_advantage": -137,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 3,
    "surface_wr_diff": -9.615384615384613,
    "bp_converted_diff": -7.123076923076923,
    "p1_surface_matches": 26,
    "p2_surface_matches": 28,
    "serve_quality_diff": -8.522417582417589,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.106508875739645,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.5412087912087902,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.053846153846152,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3076923076923077,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.805152491194365,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.082087166385891,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 34.254476242868044,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.875,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.376923076923077,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9285714285714286,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.29084615384615387,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.11299999999999999,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.687500000000004,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}