Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 04:30
22 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo …: 64,4%
Lorenzo …: 35,6%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Musetti?
UTR 15,77 vs 15,30
(+0,47)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Lorenzo … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,36 | 3,20 | 73,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,38 | 3,25 | 72,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,55 | 2,81 | 64,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: -5,8%
Lorenzo …: +5,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#9
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/37 = 59,5%
Lorenzo Sonego
Ranking
#40
UTR Rating
15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking
#49
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
20/40 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 35,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 8,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 2,0794 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 2865,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 16,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 9,4595 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,5366 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9250 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 59,4595 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,5366 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 40,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1892 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,0647 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,8122 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 7,8361 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -6,3139 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,4172 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,0047 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 15,1300 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0545 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,4714 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3750 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,9981 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 2,6279 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 19,6704 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0596 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0350 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 18,9189 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,4700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9141 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8588 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,0254 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23823
API ID
15345243
Gamdom ID
589739
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23823,
"api_id": 15345243,
"gamdom_id": 589739,
"player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
"player2": "Lorenzo Sonego",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-22T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3599999999999999,
"p2": 3.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.38,
"p2": 3.25
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.36,
"p2": 3.13
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6441,
"prob_p2": 0.3559,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6441,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 15.77,
"utr_ranking": 9,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 40,
"utr_singles": 15.3,
"utr_ranking": 49,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 40,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 9,
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},
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"division": "Pro",
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},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": 0.46999999999999886,
"rank_ratio": 8.0,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
"points_diff": 2865,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -6.313851351351353,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 7.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 3.025426456388792,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 16,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 2.0794415416798357,
"rank_advantage": 35,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.375,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 3,
"surface_wr_diff": 9.45945945945946,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.4172297297297263,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 40,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.0646959459459566,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.47136563876652,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.00472972972973,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.8121621621621671,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.998085046035043,
"serve_consistency_p2": 2.6279019076553713,
"surface_rank_synergy": 19.670392961836285,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 7.836148648648653,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.925,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 15.129999999999995,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 18.91891891891892,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.05959459459459471,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03499999999999992,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.536585365853654,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
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"feature_importance": {}
}