Sebastián Báez vs Luciano Darderi
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sebastián Báez
Sebastián …: 54,3% Luciano …: 45,7%
¿Por qué Sebastián Báez?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sebastián … Luciano … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,80 2,00 55,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,84 2,19 54,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Sebastián …: +1,7% Luciano …: -1,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastián Báez
Ranking #36
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 3/14 = 21,4%
Luciano Darderi
Ranking #25
UTR Rating 15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #80
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 6/20 = 30,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -11,0000
rank_ratio 0,6944
log_rank_ratio -0,3646
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -209,0000
best_rank_diff 6,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -8,5714
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -3,2037
surface_matches_ratio 0,7000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 21,4286
surface_wr_p2 30,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 27,7778
surface_wr_p2_stable 33,3333
p1_surface_matches 14,0000
p2_surface_matches 20,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,5714
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4867
p2_confidence 0,6667
combined_confidence 0,5767
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -12,3824
first_serve_won_diff -0,4679
second_serve_won_diff -2,8757
bp_saved_diff -0,7436
bp_converted_diff -1,3157
aces_per_match_diff -5,6429
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 12,2700
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 7,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5441
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7658
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3000
serve_consistency_p1 4,5415
serve_consistency_p2 7,1274
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 3,1255
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2747
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2110
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8365
utr_p2 0,8365
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23829
API ID 15345269
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23829,
    "api_id": 15345269,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Sebasti\u00e1n B\u00e1ez",
    "player2": "Luciano Darderi",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-22T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.8,
      "p2": 2.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.56,
      "p2": 2.39
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5434,
    "prob_p2": 0.4566,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5434,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 36,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 21.428571428571427,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 14,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 25,
      "utr_singles": 15.11,
      "utr_ranking": 80,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 30.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 20,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.11,
      "ranking": 80,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_diff": 0.0,
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    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": -209,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.7435714285714212,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 7,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 9.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 21.428571428571427,
    "surface_wr_p2": 30.0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
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    "best_rank_diff": 6,
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    "log_rank_ratio": -0.3646431135879093,
    "rank_advantage": -11,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 4,
    "surface_wr_diff": -8.571428571428573,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.3157142857142858,
    "p1_surface_matches": 14,
    "p2_surface_matches": 20,
    "serve_quality_diff": -12.382357142857146,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5441176470588235,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7657657657657657,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -5.642857142857142,
    "combined_confidence": 0.5766666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.46785714285712743,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.5714285714285714,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.541519911555803,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.127421065013554,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 3.12551240218208,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 27.77777777777778,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 33.33333333333333,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.875714285714295,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 12.27000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
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    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.2747142857142857,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.21100000000000002,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.2037037037037006,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
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  "feature_importance": {}
}