Sebastián Báez vs Luciano Darderi
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 04:00
22 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sebastián Báez
Sebastián …: 54,3%
Luciano …: 45,7%
¿Por qué Sebastián Báez?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sebastián … | Luciano … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,80 | 2,00 | 55,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,84 | 2,19 | 54,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Sebastián …: +1,7%
Luciano …: -1,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastián Báez
Ranking
#36
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
3/14 = 21,4%
Luciano Darderi
Ranking
#25
UTR Rating
15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#80
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
6/20 = 30,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -11,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6944 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,3646 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -209,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 6,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -8,5714 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -3,2037 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 21,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 27,7778 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 33,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 20,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,5714 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,6667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,5767 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -12,3824 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,4679 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,8757 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,7436 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -1,3157 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -5,6429 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 12,2700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 7,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5441 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7658 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,5415 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,1274 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 3,1255 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,2747 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,2110 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8365 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8365 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23829
API ID
15345269
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23829,
"api_id": 15345269,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Sebasti\u00e1n B\u00e1ez",
"player2": "Luciano Darderi",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-22T00:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.8,
"p2": 2.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.56,
"p2": 2.39
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5434,
"prob_p2": 0.4566,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5434,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 36,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 21.428571428571427,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 25,
"utr_singles": 15.11,
"utr_ranking": 80,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 30.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 20,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.11,
"ranking": 80,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8364705882352941,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.6944444444444444,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
"points_diff": -209,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.7435714285714212,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 7,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 9.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 21.428571428571427,
"surface_wr_p2": 30.0,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 6,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.3646431135879093,
"rank_advantage": -11,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 4,
"surface_wr_diff": -8.571428571428573,
"bp_converted_diff": -1.3157142857142858,
"p1_surface_matches": 14,
"p2_surface_matches": 20,
"serve_quality_diff": -12.382357142857146,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5441176470588235,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7657657657657657,
"aces_per_match_diff": -5.642857142857142,
"combined_confidence": 0.5766666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.46785714285712743,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.5714285714285714,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.541519911555803,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.127421065013554,
"surface_rank_synergy": 3.12551240218208,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 27.77777777777778,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 33.33333333333333,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.875714285714295,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 12.27000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.2747142857142857,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.21100000000000002,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.2037037037037006,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}