Elena Rybakina vs Varvara Gracheva
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 14:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Elena …: 89,2% Varvara …: 10,8%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,98 vs 12,08 (+0,90) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elena … Varvara … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,06 10,00 94,3%
Gamdom 1,03 17,00 97,1%
IA Fair Odds 1,12 9,26 89,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Elena …: -1,2% Varvara …: +1,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking #1
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 43/55 = 78,2%
Varvara Gracheva
Ranking #77
UTR Rating 12,08 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 18/32 = 56,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 72,0000
rank_ratio 15,4000
log_rank_ratio 2,7344
rank_tier_advantage 3,0000
points_diff 4963,0000
best_rank_diff 36,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 21,9318
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 20,7156
surface_matches_ratio 1,7188
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 78,1818
surface_wr_p2 56,2500
surface_wr_p1_stable 76,2712
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,5556
p1_surface_matches 55,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,5636
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 16,1821
first_serve_won_diff 14,4167
second_serve_won_diff 1,4200
bp_saved_diff 13,0798
bp_converted_diff -0,3239
aces_per_match_diff 4,2739
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 42,0000
momentum_diff 28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 25,8850
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8980
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5867
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6471
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,2000
serve_consistency_p1 6,7863
serve_consistency_p2 5,6295
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 59,9697
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2098
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1345
elite_surface_amplifier 65,7955
UTR
utr_diff 0,9000
utr_p1 0,5859
utr_p2 0,4800
utr_advantage 7,1828
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23833
API ID 15345462
Gamdom ID 589794
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23833,
    "api_id": 15345462,
    "gamdom_id": 589794,
    "player1": "Elena Rybakina",
    "player2": "Varvara Gracheva",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-22T10:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.06,
      "p2": 10.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.03,
      "p2": 17.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.04,
      "p2": 12.26
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.892,
    "prob_p2": 0.108,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.892,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 12.98,
      "utr_ranking": 1,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
      "wr_surface_wins": 43,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 77,
      "utr_singles": 12.08,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.98,
      "ranking": 1,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.08,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5858823529411765,
    "utr_p2": 0.48,
    "utr_diff": 0.9000000000000004,
    "rank_ratio": 15.4,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 4963,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 13.079829545454551,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 27.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.25,
    "utr_advantage": 7.182761372705509,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 36,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.7343675094195836,
    "rank_advantage": 72,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 21.931818181818187,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.3239204545454655,
    "p1_surface_matches": 55,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": 16.182079545454542,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5866666666666667,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.273863636363636,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 14.416704545454543,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.786330960921431,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.6295374079558975,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 59.96965105886134,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.55555555555556,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.4200000000000017,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.71875,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 25.88500000000002,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 65.79545454545456,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2098181818181818,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.13450000000000006,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 20.71563088512241,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}