Elena Rybakina vs Varvara Gracheva
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 14:30
22 Ene 2026, 14:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Elena …: 89,2%
Varvara …: 10,8%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,98 vs 12,08
(+0,90)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elena … | Varvara … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,06 | 10,00 | 94,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,03 | 17,00 | 97,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,12 | 9,26 | 89,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elena …: -1,2%
Varvara …: +1,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
43/55 = 78,2%
Varvara Gracheva
Ranking
#77
UTR Rating
12,08 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
18/32 = 56,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 72,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 15,4000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 2,7344 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| points_diff | 4963,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 36,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 21,9318 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 20,7156 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,7188 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 78,1818 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 56,2500 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 76,2712 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,5556 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,5636 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 16,1821 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 14,4167 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,4200 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 13,0798 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,3239 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,2739 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 42,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 28,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 25,8850 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8980 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5867 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6471 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,2000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,7863 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,6295 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 59,9697 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2098 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1345 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 65,7955 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,9000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5859 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4800 | |
| utr_advantage | 7,1828 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23833
API ID
15345462
Gamdom ID
589794
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23833,
"api_id": 15345462,
"gamdom_id": 589794,
"player1": "Elena Rybakina",
"player2": "Varvara Gracheva",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-22T10:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.06,
"p2": 10.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.03,
"p2": 17.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.04,
"p2": 12.26
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.892,
"prob_p2": 0.108,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.892,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 12.98,
"utr_ranking": 1,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
"wr_surface_wins": 43,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 77,
"utr_singles": 12.08,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.25,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 1,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.08,
"ranking": 79,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.48,
"utr_diff": 0.9000000000000004,
"rank_ratio": 15.4,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
"points_diff": 4963,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 13.079829545454551,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 27.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
"surface_wr_p2": 56.25,
"utr_advantage": 7.182761372705509,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 36,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 2.7343675094195836,
"rank_advantage": 72,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 21.931818181818187,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.3239204545454655,
"p1_surface_matches": 55,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": 16.182079545454542,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5866666666666667,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.273863636363636,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 3,
"first_serve_won_diff": 14.416704545454543,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.786330960921431,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.6295374079558975,
"surface_rank_synergy": 59.96965105886134,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.55555555555556,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.4200000000000017,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.71875,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 25.88500000000002,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 65.79545454545456,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2098181818181818,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.13450000000000006,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 20.71563088512241,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}