Xinyu Wang vs Jelena Ostapenko
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 06:45
22 Ene 2026, 06:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Xinyu Wang
Xinyu …: 60,4%
Jelena …: 39,6%
¿Por qué Xinyu Wang?
UTR 12,25 vs 12,10
(+0,15)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Xinyu … | Jelena … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,73 | 2,10 | 57,8% |
| Gamdom | 1,66 | 2,34 | 60,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,66 | 2,52 | 60,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Xinyu …: +5,6%
Jelena …: -5,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Xinyu Wang
Ranking
#46
UTR Rating
12,25 Pro
UTR Ranking
#54
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
12/27 = 44,4%
Jelena Ostapenko
Ranking
#24
UTR Rating
12,10 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
8/21 = 38,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -22,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5217 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,6506 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -544,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -27,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 6,3492 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,1290 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,2857 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 44,4444 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 38,0952 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 45,1613 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 40,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 21,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1111 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -3,4412 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,8222 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,7704 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 2,7889 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,4481 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,8995 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 22,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 12,6350 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7416 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7374 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2500 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,1808 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 23,5568 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -4,1307 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0336 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1410 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4824 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,2320 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23834
API ID
15345469
Gamdom ID
589815
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23834,
"api_id": 15345469,
"gamdom_id": 589815,
"player1": "Xinyu Wang",
"player2": "Jelena Ostapenko",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-22T02:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.73,
"p2": 2.1
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.66,
"p2": 2.34
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.64,
"p2": 2.23
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6039,
"prob_p2": 0.3961,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6039,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 46,
"utr_singles": 12.25,
"utr_ranking": 54,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 44.44444444444444,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 24,
"utr_singles": 12.1,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 38.095238095238095,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 21,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 54,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 79,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.48235294117647054,
"utr_diff": 0.15000000000000036,
"rank_ratio": 0.5217391304347826,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
"momentum_p2": 40.0,
"points_diff": -544,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 2.7888888888888914,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 6,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 22.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 0.9,
"p2_confidence": 0.7,
"surface_wr_p1": 44.44444444444444,
"surface_wr_p2": 38.095238095238095,
"utr_advantage": 1.2320328542094483,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -27,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.6505875661411494,
"rank_advantage": -22,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.25,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 4,
"surface_wr_diff": 6.349206349206348,
"bp_converted_diff": 0.4481481481481424,
"p1_surface_matches": 27,
"p2_surface_matches": 21,
"serve_quality_diff": -3.4411640211640133,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7415730337078652,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7373737373737373,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.8994708994708991,
"combined_confidence": 0.8,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.822222222222223,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.1111111111111111,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.180820660134913,
"serve_consistency_p2": 23.556780525835624,
"surface_rank_synergy": -4.13071470565809,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 45.16129032258064,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.7703703703703653,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.2857142857142858,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 12.635000000000005,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.03355555555555556,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.1410476190476191,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.1290322580645125,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}