Xinyu Wang vs Jelena Ostapenko
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 06:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Xinyu Wang
Xinyu …: 60,4% Jelena …: 39,6%
¿Por qué Xinyu Wang?
UTR 12,25 vs 12,10 (+0,15) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Xinyu … Jelena … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,73 2,10 57,8%
Gamdom 1,66 2,34 60,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,66 2,52 60,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Xinyu …: +5,6% Jelena …: -5,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Xinyu Wang
Ranking #46
UTR Rating 12,25 Pro
UTR Ranking #54
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 12/27 = 44,4%
Jelena Ostapenko
Ranking #24
UTR Rating 12,10 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 8/21 = 38,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -22,0000
rank_ratio 0,5217
log_rank_ratio -0,6506
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -544,0000
best_rank_diff -27,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 6,3492
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,1290
surface_matches_ratio 1,2857
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 44,4444
surface_wr_p2 38,0952
surface_wr_p1_stable 45,1613
surface_wr_p2_stable 40,0000
p1_surface_matches 27,0000
p2_surface_matches 21,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1111
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9000
p2_confidence 0,7000
combined_confidence 0,8000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,4412
first_serve_won_diff -2,8222
second_serve_won_diff -0,7704
bp_saved_diff 2,7889
bp_converted_diff 0,4481
aces_per_match_diff -0,8995
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 62,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 22,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 12,6350
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 6,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7416
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7374
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2500
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 8,1808
serve_consistency_p2 23,5568
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -4,1307
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0336
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1410
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1500
utr_p1 0,5000
utr_p2 0,4824
utr_advantage 1,2320
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23834
API ID 15345469
Gamdom ID 589815
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23834,
    "api_id": 15345469,
    "gamdom_id": 589815,
    "player1": "Xinyu Wang",
    "player2": "Jelena Ostapenko",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-22T02:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.73,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.66,
      "p2": 2.34
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.64,
      "p2": 2.23
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6039,
    "prob_p2": 0.3961,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6039,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 46,
      "utr_singles": 12.25,
      "utr_ranking": 54,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 44.44444444444444,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 24,
      "utr_singles": 12.1,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 38.095238095238095,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 21,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.25,
      "ranking": 54,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.1,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5,
    "utr_p2": 0.48235294117647054,
    "utr_diff": 0.15000000000000036,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5217391304347826,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": -544,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 2.7888888888888914,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 6,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 22.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7,
    "surface_wr_p1": 44.44444444444444,
    "surface_wr_p2": 38.095238095238095,
    "utr_advantage": 1.2320328542094483,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -27,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.6505875661411494,
    "rank_advantage": -22,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.25,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 4,
    "surface_wr_diff": 6.349206349206348,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.4481481481481424,
    "p1_surface_matches": 27,
    "p2_surface_matches": 21,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.4411640211640133,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7415730337078652,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7373737373737373,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.8994708994708991,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.822222222222223,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.1111111111111111,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.180820660134913,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 23.556780525835624,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -4.13071470565809,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 45.16129032258064,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.7703703703703653,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.2857142857142858,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 12.635000000000005,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.03355555555555556,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.1410476190476191,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.1290322580645125,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}