Tomas Machac vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 10:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tomas …: 32,1% Stefanos …: 67,9%
¿Por qué Stefanos Tsitsipas?
UTR 15,26 vs 15,45 (-0,19) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Tomas … Stefanos … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,57 2,38 63,7%
Gamdom 1,54 2,65 64,9%
IA Fair Odds 3,11 1,47 32,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Tomas …: -28,1% Stefanos …: +28,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tomas Machac
Ranking #24
UTR Rating 15,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #56
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 17/29 = 58,6%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Ranking #35
UTR Rating 15,45 Pro
UTR Ranking #30
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 13/23 = 56,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 11,0000
rank_ratio 1,4583
log_rank_ratio 0,3773
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 155,0000
best_rank_diff -17,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 2,0990
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 1,7508
surface_matches_ratio 1,2609
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 58,6207
surface_wr_p2 56,5217
surface_wr_p1_stable 57,5758
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,5556
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 23,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1724
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 0,7667
combined_confidence 0,8667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,0634
first_serve_won_diff -4,9979
second_serve_won_diff 4,2954
bp_saved_diff 0,4778
bp_converted_diff 9,8348
aces_per_match_diff -1,9265
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 8,5150
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 6,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0582
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,2295
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6429
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6154
serve_consistency_p1 2,4562
serve_consistency_p2 7,3369
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,7919
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0752
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0762
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1900
utr_p1 0,8541
utr_p2 0,8765
utr_advantage -1,2374
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23846
API ID 15345250
Gamdom ID 589731
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23846,
    "api_id": 15345250,
    "gamdom_id": 589731,
    "player1": "Tomas Machac",
    "player2": "Stefanos Tsitsipas",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-22T06:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5699999999999998,
      "p2": 2.38
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.54,
      "p2": 2.65
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.55,
      "p2": 2.42
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3213,
    "prob_p2": 0.6787,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6787,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 24,
      "utr_singles": 15.26,
      "utr_ranking": 56,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 35,
      "utr_singles": 15.45,
      "utr_ranking": 30,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.52173913043478,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.26,
      "ranking": 56,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.45,
      "ranking": 30,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8541176470588235,
    "utr_p2": 0.876470588235294,
    "utr_diff": -0.1899999999999995,
    "rank_ratio": 1.4583333333333333,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": 155,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.47781109445277536,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 6,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 29.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 58.620689655172406,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.52173913043478,
    "utr_advantage": -1.2373819602735232,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -17,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.377294231141468,
    "rank_advantage": 11,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6428571428571429,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6153846153846154,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 4,
    "surface_wr_diff": 2.0989505247376243,
    "bp_converted_diff": 9.834782608695654,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 23,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.063418290854571,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0582010582010581,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.2295081967213115,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.9265367316341822,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.997901049475246,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1724137931034483,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.456197097146816,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.336927756560444,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.7919219244348628,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 57.57575757575758,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.55555555555556,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.295352323838081,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.2608695652173914,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 8.514999999999986,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07520689655172408,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07621739130434779,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.7508417508417513,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}