Tomas Machac vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 10:05
22 Ene 2026, 10:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tomas …: 32,1%
Stefanos …: 67,9%
¿Por qué Stefanos Tsitsipas?
UTR 15,26 vs 15,45
(-0,19)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Tomas … | Stefanos … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,57 | 2,38 | 63,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,54 | 2,65 | 64,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,11 | 1,47 | 32,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Tomas …: -28,1%
Stefanos …: +28,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tomas Machac
Ranking
#24
UTR Rating
15,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#56
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
17/29 = 58,6%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Ranking
#35
UTR Rating
15,45 Pro
UTR Ranking
#30
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
13/23 = 56,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 11,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,4583 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,3773 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 155,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -17,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 2,0990 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 1,7508 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,2609 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 58,6207 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 56,5217 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 57,5758 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,5556 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1724 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -5,0634 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,9979 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 4,2954 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,4778 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 9,8348 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,9265 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 8,5150 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0582 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,2295 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6429 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6154 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 2,4562 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,3369 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,7919 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0752 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0762 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8541 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8765 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,2374 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23846
API ID
15345250
Gamdom ID
589731
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23846,
"api_id": 15345250,
"gamdom_id": 589731,
"player1": "Tomas Machac",
"player2": "Stefanos Tsitsipas",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-22T06:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5699999999999998,
"p2": 2.38
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.54,
"p2": 2.65
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.55,
"p2": 2.42
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3213,
"prob_p2": 0.6787,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6787,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 24,
"utr_singles": 15.26,
"utr_ranking": 56,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 35,
"utr_singles": 15.45,
"utr_ranking": 30,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.52173913043478,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 56,
"division": "Pro",
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},
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"ranking": 30,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.876470588235294,
"utr_diff": -0.1899999999999995,
"rank_ratio": 1.4583333333333333,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 70.0,
"points_diff": 155,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0.47781109445277536,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 6,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 29.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 58.620689655172406,
"surface_wr_p2": 56.52173913043478,
"utr_advantage": -1.2373819602735232,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -17,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.377294231141468,
"rank_advantage": 11,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6428571428571429,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6153846153846154,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 4,
"surface_wr_diff": 2.0989505247376243,
"bp_converted_diff": 9.834782608695654,
"p1_surface_matches": 29,
"p2_surface_matches": 23,
"serve_quality_diff": -5.063418290854571,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0582010582010581,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.2295081967213115,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.9265367316341822,
"combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.997901049475246,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.1724137931034483,
"serve_consistency_p1": 2.456197097146816,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.336927756560444,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.7919219244348628,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 57.57575757575758,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.55555555555556,
"second_serve_won_diff": 4.295352323838081,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.2608695652173914,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 8.514999999999986,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07520689655172408,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07621739130434779,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.7508417508417513,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}