Naomi Osaka vs Sorana Cirstea
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 12:10
22 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Naomi Osaka
Naomi …: 69,9%
Sorana …: 30,1%
¿Por qué Naomi Osaka?
UTR 12,60 vs 12,48
(+0,12)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Naomi … | Sorana … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,40 | 3,00 | 71,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,59 | 2,48 | 62,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,43 | 3,32 | 69,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Naomi …: +1,7%
Sorana …: -1,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Naomi Osaka
Ranking
#17
UTR Rating
12,60 Pro
UTR Ranking
#15
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
23/31 = 74,2%
Sorana Cirstea
Ranking
#41
UTR Rating
12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking
#25
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
26/41 = 63,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 24,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,4118 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,8804 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1117,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 20,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 10,7789 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 9,2063 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7561 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 74,1935 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 63,4146 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 71,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 62,2222 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,4839 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 9,0768 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,5122 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,3049 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,9000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,2073 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,9646 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -12,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -6,0900 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0777 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9589 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,3973 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,0173 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 9,4893 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2179 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1581 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 10,7789 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5412 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5271 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,9569 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23848
API ID
15345468
Gamdom ID
589802
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23848,
"api_id": 15345468,
"gamdom_id": 589802,
"player1": "Naomi Osaka",
"player2": "Sorana Cirstea",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-22T08:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.4,
"p2": 3.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.59,
"p2": 2.48
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.58,
"p2": 2.37
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.699,
"prob_p2": 0.301,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.699,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"utr_singles": 12.6,
"utr_ranking": 15,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 74.19354838709677,
"wr_surface_wins": 23,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 41,
"utr_singles": 12.48,
"utr_ranking": 25,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"wr_surface": 63.41463414634146,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
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}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 15,
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},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 25,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": 0.11999999999999922,
"rank_ratio": 2.411764705882353,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 92.0,
"points_diff": 1117,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.8999999999999986,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": -12.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 74.19354838709677,
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"utr_advantage": 0.9569377990430561,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 20,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.8803587226480917,
"rank_advantage": 24,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -3,
"surface_wr_diff": 10.778914240755306,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.207317073170728,
"p1_surface_matches": 31,
"p2_surface_matches": 41,
"serve_quality_diff": 9.076750590086547,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.077720207253886,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.958904109589041,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.9645948072383947,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.512195121951237,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.4838709677419355,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.397312261965713,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.017314535577086,
"surface_rank_synergy": 9.489311172524665,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 71.42857142857143,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.22222222222222,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.3048780487804947,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7560975609756098,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -6.089999999999989,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 10.778914240755306,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.21793548387096762,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15814634146341466,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 9.20634920634921,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
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"feature_importance": {}
}