Naomi Osaka vs Sorana Cirstea
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Naomi Osaka
Naomi …: 69,9% Sorana …: 30,1%
¿Por qué Naomi Osaka?
UTR 12,60 vs 12,48 (+0,12) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Naomi … Sorana … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,40 3,00 71,4%
Gamdom 1,59 2,48 62,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,43 3,32 69,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Naomi …: +1,7% Sorana …: -1,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Naomi Osaka
Ranking #17
UTR Rating 12,60 Pro
UTR Ranking #15
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 23/31 = 74,2%
Sorana Cirstea
Ranking #41
UTR Rating 12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking #25
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 26/41 = 63,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 24,0000
rank_ratio 2,4118
log_rank_ratio 0,8804
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1117,0000
best_rank_diff 20,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 10,7789
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 9,2063
surface_matches_ratio 0,7561
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 74,1935
surface_wr_p2 63,4146
surface_wr_p1_stable 71,4286
surface_wr_p2_stable 62,2222
p1_surface_matches 31,0000
p2_surface_matches 41,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,4839
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 9,0768
first_serve_won_diff 5,5122
second_serve_won_diff 1,3049
bp_saved_diff 1,9000
bp_converted_diff 4,2073
aces_per_match_diff 2,9646
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff -12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -6,0900
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0777
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9589
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 11,3973
serve_consistency_p2 10,0173
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 9,4893
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2179
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1581
elite_surface_amplifier 10,7789
UTR
utr_diff 0,1200
utr_p1 0,5412
utr_p2 0,5271
utr_advantage 0,9569
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23848
API ID 15345468
Gamdom ID 589802
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23848,
    "api_id": 15345468,
    "gamdom_id": 589802,
    "player1": "Naomi Osaka",
    "player2": "Sorana Cirstea",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-22T08:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 3.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.59,
      "p2": 2.48
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.58,
      "p2": 2.37
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.699,
    "prob_p2": 0.301,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.699,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 17,
      "utr_singles": 12.6,
      "utr_ranking": 15,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 74.19354838709677,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 41,
      "utr_singles": 12.48,
      "utr_ranking": 25,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.41463414634146,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.6,
      "ranking": 15,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.48,
      "ranking": 25,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5411764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.5270588235294118,
    "utr_diff": 0.11999999999999922,
    "rank_ratio": 2.411764705882353,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": 1117,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.8999999999999986,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": -12.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 74.19354838709677,
    "surface_wr_p2": 63.41463414634146,
    "utr_advantage": 0.9569377990430561,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 20,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.8803587226480917,
    "rank_advantage": 24,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": 10.778914240755306,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.207317073170728,
    "p1_surface_matches": 31,
    "p2_surface_matches": 41,
    "serve_quality_diff": 9.076750590086547,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.077720207253886,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.958904109589041,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.9645948072383947,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.512195121951237,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.4838709677419355,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.397312261965713,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.017314535577086,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 9.489311172524665,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 71.42857142857143,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.22222222222222,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.3048780487804947,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7560975609756098,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -6.089999999999989,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 10.778914240755306,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.21793548387096762,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15814634146341466,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 9.20634920634921,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}