Nikola Bartunkova vs Belinda Bencic
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 64
22 Ene 2026, 13:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Belinda Bencic
Nikola …: 9,5% Belinda …: 90,5%
¿Por qué Belinda Bencic?
UTR 11,99 vs 12,48 (-0,49) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Nikola … Belinda … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 6,50 1,11 15,4%
Gamdom 9,80 1,08 10,2%
IA Fair Odds 10,56 1,10 9,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Nikola …: -5,1% Belinda …: +5,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Nikola Bartunkova
Ranking #126
UTR Rating 11,99 Pro
UTR Ranking #102
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 5/9 = 55,6%
Belinda Bencic
Ranking #10
UTR Rating 12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking #23
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 100% (10p)
WR Hard 30/41 = 73,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -116,0000
rank_ratio 0,0794
log_rank_ratio -2,5337
rank_tier_advantage -4,0000
points_diff -2930,0000
best_rank_diff -122,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -17,6152
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -12,1368
surface_matches_ratio 0,2195
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 55,5556
surface_wr_p2 73,1707
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,0171
surface_wr_p2_stable 71,1111
p1_surface_matches 9,0000
p2_surface_matches 41,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1111
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4200
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7100
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,8968
first_serve_won_diff -3,3889
second_serve_won_diff 6,5778
bp_saved_diff -0,5556
bp_converted_diff -5,1222
aces_per_match_diff 1,3089
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7130
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 11,1765
serve_consistency_p2 9,1244
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 44,6315
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1716
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1157
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4900
utr_p1 0,4694
utr_p2 0,5271
utr_advantage -4,0049
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23849
API ID 15345467
Gamdom ID 589790
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23849,
    "api_id": 15345467,
    "gamdom_id": 589790,
    "player1": "Nikola Bartunkova",
    "player2": "Belinda Bencic",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-22T09:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 6.5,
      "p2": 1.11
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 9.8,
      "p2": 1.08
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 8.6,
      "p2": 1.1
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.0947,
    "prob_p2": 0.9053,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9053,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 126,
      "utr_singles": 11.99,
      "utr_ranking": 102,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 10,
      "utr_singles": 12.48,
      "utr_ranking": 23,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 73.17073170731707,
      "wr_surface_wins": 30,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 11.99,
      "ranking": 102,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.48,
      "ranking": 23,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5270588235294118,
    "utr_diff": -0.4900000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 0.07936507936507936,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -2930,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.5555555555555429,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.42,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 55.55555555555556,
    "surface_wr_p2": 73.17073170731707,
    "utr_advantage": -4.004903964037599,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -122,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.5336968139574325,
    "rank_advantage": -116,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -17.615176151761517,
    "bp_converted_diff": -5.122222222222227,
    "p1_surface_matches": 9,
    "p2_surface_matches": 41,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.8967750677506814,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7130434782608696,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.3089430894308944,
    "combined_confidence": 0.71,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.3888888888888786,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1111111111111111,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.176515928640272,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.124398456292095,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 44.6315156930171,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.01709401709402,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.11111111111111,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 6.577777777777783,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.21951219512195122,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.17155555555555557,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.11570731707317072,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -12.136752136752138,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}