Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 10:55
23 Ene 2026, 10:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Francisco Cerundolo
Francisco …: 54,3%
Andrey …: 45,8%
¿Por qué Francisco Cerundolo?
UTR 15,35 vs 15,53
(-0,18)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Francisco … | Andrey … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,38 | 1,57 | 42,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,10 | 1,80 | 47,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,84 | 2,19 | 54,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Francisco …: +14,5%
Andrey …: -14,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Francisco Cerundolo
Ranking
#21
UTR Rating
15,35 Pro
UTR Ranking
#43
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
15/25 = 60,0%
Andrey Rublev
Ranking
#15
UTR Rating
15,53 Pro
UTR Ranking
#27
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/39 = 56,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -6,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7143 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,3365 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -565,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -13,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 3,5897 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 2,5728 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6410 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 56,4103 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,6207 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,8140 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 25,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 39,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9167 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -12,0374 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -8,7138 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,9626 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,3010 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 7,4682 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,9846 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -8,4200 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7391 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1879 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7273 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4706 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,2140 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,2906 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,2078 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1060 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0581 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8647 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8859 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,1658 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23871
API ID
15345252
Gamdom ID
589705
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23871,
"api_id": 15345252,
"gamdom_id": 589705,
"player1": "Francisco Cerundolo",
"player2": "Andrey Rublev",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-23T06:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.38,
"p2": 1.5699999999999998
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.8
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.09,
"p2": 1.73
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5425,
"prob_p2": 0.4575,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5425,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 21,
"utr_singles": 15.35,
"utr_ranking": 43,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 25,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 15,
"utr_singles": 15.53,
"utr_ranking": 27,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.41025641025641,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 39,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 43,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 27,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8858823529411763,
"utr_diff": -0.17999999999999972,
"rank_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 72.0,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": -565,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.301025641025646,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": -8.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 56.41025641025641,
"utr_advantage": -1.1658031088082883,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -13,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.3364722366212129,
"rank_advantage": -6,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7272727272727273,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.47058823529411764,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 3.589743589743591,
"bp_converted_diff": 7.468205128205135,
"p1_surface_matches": 25,
"p2_surface_matches": 39,
"serve_quality_diff": -12.03738461538461,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7391304347826086,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1879194630872483,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.9846153846153847,
"combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -8.713846153846148,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.213999286904937,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.290628064254451,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.2078490545376879,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.620689655172406,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.81395348837209,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.9625641025641016,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.6410256410256411,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -8.420000000000002,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10599999999999998,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05810256410256409,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.57284148623362,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}