Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 10:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Francisco Cerundolo
Francisco …: 54,3% Andrey …: 45,8%
¿Por qué Francisco Cerundolo?
UTR 15,35 vs 15,53 (-0,18) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Francisco … Andrey … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,57 42,0%
Gamdom 2,10 1,80 47,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,84 2,19 54,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Francisco …: +14,5% Andrey …: -14,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Francisco Cerundolo
Ranking #21
UTR Rating 15,35 Pro
UTR Ranking #43
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 15/25 = 60,0%
Andrey Rublev
Ranking #15
UTR Rating 15,53 Pro
UTR Ranking #27
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/39 = 56,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -6,0000
rank_ratio 0,7143
log_rank_ratio -0,3365
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -565,0000
best_rank_diff -13,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 3,5897
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 2,5728
surface_matches_ratio 0,6410
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,0000
surface_wr_p2 56,4103
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,6207
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,8140
p1_surface_matches 25,0000
p2_surface_matches 39,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -12,0374
first_serve_won_diff -8,7138
second_serve_won_diff 0,9626
bp_saved_diff -2,3010
bp_converted_diff 7,4682
aces_per_match_diff -3,9846
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 72,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -8,4200
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7391
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1879
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7273
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4706
serve_consistency_p1 10,2140
serve_consistency_p2 6,2906
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,2078
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1060
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0581
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1800
utr_p1 0,8647
utr_p2 0,8859
utr_advantage -1,1658
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23871
API ID 15345252
Gamdom ID 589705
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23871,
    "api_id": 15345252,
    "gamdom_id": 589705,
    "player1": "Francisco Cerundolo",
    "player2": "Andrey Rublev",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-23T06:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.38,
      "p2": 1.5699999999999998
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.09,
      "p2": 1.73
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5425,
    "prob_p2": 0.4575,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5425,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 21,
      "utr_singles": 15.35,
      "utr_ranking": 43,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 15,
      "utr_singles": 15.53,
      "utr_ranking": 27,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.41025641025641,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 39,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.35,
      "ranking": 43,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.53,
      "ranking": 27,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8647058823529411,
    "utr_p2": 0.8858823529411763,
    "utr_diff": -0.17999999999999972,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 72.0,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": -565,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.301025641025646,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": -8.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.41025641025641,
    "utr_advantage": -1.1658031088082883,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -13,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.3364722366212129,
    "rank_advantage": -6,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7272727272727273,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.47058823529411764,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 3.589743589743591,
    "bp_converted_diff": 7.468205128205135,
    "p1_surface_matches": 25,
    "p2_surface_matches": 39,
    "serve_quality_diff": -12.03738461538461,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7391304347826086,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1879194630872483,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.9846153846153847,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -8.713846153846148,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.213999286904937,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.290628064254451,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.2078490545376879,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.620689655172406,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.81395348837209,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.9625641025641016,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6410256410256411,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -8.420000000000002,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10599999999999998,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05810256410256409,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.57284148623362,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}