Elina Svitolina vs Diana Shnaider
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elina Svitolina
Elina …: 70,7% Diana …: 29,3%
¿Por qué Elina Svitolina?
UTR 12,66 vs 12,43 (+0,23) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elina … Diana … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,20 59,9%
Gamdom 1,52 2,70 65,8%
IA Fair Odds 1,42 3,41 70,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Elina …: +13,8% Diana …: -13,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elina Svitolina
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 12,66 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 17/27 = 63,0%
Diana Shnaider
Ranking #22
UTR Rating 12,43 Pro
UTR Ranking #29
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 16/31 = 51,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 10,0000
rank_ratio 1,8333
log_rank_ratio 0,6061
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 903,0000
best_rank_diff 8,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 11,3501
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 9,3687
surface_matches_ratio 0,8710
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,9630
surface_wr_p2 51,6129
surface_wr_p1_stable 61,2903
surface_wr_p2_stable 51,4286
p1_surface_matches 27,0000
p2_surface_matches 31,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2593
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 6,2767
first_serve_won_diff 7,8741
second_serve_won_diff -4,3000
bp_saved_diff -0,1889
bp_converted_diff 0,1259
aces_per_match_diff 1,8148
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 2,5500
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 6,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9645
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8855
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,1667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4375
serve_consistency_p1 5,2789
serve_consistency_p2 8,1839
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 6,8797
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1196
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0261
elite_surface_amplifier 11,3501
UTR
utr_diff 0,2300
utr_p1 0,5482
utr_p2 0,5212
utr_advantage 1,8334
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23872
API ID 15345437
Gamdom ID 589793
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23872,
    "api_id": 15345437,
    "gamdom_id": 589793,
    "player1": "Elina Svitolina",
    "player2": "Diana Shnaider",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-23T08:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.52,
      "p2": 2.7
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.5,
      "p2": 2.58
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7066,
    "prob_p2": 0.2934,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7066,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 12.66,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.96296296296296,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 22,
      "utr_singles": 12.43,
      "utr_ranking": 29,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.61290322580645,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.66,
      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.43,
      "ranking": 29,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5211764705882352,
    "utr_diff": 0.23000000000000043,
    "rank_ratio": 1.8333333333333333,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 903,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.18888888888889,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 6,
    "momentum_diff": 19.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.96296296296296,
    "surface_wr_p2": 51.61290322580645,
    "utr_advantage": 1.8333997608609043,
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    "best_rank_diff": 8,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.6061358035703155,
    "rank_advantage": 10,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.16666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 11.350059737156514,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.12592592592591956,
    "p1_surface_matches": 27,
    "p2_surface_matches": 31,
    "serve_quality_diff": 6.276666666666678,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9645390070921985,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8854961832061069,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.8148148148148149,
    "combined_confidence": 0.95,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 7.87407407407408,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.25925925925925924,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.278865905793624,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.183865661450845,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 6.879677579352447,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.29032258064516,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.42857142857142,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -4.299999999999997,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8709677419354839,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 2.549999999999983,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 11.350059737156514,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11962962962962964,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.02612903225806451,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 9.36866359447005,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}