Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 07:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos …: 88,7% Corentin …: 11,3%
¿Por qué Carlos Alcaraz?
UTR 16,32 vs 15,53 (+0,79) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Carlos … Corentin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,02 17,00 98,0%
Gamdom 1,02 21,00 98,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,13 8,87 88,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Carlos …: -5,6% Corentin …: +5,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 37/43 = 86,0%
Corentin Moutet
Ranking #37
UTR Rating 15,53 Pro
UTR Ranking #26
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/38 = 57,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 36,0000
rank_ratio 37,0000
log_rank_ratio 3,6109
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 10667,0000
best_rank_diff 30,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 28,1518
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 25,8359
surface_matches_ratio 1,1316
surface_tournaments_won_diff 4,0000
surface_wr_p1 86,0465
surface_wr_p2 57,8947
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,9787
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,1429
p1_surface_matches 43,0000
p2_surface_matches 38,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7209
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 11,6671
first_serve_won_diff 10,0181
second_serve_won_diff 6,4122
bp_saved_diff -0,9846
bp_converted_diff 1,7866
aces_per_match_diff 2,3672
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 11,4800
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,4203
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9679
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6154
serve_consistency_p1 5,3987
serve_consistency_p2 5,8090
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 101,6537
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3245
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1149
elite_surface_amplifier 56,3035
UTR
utr_diff 0,7900
utr_p1 0,9788
utr_p2 0,8859
utr_advantage 4,9608
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23874
API ID 15345259
Gamdom ID 589704
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23874,
    "api_id": 15345259,
    "gamdom_id": 589704,
    "player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
    "player2": "Corentin Moutet",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-23T03:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.02,
      "p2": 17.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.02,
      "p2": 21.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.02,
      "p2": 17.54
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8872,
    "prob_p2": 0.1128,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8872,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 16.32,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
      "wr_surface_wins": 37,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 37,
      "utr_singles": 15.53,
      "utr_ranking": 26,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.89473684210527,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 38,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 16.32,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.53,
      "ranking": 26,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9788235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.8858823529411763,
    "utr_diff": 0.7900000000000009,
    "rank_ratio": 37.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": 10667,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.9845777233782229,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 8.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 86.04651162790698,
    "surface_wr_p2": 57.89473684210527,
    "utr_advantage": 4.9607535321821095,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 30,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 3.6109179126442243,
    "rank_advantage": 36,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6153846153846154,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 28.151774785801713,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.7865973072215482,
    "p1_surface_matches": 43,
    "p2_surface_matches": 38,
    "serve_quality_diff": 11.667093023255823,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.4203389830508475,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.967948717948718,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.367197062423501,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 10.01805385556915,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7209302325581395,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.398699168236941,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.8089830062902585,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 101.65374784677743,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.97872340425532,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.14285714285714,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 6.412239902080792,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.131578947368421,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 11.480000000000018,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 56.303549571603426,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3244651162790698,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.11494736842105269,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 25.83586626139818,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 4
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}