Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 07:05
23 Ene 2026, 07:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos …: 88,7%
Corentin …: 11,3%
¿Por qué Carlos Alcaraz?
UTR 16,32 vs 15,53
(+0,79)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Carlos … | Corentin … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,02 | 17,00 | 98,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,02 | 21,00 | 98,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,13 | 8,87 | 88,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Carlos …: -5,6%
Corentin …: +5,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
37/43 = 86,0%
Corentin Moutet
Ranking
#37
UTR Rating
15,53 Pro
UTR Ranking
#26
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/38 = 57,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 36,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 37,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 3,6109 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 10667,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 30,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 28,1518 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 25,8359 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,1316 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 4,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 86,0465 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 57,8947 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,9787 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 57,1429 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 38,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7209 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 11,6671 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 10,0181 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 6,4122 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,9846 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 1,7866 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,3672 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 11,4800 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,4203 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9679 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6154 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,3987 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,8090 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 101,6537 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3245 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1149 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 56,3035 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,7900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8859 | |
| utr_advantage | 4,9608 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23874
API ID
15345259
Gamdom ID
589704
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23874,
"api_id": 15345259,
"gamdom_id": 589704,
"player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
"player2": "Corentin Moutet",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-23T03:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.02,
"p2": 17.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.02,
"p2": 21.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.02,
"p2": 17.54
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8872,
"prob_p2": 0.1128,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8872,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 16.32,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
"wr_surface_wins": 37,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 37,
"utr_singles": 15.53,
"utr_ranking": 26,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.89473684210527,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 38,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 26,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8858823529411763,
"utr_diff": 0.7900000000000009,
"rank_ratio": 37.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 72.0,
"points_diff": 10667,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.9845777233782229,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 8.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 86.04651162790698,
"surface_wr_p2": 57.89473684210527,
"utr_advantage": 4.9607535321821095,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 30,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 3.6109179126442243,
"rank_advantage": 36,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6153846153846154,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 28.151774785801713,
"bp_converted_diff": 1.7865973072215482,
"p1_surface_matches": 43,
"p2_surface_matches": 38,
"serve_quality_diff": 11.667093023255823,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.4203389830508475,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.967948717948718,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.367197062423501,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 10.01805385556915,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7209302325581395,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.398699168236941,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.8089830062902585,
"surface_rank_synergy": 101.65374784677743,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.97872340425532,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.14285714285714,
"second_serve_won_diff": 6.412239902080792,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.131578947368421,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 11.480000000000018,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 56.303549571603426,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3244651162790698,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.11494736842105269,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 25.83586626139818,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 4
},
"feature_importance": {}
}