Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 06:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tommy Paul
Tommy …: 55,2% Alejandro …: 44,8%
¿Por qué Tommy Paul?
UTR 15,63 vs 15,62 (+0,01) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Tommy … Alejandro … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,44 2,75 69,4%
Gamdom 1,48 2,80 67,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,81 2,23 55,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Tommy …: -10,5% Alejandro …: +10,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tommy Paul
Ranking #20
UTR Rating 15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #15
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 16/23 = 69,6%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Ranking #14
UTR Rating 15,62 Pro
UTR Ranking #16
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 29/46 = 63,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -6,0000
rank_ratio 0,7000
log_rank_ratio -0,3567
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -585,0000
best_rank_diff 6,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 6,5217
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,1222
surface_matches_ratio 0,5000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 69,5652
surface_wr_p2 63,0435
surface_wr_p1_stable 66,6667
surface_wr_p2_stable 62,0000
p1_surface_matches 23,0000
p2_surface_matches 46,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3913
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 11,2296
first_serve_won_diff 5,8130
second_serve_won_diff 1,6565
bp_saved_diff -3,3174
bp_converted_diff -1,1435
aces_per_match_diff 3,9130
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -4,9000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1093
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9104
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4167
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6538
serve_consistency_p1 8,8969
serve_consistency_p2 2,2330
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,3261
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2017
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1244
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0100
utr_p1 0,8976
utr_p2 0,8965
utr_advantage 0,0640
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23877
API ID 15345260
Gamdom ID 589712
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23877,
    "api_id": 15345260,
    "gamdom_id": 589712,
    "player1": "Tommy Paul",
    "player2": "Alejandro Davidovich Fokina",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-23T02:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.48,
      "p2": 2.8
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.47,
      "p2": 2.65
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5517,
    "prob_p2": 0.4483,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5517,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 20,
      "utr_singles": 15.63,
      "utr_ranking": 15,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 14,
      "utr_singles": 15.62,
      "utr_ranking": 16,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.04347826086957,
      "wr_surface_wins": 29,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.63,
      "ranking": 15,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.62,
      "ranking": 16,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8976470588235295,
    "utr_p2": 0.896470588235294,
    "utr_diff": 0.010000000000001563,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": -585,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.3173913043478365,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 69.56521739130434,
    "surface_wr_p2": 63.04347826086957,
    "utr_advantage": 0.06400000000001001,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 6,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.35667494393873245,
    "rank_advantage": -6,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4166666666666667,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6538461538461539,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 6.521739130434774,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.1434782608695642,
    "p1_surface_matches": 23,
    "p2_surface_matches": 46,
    "serve_quality_diff": 11.229565217391304,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1093247588424437,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9104477611940298,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.913043478260869,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.81304347826088,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.391304347826087,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.896876449253785,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 2.232955675013765,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.3261409387308607,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.656521739130433,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -4.899999999999977,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.20165217391304346,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.12443478260869567,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.122222222222214,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}