Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 06:50
23 Ene 2026, 06:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tommy Paul
Tommy …: 55,2%
Alejandro …: 44,8%
¿Por qué Tommy Paul?
UTR 15,63 vs 15,62
(+0,01)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Tommy … | Alejandro … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,44 | 2,75 | 69,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,48 | 2,80 | 67,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,81 | 2,23 | 55,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Tommy …: -10,5%
Alejandro …: +10,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tommy Paul
Ranking
#20
UTR Rating
15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking
#15
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
16/23 = 69,6%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Ranking
#14
UTR Rating
15,62 Pro
UTR Ranking
#16
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
29/46 = 63,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -6,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,3567 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -585,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 6,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 6,5217 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,1222 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 69,5652 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 63,0435 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 62,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 46,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3913 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 11,2296 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,8130 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,6565 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,3174 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -1,1435 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 3,9130 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -4,9000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1093 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9104 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4167 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6538 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,8969 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 2,2330 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -2,3261 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2017 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1244 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8976 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8965 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0640 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23877
API ID
15345260
Gamdom ID
589712
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23877,
"api_id": 15345260,
"gamdom_id": 589712,
"player1": "Tommy Paul",
"player2": "Alejandro Davidovich Fokina",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-23T02:50:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.44,
"p2": 2.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.48,
"p2": 2.8
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.47,
"p2": 2.65
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5517,
"prob_p2": 0.4483,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5517,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 20,
"utr_singles": 15.63,
"utr_ranking": 15,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 14,
"utr_singles": 15.62,
"utr_ranking": 16,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 63.04347826086957,
"wr_surface_wins": 29,
"wr_surface_total": 46,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 15,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 16,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.896470588235294,
"utr_diff": 0.010000000000001563,
"rank_ratio": 0.7,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": -585,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.3173913043478365,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 69.56521739130434,
"surface_wr_p2": 63.04347826086957,
"utr_advantage": 0.06400000000001001,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 6,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.35667494393873245,
"rank_advantage": -6,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4166666666666667,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6538461538461539,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 6.521739130434774,
"bp_converted_diff": -1.1434782608695642,
"p1_surface_matches": 23,
"p2_surface_matches": 46,
"serve_quality_diff": 11.229565217391304,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1093247588424437,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9104477611940298,
"aces_per_match_diff": 3.913043478260869,
"combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.81304347826088,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.391304347826087,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.896876449253785,
"serve_consistency_p2": 2.232955675013765,
"surface_rank_synergy": -2.3261409387308607,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 66.66666666666666,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.656521739130433,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -4.899999999999977,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.20165217391304346,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.12443478260869567,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.122222222222214,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}