Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Potapova
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 88,4% Anastasia …: 11,6%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,10 (+0,87) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aryna … Anastasia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,06 10,00 94,3%
Gamdom 1,04 15,00 96,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,13 8,66 88,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Aryna …: -2,0% Anastasia …: +2,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 36/42 = 85,7%
Anastasia Potapova
Ranking #55
UTR Rating 12,10 Pro
UTR Ranking #78
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 17/29 = 58,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 54,0000
rank_ratio 55,0000
log_rank_ratio 4,0073
rank_tier_advantage 3,0000
points_diff 9884,0000
best_rank_diff 20,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 27,0936
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 24,6157
surface_matches_ratio 1,4483
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 85,7143
surface_wr_p2 58,6207
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,6087
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,5758
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7143
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,9340
first_serve_won_diff 3,0200
second_serve_won_diff 1,7744
bp_saved_diff 11,8085
bp_converted_diff 8,5620
aces_per_match_diff 1,4458
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff 28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 4,4600
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1536
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6639
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 4,7421
serve_consistency_p2 8,8946
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 108,5731
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3031
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1402
elite_surface_amplifier 81,2808
UTR
utr_diff 0,8700
utr_p1 0,5847
utr_p2 0,4824
utr_advantage 6,9406
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23878
API ID 15345435
Gamdom ID 589762
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23878,
    "api_id": 15345435,
    "gamdom_id": 589762,
    "player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
    "player2": "Anastasia Potapova",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-23T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.06,
      "p2": 10.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.04,
      "p2": 15.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.04,
      "p2": 11.94
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8845,
    "prob_p2": 0.1155,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8845,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 12.97,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 55,
      "utr_singles": 12.1,
      "utr_ranking": 78,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.97,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.1,
      "ranking": 78,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5847058823529413,
    "utr_p2": 0.48235294117647054,
    "utr_diff": 0.870000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 55.0,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": 9884,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 11.808456486042687,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 27.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2": 58.620689655172406,
    "utr_advantage": 6.940566414040694,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 20,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 4.007333185232471,
    "rank_advantage": 54,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 27.093596059113302,
    "bp_converted_diff": 8.561986863710992,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.9339573070607585,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6638655462184874,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.4458128078817731,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.020032840722507,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.742105581846225,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.894604427736315,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 108.57306659496844,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.57575757575758,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.7743842364531943,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4482758620689655,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 4.459999999999994,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 81.2807881773399,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.30314285714285705,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.14020689655172414,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 24.615722441809393,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}