Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Potapova
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 04:30
23 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 88,4%
Anastasia …: 11,6%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,10
(+0,87)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aryna … | Anastasia … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,06 | 10,00 | 94,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,04 | 15,00 | 96,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,13 | 8,66 | 88,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aryna …: -2,0%
Anastasia …: +2,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
36/42 = 85,7%
Anastasia Potapova
Ranking
#55
UTR Rating
12,10 Pro
UTR Ranking
#78
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
17/29 = 58,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 54,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 55,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 4,0073 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| points_diff | 9884,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 20,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 27,0936 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 24,6157 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4483 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 85,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 58,6207 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,6087 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 57,5758 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7143 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 4,9340 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,0200 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,7744 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 11,8085 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 8,5620 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,4458 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 28,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 4,4600 | |
| current_streak_diff | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1536 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6639 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,7421 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,8946 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 108,5731 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3031 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1402 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 81,2808 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,8700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5847 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4824 | |
| utr_advantage | 6,9406 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23878
API ID
15345435
Gamdom ID
589762
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23878,
"api_id": 15345435,
"gamdom_id": 589762,
"player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
"player2": "Anastasia Potapova",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-23T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.06,
"p2": 10.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.04,
"p2": 15.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.04,
"p2": 11.94
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8845,
"prob_p2": 0.1155,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8845,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 12.97,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
"wr_surface_wins": 36,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 55,
"utr_singles": 12.1,
"utr_ranking": 78,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.97,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.1,
"ranking": 78,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5847058823529413,
"utr_p2": 0.48235294117647054,
"utr_diff": 0.870000000000001,
"rank_ratio": 55.0,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 72.0,
"points_diff": 9884,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 11.808456486042687,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 27.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
"surface_wr_p2": 58.620689655172406,
"utr_advantage": 6.940566414040694,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 20,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 4.007333185232471,
"rank_advantage": 54,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 27.093596059113302,
"bp_converted_diff": 8.561986863710992,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 29,
"serve_quality_diff": 4.9339573070607585,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6638655462184874,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.4458128078817731,
"combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 3,
"rank_tier_advantage": 3,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.020032840722507,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.742105581846225,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.894604427736315,
"surface_rank_synergy": 108.57306659496844,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.57575757575758,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.7743842364531943,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4482758620689655,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 4.459999999999994,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 81.2807881773399,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.30314285714285705,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.14020689655172414,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 24.615722441809393,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}