Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaur
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex de Minaur
Frances …: 23,0% Alex …: 77,1%
¿Por qué Alex de Minaur?
UTR 15,18 vs 15,89 (-0,71) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Frances … Alex … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,75 1,28 26,7%
Gamdom 5,40 1,18 18,5%
IA Fair Odds 4,36 1,30 23,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Frances …: -2,5% Alex …: +2,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Frances Tiafoe
Ranking #34
UTR Rating 15,18 Pro
UTR Ranking #62
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 14/26 = 53,8%
Alex de Minaur
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 39/55 = 70,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -28,0000
rank_ratio 0,1765
log_rank_ratio -1,7346
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -2580,0000
best_rank_diff -4,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -17,0629
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -15,0810
surface_matches_ratio 0,4727
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,8462
surface_wr_p2 70,9091
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 69,4915
p1_surface_matches 26,0000
p2_surface_matches 55,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0769
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 7,4482
first_serve_won_diff 0,9722
second_serve_won_diff -7,8698
bp_saved_diff 0,1010
bp_converted_diff -0,0698
aces_per_match_diff 4,6615
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 78,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -5,5500
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,4898
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8100
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5385
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5882
serve_consistency_p1 7,0768
serve_consistency_p2 8,1286
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 29,5974
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0665
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1811
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,7100
utr_p1 0,8447
utr_p2 0,9282
utr_advantage -4,5703
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23889
API ID 15345263
Gamdom ID 589723
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23889,
    "api_id": 15345263,
    "gamdom_id": 589723,
    "player1": "Frances Tiafoe",
    "player2": "Alex de Minaur",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-23T08:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.75,
      "p2": 1.28
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 5.4,
      "p2": 1.18
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 4.94,
      "p2": 1.17
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2295,
    "prob_p2": 0.7705,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7705,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 34,
      "utr_singles": 15.18,
      "utr_ranking": 62,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 15.89,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
      "wr_surface_wins": 39,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 15.18,
      "ranking": 62,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
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      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.9282352941176472,
    "utr_diff": -0.7100000000000009,
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    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -2580,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.10097902097903955,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.84615384615385,
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    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.7346010553881064,
    "rank_advantage": -28,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5384615384615384,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
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    "surface_wr_diff": -17.06293706293706,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.06979020979020589,
    "p1_surface_matches": 26,
    "p2_surface_matches": 55,
    "serve_quality_diff": 7.44822377622377,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.489795918367347,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.81,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.661538461538462,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.9721678321678127,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.07692307692307693,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.076805726333961,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.128600022139967,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 29.59738863739146,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
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    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.869790209790203,
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    "weighted_momentum_diff": -5.549999999999983,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06646153846153846,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18109090909090908,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -15.080979284369116,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}