Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaur
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 12:10
23 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex de Minaur
Frances …: 23,0%
Alex …: 77,1%
¿Por qué Alex de Minaur?
UTR 15,18 vs 15,89
(-0,71)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Frances … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,75 | 1,28 | 26,7% |
| Gamdom | 5,40 | 1,18 | 18,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,36 | 1,30 | 23,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Frances …: -2,5%
Alex …: +2,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Frances Tiafoe
Ranking
#34
UTR Rating
15,18 Pro
UTR Ranking
#62
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
14/26 = 53,8%
Alex de Minaur
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
39/55 = 70,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -28,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1765 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,7346 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2580,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -4,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -17,0629 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -15,0810 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,4727 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 53,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 70,9091 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 69,4915 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0769 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 7,4482 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,9722 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -7,8698 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,1010 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,0698 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,6615 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -5,5500 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,4898 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8100 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5385 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5882 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,0768 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,1286 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 29,5974 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0665 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1811 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,7100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8447 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9282 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,5703 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23889
API ID
15345263
Gamdom ID
589723
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23889,
"api_id": 15345263,
"gamdom_id": 589723,
"player1": "Frances Tiafoe",
"player2": "Alex de Minaur",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-23T08:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.75,
"p2": 1.28
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 5.4,
"p2": 1.18
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 4.94,
"p2": 1.17
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2295,
"prob_p2": 0.7705,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7705,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 34,
"utr_singles": 15.18,
"utr_ranking": 62,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
"wr_surface_wins": 14,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 15.89,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
"wr_surface_wins": 39,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 62,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": -0.7100000000000009,
"rank_ratio": 0.17647058823529413,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -2580,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0.10097902097903955,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -20.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 53.84615384615385,
"surface_wr_p2": 70.9090909090909,
"utr_advantage": -4.570325072417128,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -4,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.7346010553881064,
"rank_advantage": -28,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5384615384615384,
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"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -17.06293706293706,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.06979020979020589,
"p1_surface_matches": 26,
"p2_surface_matches": 55,
"serve_quality_diff": 7.44822377622377,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.489795918367347,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.81,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.661538461538462,
"combined_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.9721678321678127,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.07692307692307693,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.076805726333961,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.128600022139967,
"surface_rank_synergy": 29.59738863739146,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.49152542372882,
"second_serve_won_diff": -7.869790209790203,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.4727272727272727,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -5.549999999999983,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06646153846153846,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18109090909090908,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -15.080979284369116,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}