Iva Jovic vs Jasmine Paolini
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 10:05
23 Ene 2026, 10:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jasmine Paolini
Iva …: 37,7%
Jasmine …: 62,3%
¿Por qué Jasmine Paolini?
UTR 12,41 vs 12,59
(-0,18)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Iva … | Jasmine … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,20 | 1,67 | 45,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,23 | 1,72 | 44,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,65 | 1,61 | 37,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Iva …: -5,4%
Jasmine …: +5,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Iva Jovic
Ranking
#27
UTR Rating
12,41 Pro
UTR Ranking
#39
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
12/19 = 63,2%
Jasmine Paolini
Ranking
#8
UTR Rating
12,59 Pro
UTR Ranking
#17
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
27/41 = 65,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -19,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2963 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,2164 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2596,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -26,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -2,6958 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -2,9195 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,4634 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 63,1579 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 65,8537 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,8696 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 64,4444 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 19,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2632 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,6333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8167 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,7297 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,0171 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,3268 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 5,0878 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,2220 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,6701 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -6,1600 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 9,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 7,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7778 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7569 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,6581 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 13,7351 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 3,2791 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1506 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1395 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5188 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5400 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,4400 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23890
API ID
15345444
Gamdom ID
589796
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23890,
"api_id": 15345444,
"gamdom_id": 589796,
"player1": "Iva Jovic",
"player2": "Jasmine Paolini",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-23T06:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.2,
"p2": 1.67
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.23,
"p2": 1.72
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.16,
"p2": 1.69
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3771,
"prob_p2": 0.6229,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6229,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 27,
"utr_singles": 12.41,
"utr_ranking": 39,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 63.1578947368421,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 19,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 8,
"utr_singles": 12.59,
"utr_ranking": 17,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.85365853658537,
"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.41,
"ranking": 39,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.59,
"ranking": 17,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.54,
"utr_diff": -0.17999999999999972,
"rank_ratio": 0.2962962962962963,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -2596,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 5.087804878048779,
"h2h_wins_diff": -2,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 9,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -9.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.6333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 63.1578947368421,
"surface_wr_p2": 65.85365853658537,
"utr_advantage": -1.4399999999999977,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -26,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.2163953243244932,
"rank_advantage": -19,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 7,
"surface_wr_diff": -2.6957637997432684,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.221951219512192,
"p1_surface_matches": 19,
"p2_surface_matches": 41,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.7296919127086028,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7777777777777778,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7569444444444444,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.6700898587933248,
"combined_confidence": 0.8166666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.017073170731706,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2631578947368421,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.658107433716578,
"serve_consistency_p2": 13.735116756068228,
"surface_rank_synergy": 3.279114481490941,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.86956521739131,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.44444444444444,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.326829268292677,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.4634146341463415,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -6.159999999999997,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.15057894736842103,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.13953658536585367,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.9194847020933903,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}