Iva Jovic vs Jasmine Paolini
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
23 Ene 2026, 10:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jasmine Paolini
Iva …: 37,7% Jasmine …: 62,3%
¿Por qué Jasmine Paolini?
UTR 12,41 vs 12,59 (-0,18) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Iva … Jasmine … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,20 1,67 45,5%
Gamdom 2,23 1,72 44,8%
IA Fair Odds 2,65 1,61 37,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Iva …: -5,4% Jasmine …: +5,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Iva Jovic
Ranking #27
UTR Rating 12,41 Pro
UTR Ranking #39
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 12/19 = 63,2%
Jasmine Paolini
Ranking #8
UTR Rating 12,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #17
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 27/41 = 65,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -19,0000
rank_ratio 0,2963
log_rank_ratio -1,2164
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -2596,0000
best_rank_diff -26,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -2,6958
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,9195
surface_matches_ratio 0,4634
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 63,1579
surface_wr_p2 65,8537
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,8696
surface_wr_p2_stable 64,4444
p1_surface_matches 19,0000
p2_surface_matches 41,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2632
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,7297
first_serve_won_diff -0,0171
second_serve_won_diff 1,3268
bp_saved_diff 5,0878
bp_converted_diff 5,2220
aces_per_match_diff 0,6701
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -6,1600
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 9,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 7,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -2,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7778
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7569
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7000
serve_consistency_p1 8,6581
serve_consistency_p2 13,7351
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 3,2791
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1506
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1395
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1800
utr_p1 0,5188
utr_p2 0,5400
utr_advantage -1,4400
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23890
API ID 15345444
Gamdom ID 589796
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23890,
    "api_id": 15345444,
    "gamdom_id": 589796,
    "player1": "Iva Jovic",
    "player2": "Jasmine Paolini",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-23T06:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.2,
      "p2": 1.67
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.23,
      "p2": 1.72
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.16,
      "p2": 1.69
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3771,
    "prob_p2": 0.6229,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6229,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 27,
      "utr_singles": 12.41,
      "utr_ranking": 39,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.1578947368421,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 19,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 8,
      "utr_singles": 12.59,
      "utr_ranking": 17,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.85365853658537,
      "wr_surface_wins": 27,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.41,
      "ranking": 39,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.59,
      "ranking": 17,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5188235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.54,
    "utr_diff": -0.17999999999999972,
    "rank_ratio": 0.2962962962962963,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -2596,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 5.087804878048779,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -2,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 9,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -9.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 63.1578947368421,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.85365853658537,
    "utr_advantage": -1.4399999999999977,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -26,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.2163953243244932,
    "rank_advantage": -19,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 7,
    "surface_wr_diff": -2.6957637997432684,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.221951219512192,
    "p1_surface_matches": 19,
    "p2_surface_matches": 41,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.7296919127086028,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7777777777777778,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7569444444444444,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.6700898587933248,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8166666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.017073170731706,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2631578947368421,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.658107433716578,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 13.735116756068228,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 3.279114481490941,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.86956521739131,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.44444444444444,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.326829268292677,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.4634146341463415,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -6.159999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.15057894736842103,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.13953658536585367,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.9194847020933903,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}