Botic Van de Zandschulp vs Novak Djokovic
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
24 Ene 2026, 12:10
24 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Novak Djokovic
Botic …: 6,1%
Novak …: 93,9%
¿Por qué Novak Djokovic?
UTR 15,09 vs 16,05
(-0,96)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Botic … | Novak … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 5,00 | 1,17 | 20,0% |
| Gamdom | 11,00 | 1,07 | 9,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 16,50 | 1,06 | 6,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Botic …: -12,9%
Novak …: +12,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Botic Van de Zandschulp
Ranking
#75
UTR Rating
15,09 Pro
UTR Ranking
#81
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
16/33 = 48,5%
Novak Djokovic
Ranking
#4
UTR Rating
16,05 Pro
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
21/28 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -71,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0533 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,9312 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -3,0000 | |
| points_diff | -4021,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -21,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -26,5152 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -22,4521 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,1786 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,4848 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 75,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,6486 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 71,8750 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0303 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -9,6395 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,8182 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -3,5818 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,6545 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -4,0545 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,8279 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -22,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -4,6500 | |
| current_streak_diff | -3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5904 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1065 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3077 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,7480 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,6914 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 77,7210 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0558 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1790 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,9600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8341 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9471 | |
| utr_advantage | -6,1657 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23896
API ID
15345264
Gamdom ID
589744
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23896,
"api_id": 15345264,
"gamdom_id": 589744,
"player1": "Botic Van de Zandschulp",
"player2": "Novak Djokovic",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-24T08:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 5.0,
"p2": 1.17
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 11.0,
"p2": 1.07
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 8.71,
"p2": 1.07
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.0606,
"prob_p2": 0.9394,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.9394,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 75,
"utr_singles": 15.09,
"utr_ranking": 81,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.484848484848484,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 4,
"utr_singles": 16.05,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 75.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 81,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 3,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": -0.9600000000000009,
"rank_ratio": 0.05333333333333334,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -4021,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.6545454545454419,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -22.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.484848484848484,
"surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
"utr_advantage": -6.165703275529871,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -21,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.9311937524164198,
"rank_advantage": -71,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3076923076923077,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -26.515151515151516,
"bp_converted_diff": -4.054545454545455,
"p1_surface_matches": 33,
"p2_surface_matches": 28,
"serve_quality_diff": -9.639480519480529,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5903614457831325,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.106508875739645,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.827922077922077,
"combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": -3,
"rank_tier_advantage": -3,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.818181818181827,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.030303030303030304,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.747992307877869,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.691383846338555,
"surface_rank_synergy": 77.7210464655869,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.64864864864865,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.875,
"second_serve_won_diff": -3.5818181818181856,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.1785714285714286,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -4.6499999999999915,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.055848484848484814,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17900000000000005,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -22.452139639639636,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}