Anna Kalinskaya vs Iga Swiatek
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
24 Ene 2026, 12:10
24 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Anna …: 13,5%
Iga …: 86,5%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 12,44 vs 12,90
(-0,46)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Anna … | Iga … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 5,50 | 1,14 | 18,2% |
| Gamdom | 4,40 | 1,24 | 22,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 7,40 | 1,16 | 13,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Anna …: -3,6%
Iga …: +3,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Anna Kalinskaya
Ranking
#33
UTR Rating
12,44 Pro
UTR Ranking
#28
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
16/29 = 55,2%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking
#2
UTR Rating
12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -31,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0606 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,8034 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -6817,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -10,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -23,6737 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -21,8696 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5577 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 55,1724 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 78,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 54,5455 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 76,7857 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 52,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1034 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -4,0015 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,7442 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,7577 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,0481 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -8,7481 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,5511 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 6,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 2,9700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6489 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0586 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,2540 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,2516 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 66,3660 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0827 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2575 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5224 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5765 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,6306 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23897
API ID
15345455
Gamdom ID
589780
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23897,
"api_id": 15345455,
"gamdom_id": 589780,
"player1": "Anna Kalinskaya",
"player2": "Iga Swiatek",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-24T08:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 5.5,
"p2": 1.1400000000000001
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 4.4,
"p2": 1.24
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 4.2,
"p2": 1.23
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1352,
"prob_p2": 0.8648,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8648,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 33,
"utr_singles": 12.44,
"utr_ranking": 28,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 2,
"utr_singles": 12.9,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
"wr_surface_wins": 41,
"wr_surface_total": 52,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
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}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 28,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 3,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": -0.46000000000000085,
"rank_ratio": 0.06060606060606061,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 72.0,
"points_diff": -6817,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.04807692307692,
"h2h_wins_diff": -2,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 5.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
"surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
"utr_advantage": -3.6306235201262895,
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"best_rank_diff": -10,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.803360380906535,
"rank_advantage": -31,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8,
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"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -23.673740053050395,
"bp_converted_diff": -8.748076923076916,
"p1_surface_matches": 29,
"p2_surface_matches": 52,
"serve_quality_diff": -4.0015450928381995,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.648936170212766,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.5510610079575597,
"combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.744230769230768,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.254029102089866,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.251576629688456,
"surface_rank_synergy": 66.36602493260165,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.7576923076923023,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5576923076923077,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 2.969999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0827241379310345,
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"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -21.869588744588757,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}