Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
24 Ene 2026, 03:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo …: 61,8% Tomas …: 38,2%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Musetti?
UTR 15,77 vs 15,26 (+0,51) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Tomas … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,57 2,38 63,7%
Gamdom 1,53 2,65 65,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,62 2,62 61,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: +1,6% Tomas …: -1,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/37 = 59,5%
Tomas Machac
Ranking #24
UTR Rating 15,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #56
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 17/29 = 58,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 19,0000
rank_ratio 4,8000
log_rank_ratio 1,5686
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 2495,0000
best_rank_diff 15,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,8388
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,9448
surface_matches_ratio 1,2759
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 59,4595
surface_wr_p2 58,6207
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,5366
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,5758
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1892
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,9090
first_serve_won_diff -0,2208
second_serve_won_diff -0,7858
bp_saved_diff -1,2031
bp_converted_diff -8,9297
aces_per_match_diff -1,2815
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 7,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0545
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0582
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6429
serve_consistency_p1 4,9493
serve_consistency_p2 3,4775
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,3157
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0756
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1052
elite_surface_amplifier 1,6775
UTR
utr_diff 0,5100
utr_p1 0,9141
utr_p2 0,8541
utr_advantage 3,2871
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23910
API ID 15345275
Gamdom ID 589738
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23910,
    "api_id": 15345275,
    "gamdom_id": 589738,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
    "player2": "Tomas Machac",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-23T23:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5699999999999998,
      "p2": 2.38
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.53,
      "p2": 2.65
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.51,
      "p2": 2.54
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6184,
    "prob_p2": 0.3816,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6184,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 15.77,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 24,
      "utr_singles": 15.26,
      "utr_ranking": 56,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.77,
      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.26,
      "ranking": 56,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9141176470588235,
    "utr_p2": 0.8541176470588235,
    "utr_diff": 0.5099999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 4.8,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 2495,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.2030754892823907,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 7,
    "momentum_diff": -19.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
    "surface_wr_p2": 58.620689655172406,
    "utr_advantage": 3.2871414759909747,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 15,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.5686159179138452,
    "rank_advantage": 19,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0.8387698042870539,
    "bp_converted_diff": -8.92972972972973,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.9090493942218245,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0582010582010581,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.2814538676607645,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.22078285181734714,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.949321258550037,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 3.4774671332022997,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.3157076664701535,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.57575757575758,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.7858341099720363,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.2758620689655173,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 1.6775396085741079,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07559459459459461,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1052068965517241,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.9448139935944746,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}