Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
24 Ene 2026, 03:30
24 Ene 2026, 03:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo …: 61,8%
Tomas …: 38,2%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Musetti?
UTR 15,77 vs 15,26
(+0,51)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Tomas … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,57 | 2,38 | 63,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,53 | 2,65 | 65,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,62 | 2,62 | 61,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: +1,6%
Tomas …: -1,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#9
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/37 = 59,5%
Tomas Machac
Ranking
#24
UTR Rating
15,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#56
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
17/29 = 58,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 19,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 4,8000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,5686 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 2495,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 15,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,8388 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,9448 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,2759 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 59,4595 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 58,6207 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,5366 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 57,5758 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1892 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,9090 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,2208 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,7858 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,2031 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -8,9297 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,2815 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 7,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0545 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0582 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6429 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,9493 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 3,4775 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 1,3157 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0756 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1052 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 1,6775 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9141 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8541 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,2871 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23910
API ID
15345275
Gamdom ID
589738
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23910,
"api_id": 15345275,
"gamdom_id": 589738,
"player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
"player2": "Tomas Machac",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-23T23:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5699999999999998,
"p2": 2.38
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.53,
"p2": 2.65
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.51,
"p2": 2.54
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6184,
"prob_p2": 0.3816,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6184,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 15.77,
"utr_ranking": 9,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 24,
"utr_singles": 15.26,
"utr_ranking": 56,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 9,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 56,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8541176470588235,
"utr_diff": 0.5099999999999998,
"rank_ratio": 4.8,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 2495,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.2030754892823907,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 7,
"momentum_diff": -19.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
"surface_wr_p2": 58.620689655172406,
"utr_advantage": 3.2871414759909747,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 15,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.5686159179138452,
"rank_advantage": 19,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -3,
"surface_wr_diff": 0.8387698042870539,
"bp_converted_diff": -8.92972972972973,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 29,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.9090493942218245,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0582010582010581,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.2814538676607645,
"combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": -3,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.22078285181734714,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.949321258550037,
"serve_consistency_p2": 3.4774671332022997,
"surface_rank_synergy": 1.3157076664701535,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.57575757575758,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.7858341099720363,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.2758620689655173,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 1.6775396085741079,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07559459459459461,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1052068965517241,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.9448139935944746,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}