Stan Wawrinka vs Taylor Fritz
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
24 Ene 2026, 10:35
24 Ene 2026, 10:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Taylor Fritz
Stan …: 9,8%
Taylor …: 90,2%
¿Por qué Taylor Fritz?
UTR 14,64 vs 15,71
(-1,07)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Stan … | Taylor … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 6,50 | 1,11 | 15,4% |
| Gamdom | 8,80 | 1,09 | 11,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 10,21 | 1,11 | 9,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Stan …: -4,8%
Taylor …: +4,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stan Wawrinka
Ranking
#139
UTR Rating
14,64 Pro
UTR Ranking
#139
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
10/20 = 50,0%
Taylor Fritz
Ranking
#9
UTR Rating
15,71 Pro
UTR Ranking
#11
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
34/50 = 68,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -130,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0647 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,7372 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -4,0000 | |
| points_diff | -3403,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 1,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -18,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -13,8889 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,4000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 68,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 66,6667 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 20,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,6667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -11,4734 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,8080 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,2980 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -6,8020 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,0980 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -5,4900 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -1,8500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 2,4615 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,2213 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6250 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5172 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,9261 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 1,0201 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 49,2705 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1300 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0500 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,0700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7812 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9071 | |
| utr_advantage | -7,0511 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23911
API ID
15345258
Gamdom ID
589734
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23911,
"api_id": 15345258,
"gamdom_id": 589734,
"player1": "Stan Wawrinka",
"player2": "Taylor Fritz",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-24T06:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 6.5,
"p2": 1.11
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 8.8,
"p2": 1.09
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 6.92,
"p2": 1.08
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.0979,
"prob_p2": 0.9021,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.9021,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
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"utr_singles": 14.64,
"utr_ranking": 139,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 10,
"wr_surface_total": 20,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 9,
"utr_singles": 15.71,
"utr_ranking": 11,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 68.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 34,
"wr_surface_total": 50,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
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"form_l10_matches": 10
}
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"utr": {
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},
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"features": {
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"rank_ratio": 0.06474820143884892,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 72.0,
"points_diff": -3403,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -6.802000000000007,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -2.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 68.0,
"utr_advantage": -7.051070840197696,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 1,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.7372493557944724,
"rank_advantage": -130,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.625,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5172413793103449,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -18.0,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.09800000000000608,
"p1_surface_matches": 20,
"p2_surface_matches": 50,
"serve_quality_diff": -11.473399999999998,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 2.4615384615384617,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.221276595744681,
"aces_per_match_diff": -5.49,
"combined_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -4,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.8080000000000069,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.92608703632372,
"serve_consistency_p2": 1.0201286560856184,
"surface_rank_synergy": 49.2704884043005,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.2980000000000018,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.4,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -1.8500000000000085,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.13,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.050000000000000044,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.88888888888888,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
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"feature_importance": {}
}