Stan Wawrinka vs Taylor Fritz
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
24 Ene 2026, 10:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Taylor Fritz
Stan …: 9,8% Taylor …: 90,2%
¿Por qué Taylor Fritz?
UTR 14,64 vs 15,71 (-1,07) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Stan … Taylor … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 6,50 1,11 15,4%
Gamdom 8,80 1,09 11,4%
IA Fair Odds 10,21 1,11 9,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Stan …: -4,8% Taylor …: +4,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stan Wawrinka
Ranking #139
UTR Rating 14,64 Pro
UTR Ranking #139
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 10/20 = 50,0%
Taylor Fritz
Ranking #9
UTR Rating 15,71 Pro
UTR Ranking #11
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 34/50 = 68,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -130,0000
rank_ratio 0,0647
log_rank_ratio -2,7372
rank_tier_advantage -4,0000
points_diff -3403,0000
best_rank_diff 1,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -18,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -13,8889
surface_matches_ratio 0,4000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 68,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 20,0000
p2_surface_matches 50,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -11,4734
first_serve_won_diff -0,8080
second_serve_won_diff -0,2980
bp_saved_diff -6,8020
bp_converted_diff -0,0980
aces_per_match_diff -5,4900
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -1,8500
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 2,4615
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,2213
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6250
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5172
serve_consistency_p1 6,9261
serve_consistency_p2 1,0201
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 49,2705
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1300
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0500
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,0700
utr_p1 0,7812
utr_p2 0,9071
utr_advantage -7,0511
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23911
API ID 15345258
Gamdom ID 589734
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23911,
    "api_id": 15345258,
    "gamdom_id": 589734,
    "player1": "Stan Wawrinka",
    "player2": "Taylor Fritz",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-24T06:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 6.5,
      "p2": 1.11
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 8.8,
      "p2": 1.09
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 6.92,
      "p2": 1.08
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.0979,
    "prob_p2": 0.9021,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9021,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 139,
      "utr_singles": 14.64,
      "utr_ranking": 139,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 20,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 9,
      "utr_singles": 15.71,
      "utr_ranking": 11,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 68.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 34,
      "wr_surface_total": 50,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.64,
      "ranking": 139,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.71,
      "ranking": 11,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7811764705882354,
    "utr_p2": 0.9070588235294119,
    "utr_diff": -1.0700000000000003,
    "rank_ratio": 0.06474820143884892,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": -3403,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -6.802000000000007,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 68.0,
    "utr_advantage": -7.051070840197696,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 1,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.7372493557944724,
    "rank_advantage": -130,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.625,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5172413793103449,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -18.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.09800000000000608,
    "p1_surface_matches": 20,
    "p2_surface_matches": 50,
    "serve_quality_diff": -11.473399999999998,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 2.4615384615384617,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.221276595744681,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -5.49,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.8080000000000069,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.92608703632372,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 1.0201286560856184,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 49.2704884043005,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.2980000000000018,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.4,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -1.8500000000000085,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.13,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.050000000000000044,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.88888888888888,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}