Elena Rybakina vs Tereza Valentová
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
24 Ene 2026, 14:00
24 Ene 2026, 14:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Elena …: 65,0%
Tereza …: 35,0%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elena … | Tereza … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,17 | 5,00 | 85,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,19 | 5,20 | 84,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,54 | 2,86 | 65,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elena …: -16,0%
Tereza …: +16,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
43/55 = 78,2%
Tereza Valentová
Ranking
#54
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
13/16 = 81,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 49,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 10,8000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 2,3795 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| points_diff | 4729,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 51,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -3,0682 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,9746 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,4375 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 78,1818 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 81,2500 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 76,2712 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 75,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 16,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,5636 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,5333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 10,2665 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,6855 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,4200 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 4,9455 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -5,9145 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 3,6489 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,5000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8980 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7273 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6471 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,4489 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,1938 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -7,3009 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2328 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,3615 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -9,2045 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5859 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5859 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23912
API ID
15345432
Gamdom ID
589806
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23912,
"api_id": 15345432,
"gamdom_id": 589806,
"player1": "Elena Rybakina",
"player2": "Tereza Valentov\u00e1",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-24T10:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.17,
"p2": 5.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.19,
"p2": 5.2
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.17,
"p2": 4.87
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.65,
"prob_p2": 0.35,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.65,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 12.98,
"utr_ranking": 1,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
"wr_surface_wins": 43,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 54,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 81.25,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 16,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.98,
"ranking": 1,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5858823529411765,
"utr_p2": 0.5858823529411765,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 10.8,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": 4729,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 4.945454545454552,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 6,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
"surface_wr_p2": 81.25,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 51,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 2.379546134130174,
"rank_advantage": 49,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": -4,
"surface_wr_diff": -3.068181818181813,
"bp_converted_diff": -5.914545454545461,
"p1_surface_matches": 55,
"p2_surface_matches": 16,
"serve_quality_diff": 10.26645454545455,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
"aces_per_match_diff": 3.648863636363636,
"combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 3,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.685454545454547,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.4489327923225215,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.1938437684012415,
"surface_rank_synergy": -7.300880184263022,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 75.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.4200000000000017,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.4375,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0.5,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -9.204545454545439,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.23281818181818192,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.36149999999999993,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.9745762711864401,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}