Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
24 Ene 2026, 08:30
24 Ene 2026, 08:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elise Mertens
Elise …: 76,9%
Nikola …: 23,1%
¿Por qué Elise Mertens?
UTR 12,45 vs 11,99
(+0,46)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elise … | Nikola … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,44 | 2,75 | 69,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,30 | 3,85 | 76,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,30 | 4,33 | 76,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elise …: +11,2%
Nikola …: -11,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elise Mertens
Ranking
#21
UTR Rating
12,45 Pro
UTR Ranking
#27
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
16/29 = 55,2%
Nikola Bartunkova
Ranking
#126
UTR Rating
11,99 Pro
UTR Ranking
#102
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
5/9 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 105,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 6,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,7918 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1374,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 114,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -0,3831 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,3663 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,2222 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 55,1724 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 54,5455 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 54,0171 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 9,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1034 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4200 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6933 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 3,7365 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,9889 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -8,1778 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -4,2444 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,4222 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,5977 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -2,0800 | |
| current_streak_diff | -3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,8301 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,3653 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -0,6865 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0533 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1606 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -0,7663 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,4600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5235 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4694 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,7643 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23913
API ID
15345454
Gamdom ID
589770
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23913,
"api_id": 15345454,
"gamdom_id": 589770,
"player1": "Elise Mertens",
"player2": "Nikola Bartunkova",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-24T04:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.44,
"p2": 2.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.85
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.28,
"p2": 3.67
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7688,
"prob_p2": 0.2312,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7688,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 21,
"utr_singles": 12.45,
"utr_ranking": 27,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 126,
"utr_singles": 11.99,
"utr_ranking": 102,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 9,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 27,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 102,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.46941176470588236,
"utr_diff": 0.4599999999999991,
"rank_ratio": 6.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 1374,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -4.244444444444454,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": -19.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.42,
"surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
"utr_advantage": 3.764320785597374,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 114,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.791759469228055,
"rank_advantage": 105,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -3,
"surface_wr_diff": -0.3831417624521123,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.4222222222222243,
"p1_surface_matches": 29,
"p2_surface_matches": 9,
"serve_quality_diff": 3.736513409961688,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.5977011494252875,
"combined_confidence": 0.6933333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": -3,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.988888888888887,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.830103889052532,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.365334368167385,
"surface_rank_synergy": -0.6864978809302982,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.01709401709402,
"second_serve_won_diff": -8.177777777777791,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.2222222222222223,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -2.079999999999984,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -0.7662835249042246,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.05327586206896551,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.16055555555555556,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.36632996632996234,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}