Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
24 Ene 2026, 08:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elise Mertens
Elise …: 76,9% Nikola …: 23,1%
¿Por qué Elise Mertens?
UTR 12,45 vs 11,99 (+0,46) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elise … Nikola … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,44 2,75 69,4%
Gamdom 1,30 3,85 76,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,30 4,33 76,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Elise …: +11,2% Nikola …: -11,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elise Mertens
Ranking #21
UTR Rating 12,45 Pro
UTR Ranking #27
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 16/29 = 55,2%
Nikola Bartunkova
Ranking #126
UTR Rating 11,99 Pro
UTR Ranking #102
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 5/9 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 105,0000
rank_ratio 6,0000
log_rank_ratio 1,7918
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 1374,0000
best_rank_diff 114,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -0,3831
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,3663
surface_matches_ratio 3,2222
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 55,1724
surface_wr_p2 55,5556
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,5455
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,0171
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 9,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1034
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 0,4200
combined_confidence 0,6933
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 3,7365
first_serve_won_diff 5,9889
second_serve_won_diff -8,1778
bp_saved_diff -4,2444
bp_converted_diff 3,4222
aces_per_match_diff 1,5977
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -2,0800
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8182
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 8,8301
serve_consistency_p2 7,3653
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,6865
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0533
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1606
elite_surface_amplifier -0,7663
UTR
utr_diff 0,4600
utr_p1 0,5235
utr_p2 0,4694
utr_advantage 3,7643
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23913
API ID 15345454
Gamdom ID 589770
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23913,
    "api_id": 15345454,
    "gamdom_id": 589770,
    "player1": "Elise Mertens",
    "player2": "Nikola Bartunkova",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-24T04:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.85
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.28,
      "p2": 3.67
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7688,
    "prob_p2": 0.2312,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7688,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 21,
      "utr_singles": 12.45,
      "utr_ranking": 27,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 126,
      "utr_singles": 11.99,
      "utr_ranking": 102,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.45,
      "ranking": 27,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.99,
      "ranking": 102,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5235294117647058,
    "utr_p2": 0.46941176470588236,
    "utr_diff": 0.4599999999999991,
    "rank_ratio": 6.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 1374,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -4.244444444444454,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": -19.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.42,
    "surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
    "utr_advantage": 3.764320785597374,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 114,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.791759469228055,
    "rank_advantage": 105,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": -0.3831417624521123,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.4222222222222243,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 9,
    "serve_quality_diff": 3.736513409961688,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.5977011494252875,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6933333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.988888888888887,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.830103889052532,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.365334368167385,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.6864978809302982,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.01709401709402,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -8.177777777777791,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.2222222222222223,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -2.079999999999984,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -0.7662835249042246,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.05327586206896551,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.16055555555555556,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.36632996632996234,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}