Marin Čilić vs Casper Ruud
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
24 Ene 2026, 14:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Casper Ruud
Marin …: 25,5% Casper …: 74,5%
¿Por qué Casper Ruud?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Marin … Casper … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,40 33,3%
IA Fair Odds 3,92 1,34 25,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Marin …: -6,3% Casper …: +6,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marin Čilić
Ranking #70
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 9/18 = 50,0%
Casper Ruud
Ranking #13
UTR Rating 15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #22
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/33 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -57,0000
rank_ratio 0,1857
log_rank_ratio -1,6835
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -2005,0000
best_rank_diff -1,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -16,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -11,8919
surface_matches_ratio 0,5455
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 64,8649
p1_surface_matches 18,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 5,0303
first_serve_won_diff 4,1273
second_serve_won_diff -0,8182
bp_saved_diff -1,8076
bp_converted_diff -8,3864
aces_per_match_diff 1,6061
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 78,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff 6,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 2,9500
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6923
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0465
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4286
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 7,0576
serve_consistency_p2 9,2174
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 28,0591
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0570
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1097
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8906
utr_p2 0,8906
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23915
API ID 15345295
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23915,
    "api_id": 15345295,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Marin \u010cili\u0107",
    "player2": "Casper Ruud",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-24T10:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
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      "p2": 1.36
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2551,
    "prob_p2": 0.7449,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7449,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 70,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
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      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 13,
      "utr_singles": 15.57,
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      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
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      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
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      "form_l10_matches": 10
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  },
  "utr": {
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    },
    "p2": {
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      "division": "Pro",
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  },
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    "p1_confidence": 0.6,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
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    "bp_converted_diff": -8.386363636363626,
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    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0465116279069768,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.6060606060606064,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.127272727272725,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.057587387570954,
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    "surface_rank_synergy": 28.059098076463687,
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    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
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  "feature_importance": {}
}