Marin Čilić vs Casper Ruud
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 32
24 Ene 2026, 14:20
24 Ene 2026, 14:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Casper Ruud
Marin …: 25,5%
Casper …: 74,5%
¿Por qué Casper Ruud?
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Marin … | Casper … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,40 | 33,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,92 | 1,34 | 25,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Marin …: -6,3%
Casper …: +6,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marin Čilić
Ranking
#70
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
9/18 = 50,0%
Casper Ruud
Ranking
#13
UTR Rating
15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#22
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/33 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -57,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1857 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,6835 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2005,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -1,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -16,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -11,8919 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5455 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 64,8649 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 18,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,6000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 5,0303 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,1273 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,8182 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,8076 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -8,3864 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,6061 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 6,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 2,9500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6923 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0465 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4286 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5714 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,0576 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,2174 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 28,0591 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0570 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1097 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8906 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8906 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23915
API ID
15345295
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23915,
"api_id": 15345295,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Marin \u010cili\u0107",
"player2": "Casper Ruud",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-24T10:20:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.11,
"p2": 1.36
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2551,
"prob_p2": 0.7449,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7449,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 70,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 9,
"wr_surface_total": 18,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 13,
"utr_singles": 15.57,
"utr_ranking": 22,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.57,
"ranking": 22,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8905882352941177,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.18571428571428572,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 72.0,
"points_diff": -2005,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.8075757575757478,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 5.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.6,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -1,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.6835458845878222,
"rank_advantage": -57,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.42857142857142855,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -16.666666666666657,
"bp_converted_diff": -8.386363636363626,
"p1_surface_matches": 18,
"p2_surface_matches": 33,
"serve_quality_diff": 5.030303030303031,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6923076923076923,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0465116279069768,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.6060606060606064,
"combined_confidence": 0.8,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.127272727272725,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.057587387570954,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.217420276469422,
"surface_rank_synergy": 28.059098076463687,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.86486486486487,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.8181818181818059,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5454545454545454,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 2.9499999999999886,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.05700000000000005,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10966666666666647,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -11.891891891891897,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}