Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
25 Ene 2026, 04:30
25 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 70,5%
Victoria …: 29,5%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,62
(+0,35)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aryna … | Victoria … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,17 | 5,00 | 85,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,17 | 5,80 | 85,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,42 | 3,39 | 70,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aryna …: -10,6%
Victoria …: +10,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
36/42 = 85,7%
Victoria Mboko
Ranking
#16
UTR Rating
12,62 Pro
UTR Ranking
#13
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
20/26 = 76,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 15,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 16,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 2,7726 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 8543,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 15,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 8,7912 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,6570 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,6154 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 85,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 76,9231 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,6087 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 73,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7143 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -4,1273 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,4447 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,4890 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 6,2042 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -3,4767 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,8791 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 8,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1536 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,3667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,1250 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,1028 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,9851 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 24,3744 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3421 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2842 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 8,7912 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5847 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5435 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,7354 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23920
API ID
15345456
Gamdom ID
589755
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23920,
"api_id": 15345456,
"gamdom_id": 589755,
"player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
"player2": "Victoria Mboko",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-25T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.17,
"p2": 5.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.17,
"p2": 5.8
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.16,
"p2": 5.27
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7046,
"prob_p2": 0.2954,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7046,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 12.97,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
"wr_surface_wins": 36,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 16,
"utr_singles": 12.62,
"utr_ranking": 13,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 76.92307692307693,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 13,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5435294117647058,
"utr_diff": 0.3500000000000014,
"rank_ratio": 16.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 92.0,
"points_diff": 8543,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 6.204212454212453,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 8,
"momentum_diff": 7.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
"surface_wr_p2": 76.92307692307693,
"utr_advantage": 2.7354435326299447,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 15,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 2.772588722239781,
"rank_advantage": 15,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.125,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -4,
"surface_wr_diff": 8.791208791208774,
"bp_converted_diff": -3.4767399267399384,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 26,
"serve_quality_diff": -4.127289377289387,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.36666666666666664,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.879120879120879,
"combined_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.44468864468865377,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.1027843943024935,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.985137290385856,
"surface_rank_synergy": 24.374406349360665,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 73.33333333333333,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.4890109890109997,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.6153846153846154,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 8.791208791208774,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3421428571428571,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2842307692307694,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.657004830917874,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}