Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
25 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 70,5% Victoria …: 29,5%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,62 (+0,35) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aryna … Victoria … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,17 5,00 85,5%
Gamdom 1,17 5,80 85,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,42 3,39 70,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Aryna …: -10,6% Victoria …: +10,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 36/42 = 85,7%
Victoria Mboko
Ranking #16
UTR Rating 12,62 Pro
UTR Ranking #13
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 20/26 = 76,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 15,0000
rank_ratio 16,0000
log_rank_ratio 2,7726
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 8543,0000
best_rank_diff 15,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 8,7912
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,6570
surface_matches_ratio 1,6154
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 85,7143
surface_wr_p2 76,9231
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,6087
surface_wr_p2_stable 73,3333
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 26,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7143
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,8667
combined_confidence 0,9333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,1273
first_serve_won_diff -0,4447
second_serve_won_diff -0,4890
bp_saved_diff 6,2042
bp_converted_diff -3,4767
aces_per_match_diff -1,8791
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 8,0000
match_load_diff -4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1536
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,3667
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,1250
serve_consistency_p1 7,1028
serve_consistency_p2 10,9851
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 24,3744
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3421
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2842
elite_surface_amplifier 8,7912
UTR
utr_diff 0,3500
utr_p1 0,5847
utr_p2 0,5435
utr_advantage 2,7354
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23920
API ID 15345456
Gamdom ID 589755
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23920,
    "api_id": 15345456,
    "gamdom_id": 589755,
    "player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
    "player2": "Victoria Mboko",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-25T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.17,
      "p2": 5.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.17,
      "p2": 5.8
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.16,
      "p2": 5.27
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7046,
    "prob_p2": 0.2954,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7046,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 12.97,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 16,
      "utr_singles": 12.62,
      "utr_ranking": 13,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 76.92307692307693,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.97,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.62,
      "ranking": 13,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5847058823529413,
    "utr_p2": 0.5435294117647058,
    "utr_diff": 0.3500000000000014,
    "rank_ratio": 16.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": 8543,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 6.204212454212453,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 8,
    "momentum_diff": 7.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2": 76.92307692307693,
    "utr_advantage": 2.7354435326299447,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 15,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.772588722239781,
    "rank_advantage": 15,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.125,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -4,
    "surface_wr_diff": 8.791208791208774,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.4767399267399384,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 26,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.127289377289387,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.36666666666666664,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.879120879120879,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.44468864468865377,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.1027843943024935,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.985137290385856,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 24.374406349360665,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 73.33333333333333,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.4890109890109997,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.6153846153846154,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 8.791208791208774,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3421428571428571,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2842307692307694,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.657004830917874,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}