Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
25 Ene 2026, 06:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos …: 83,9% Tommy …: 16,1%
¿Por qué Carlos Alcaraz?
UTR 16,32 vs 15,63 (+0,69) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Carlos … Tommy … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,08 8,00 92,6%
Gamdom 1,10 8,20 90,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,19 6,20 83,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Carlos …: -4,2% Tommy …: +4,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 37/43 = 86,0%
Tommy Paul
Ranking #20
UTR Rating 15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #15
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 16/23 = 69,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 19,0000
rank_ratio 20,0000
log_rank_ratio 2,9957
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 10000,0000
best_rank_diff 7,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 16,4813
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 14,4090
surface_matches_ratio 1,8696
surface_tournaments_won_diff 4,0000
surface_wr_p1 86,0465
surface_wr_p2 69,5652
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,9787
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 43,0000
p2_surface_matches 23,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7209
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,7667
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,4334
first_serve_won_diff 2,6411
second_serve_won_diff 4,6331
bp_saved_diff 3,0715
bp_converted_diff 2,9679
aces_per_match_diff -1,1385
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 6,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,4203
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1093
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4167
serve_consistency_p1 4,4457
serve_consistency_p2 10,1969
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 49,3735
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3415
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2147
elite_surface_amplifier 16,4813
UTR
utr_diff 0,6900
utr_p1 0,9788
utr_p2 0,8976
utr_advantage 4,3192
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23925
API ID 15345277
Gamdom ID 589717
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23925,
    "api_id": 15345277,
    "gamdom_id": 589717,
    "player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
    "player2": "Tommy Paul",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-25T02:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.08,
      "p2": 8.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.1,
      "p2": 8.2
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.1,
      "p2": 7.16
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8386,
    "prob_p2": 0.1614,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8386,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 16.32,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
      "wr_surface_wins": 37,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 20,
      "utr_singles": 15.63,
      "utr_ranking": 15,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 16.32,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.63,
      "ranking": 15,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9788235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.8976470588235295,
    "utr_diff": 0.6899999999999995,
    "rank_ratio": 20.0,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": 10000,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.0714863498483282,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 6,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 86.04651162790698,
    "surface_wr_p2": 69.56521739130434,
    "utr_advantage": 4.319248826291076,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 7,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.995732273553991,
    "rank_advantage": 19,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4166666666666667,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": 16.481294236602636,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.9679474216380157,
    "p1_surface_matches": 43,
    "p2_surface_matches": 23,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.43339737108190945,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.4203389830508475,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1093247588424437,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.1385237613751258,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.6410515672396286,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7209302325581395,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.445674932014271,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.196943786128871,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 49.3735450545299,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.97872340425532,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.633063700707787,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.8695652173913044,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 16.481294236602636,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.34146511627906984,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.21465217391304348,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 14.40898345153665,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 4,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}