Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
25 Ene 2026, 11:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 51,3% Learner …: 48,7%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
UTR 15,81 vs 15,57 (+0,24) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daniil … Learner … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,50 2,63 66,7%
Gamdom 1,48 2,85 67,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,95 2,05 51,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Daniil …: -12,4% Learner …: +12,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #8
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 30/46 = 65,2%
Learner Tien
Ranking #29
UTR Rating 15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #24
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 35/50 = 70,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 17,0000
rank_ratio 2,4167
log_rank_ratio 0,8824
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1370,0000
best_rank_diff 25,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -4,7826
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -4,5185
surface_matches_ratio 0,9200
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,2174
surface_wr_p2 70,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 64,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 68,5185
p1_surface_matches 46,0000
p2_surface_matches 50,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3043
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 14,1951
first_serve_won_diff 9,4817
second_serve_won_diff -0,6365
bp_saved_diff 1,9501
bp_converted_diff -8,7263
aces_per_match_diff 4,8226
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 3,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,3333
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,3814
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8483
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5238
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6429
serve_consistency_p1 3,5791
serve_consistency_p2 6,7618
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -4,2201
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1352
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2170
elite_surface_amplifier -4,7826
UTR
utr_diff 0,2400
utr_p1 0,9188
utr_p2 0,8906
utr_advantage 1,5296
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23926
API ID 15345279
Gamdom ID 589707
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23926,
    "api_id": 15345279,
    "gamdom_id": 589707,
    "player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
    "player2": "Learner Tien",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-25T07:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5,
      "p2": 2.63
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.48,
      "p2": 2.85
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.43,
      "p2": 2.8
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5126,
    "prob_p2": 0.4874,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5126,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 15.81,
      "utr_ranking": 8,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
      "wr_surface_wins": 30,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 29,
      "utr_singles": 15.57,
      "utr_ranking": 24,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 70.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 35,
      "wr_surface_total": 50,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.81,
      "ranking": 8,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.57,
      "ranking": 24,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.8905882352941177,
    "utr_diff": 0.2400000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 2.4166666666666665,
    "h2h_matches": 3,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": 1370,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.9500869565217442,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 7.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
    "surface_wr_p2": 70.0,
    "utr_advantage": 1.5296367112810718,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 25,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.8823891801984737,
    "rank_advantage": 17,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -4.782608695652172,
    "bp_converted_diff": -8.726347826086965,
    "p1_surface_matches": 46,
    "p2_surface_matches": 50,
    "serve_quality_diff": 14.19508695652172,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.822608695652174,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 9.481652173913034,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.19999999999999998,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.38137729427361544,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.5790546879100957,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.7617999627374035,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -4.220122166166612,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 68.51851851851852,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.636521739130437,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.92,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -4.782608695652172,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.13517391304347826,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.21699999999999997,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.518518518518519,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}