Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
25 Ene 2026, 11:25
25 Ene 2026, 11:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 51,3%
Learner …: 48,7%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
UTR 15,81 vs 15,57
(+0,24)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Daniil … | Learner … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,50 | 2,63 | 66,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,48 | 2,85 | 67,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,95 | 2,05 | 51,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Daniil …: -12,4%
Learner …: +12,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking
#12
UTR Rating
15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking
#8
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
30/46 = 65,2%
Learner Tien
Ranking
#29
UTR Rating
15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#24
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
35/50 = 70,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 17,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,4167 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,8824 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1370,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 25,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -4,7826 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -4,5185 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9200 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 65,2174 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 64,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 68,5185 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 46,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3043 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 14,1951 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 9,4817 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,6365 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,9501 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -8,7263 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,8226 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 3,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,3814 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8483 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5238 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6429 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,5791 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,7618 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -4,2201 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1352 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2170 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -4,7826 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9188 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8906 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,5296 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23926
API ID
15345279
Gamdom ID
589707
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23926,
"api_id": 15345279,
"gamdom_id": 589707,
"player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
"player2": "Learner Tien",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-25T07:25:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5,
"p2": 2.63
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.48,
"p2": 2.85
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.43,
"p2": 2.8
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5126,
"prob_p2": 0.4874,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5126,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 12,
"utr_singles": 15.81,
"utr_ranking": 8,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
"wr_surface_wins": 30,
"wr_surface_total": 46,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 29,
"utr_singles": 15.57,
"utr_ranking": 24,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 70.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 35,
"wr_surface_total": 50,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 8,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 24,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8905882352941177,
"utr_diff": 0.2400000000000002,
"rank_ratio": 2.4166666666666665,
"h2h_matches": 3,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 92.0,
"points_diff": 1370,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.9500869565217442,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 7.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
"surface_wr_p2": 70.0,
"utr_advantage": 1.5296367112810718,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 25,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.8823891801984737,
"rank_advantage": 17,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -4.782608695652172,
"bp_converted_diff": -8.726347826086965,
"p1_surface_matches": 46,
"p2_surface_matches": 50,
"serve_quality_diff": 14.19508695652172,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.822608695652174,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 9.481652173913034,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.19999999999999998,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.38137729427361544,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.5790546879100957,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.7617999627374035,
"surface_rank_synergy": -4.220122166166612,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 68.51851851851852,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.636521739130437,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.92,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -4.782608695652172,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.13517391304347826,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.21699999999999997,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.518518518518519,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}